The Brewers made their biggest free agent acquisition of the offseason on Monday, when they signed veteran lefty Jose Quintana to a one-year deal. Quintana isn’t the player he used to be, but he’s still a solid innings eater, and he’s likely assured a spot in Milwaukee’s rotation (assuming he is healthy). That changes some things elsewhere on the staff, so let’s take a quick look at the situation with the team’s pitchers and make a prediction about how things might shake out come Opening Day (again, assuming health).
The five-man rotation
Assuming the Brewers even go with a five-man rotation—there is precedent for them using a six-man group, at least early in the season—I think those five spots are now pretty well spoken for.
The most obvious inclusions here are Freddy Peralta and Nestor Cortes, who you might refer to as 1a and 1b in this rotation. Peralta will be the guy on Opening Day and is viewed as the staff leader, but Cortes isn’t far behind Peralta in terms of actual results; I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a better season.
After those two, you have to imagine that Tobias Myers is locked into the third spot, as it’s difficult for me to imagine what he could do wrong during spring training to undo the goodwill he built up during last season. I would also expect Aaron Civale, who the Brewers picked up last July, to be a guaranteed inclusion in the starting rotation. I don’t think Civale’s stuff makes a ton of sense out of the bullpen, for one thing, and for another, he’s one of the most expensive players on the roster (at $8 million this season, only Christian Yelich and Rhys Hoskins will be paid more).
An aside: since Civale is only a year from free agency on a big contract and since Mark Attanasio reportedly asked Matt Arnold to sniff around his trade value this offseason are all reasons why I wouldn’t be shocked if Civale were offloaded at some point this season if the Brewers find a deal that makes sense for them. I’m not sure exactly what that could look like, but I could see them try to make an opportunistic deal even if they’re in the thick of the race come July, particularly if one of the young players I’ll talk about below look ready to step up.
That leaves a fifth rotation spot open for Jose Quintana. There were a variety of players who could have filled this position, but with Quintana acquired, he seems the de facto choice. Brandon Woodruff is also in the mix and will be part of the rotation at some point this season, but there’s enough murkiness around his timeline right now that I’ll merely mention him and move on. These things tend to work themselves out.
Where does that leave Aaron Ashby and DL Hall?
Coming into spring training, it was assumed that one of Aaron Ashby and DL Hall—two pitchers with good stuff and solid pedigrees who haven’t really been able to put it together at the major league level yet—would be the fifth member of the starting rotation. Hall’s lat injury, which puts him a couple weeks behind, maybe took him out of the running. But the addition of Quintana probably eliminates Ashby from the rotation, too, at least at the start of the season.
If the Brewers want Ashby to start (and they still have some real money committed to him, so they probably do) there will surely be opportunities for him to do so. Remember how many times broadcasters told us how many starting pitchers the Brewers used last season? I think it was about 200 by the end of the season, if I recall correctly. So, Ashby will certainly get that shot if the team wants him to.
But it’s also just possible that Ashby is better as a relief pitcher than he is as a starter. In 2024, Ashby started once in April and once in June. The June start wasn’t bad, but the April one wasn’t good. He then went back to the minors and came back to Milwaukee as a reliever in late August; from then until the end of the season, he made 12 fantastic appearances: in 19 2⁄3 innings he allowed just three runs, walked only three, and struck out 28. The trend held in the minors. Ashby wasn’t nearly as good as a reliever at Triple-A Nashville but he was a whole lot worse as a starter, when he had an ERA over 8 in 16 starts.
Ashby’s stuff still looks great, and he can throw enough pitches that he could start, but the results so far haven’t been good for him in that role. He has a real chance to be a difference-maker in the bullpen, and if he locks himself into a prominent role there (maybe as set-up man?) Milwaukee might just leave him there.
Of course, this was all written before Ashby suffered an injury to his oblique in his Monday evening spring training start. That obviously changes things, and even if the injury isn’t particularly serious, it seems like he may need to start the season on the IL, and almost certainly would not be stretched out for starting whenever he is healthy enough to return.
Speaking of, what Hall needs is to get healthy and stay healthy, and then we’ll revisit this conversation. It does not seem like Hall will be ready for Opening Day either, though with Ashby also hurt it seems possible that the Brewers could accelerate Hall’s timeline if they think he would be close. The most likely scenario, though, is that they both start the season on the injured list. Disappointing.
Who is in the bullpen mix?
With those five rotation pieces and Ashby likely facing an IL stint, that leaves us with eight open spots. Trevor Megill and Joel Payamps are the two obvious inclusions for two of those spots, and I’d say the way that Jared Koenig pitched last season probably secured him a place, too. Among the other contenders for the bullpen Nick Mears, Tyler Alexander (who was signed on a major league deal), and Connor Thomas (who is a Rule 5 pick, and thus must be on the team or be returned to St. Louis) cannot be optioned to the minors without the risk of losing them.
Mears, particularly, seems to be a lock for the bullpen. He was acquired because he had solid stuff and underlying numbers that suggested there could be something there, and the Brewers didn’t give up nothing to get him (the cost was minor leaguers Yujanyer Herrera and Bradley Blalock). Yes, Mears has struggled mightily with the home run ball in his major league career, but I don’t think the Brewers are willing to give up on him yet.
Thomas has pitched 3 2⁄3 innings this spring and hasn’t yet allowed a hit. If he has a strong spring, I think there’s a good chance he’s on the team. Alexander had one very rough outing, but we’ll keep an eye on him.
The 40-man roster also includes Bryan Hudson and Elvis Peguero, who both pitched extensively in the majors last year, Abner Uribe, who was expected to play a big role before a disastrous 2024 season, and recent signings Elvin Rodríguez, Grant Wolfram, and Grant Anderson. Hudson, of course, was stellar for most of last season but faded badly and ended the season in the minor leagues, and I think with Hudson it really depends on what the coaches think of his stuff at the end of spring. Peguero wasn’t everyone’s favorite, but he throws really hard and his results last season were pretty good, even if he lost some trust down the stretch.
There could be some Logan Henderson around, too. I expect he’ll get a shot at some point this season, but I think he’s probably going to be tried first in the rotation. Craig Yoho will also probably feature at some point this season. Personally, I’d like to see him early, but he’s not yet on the 40-man roster and the Brewers may wait until someone inevitably needs to hit the 60-day IL before they add him. Jacob Misiorowski is in this category as well. I suspect we’ll see him this season, but not until later.
My prediction
Someone will probably get hurt, but as of today, March 4, here’s my official prediction for the pitching staff on opening day:
Aaron CivaleNestor CortesTobias MyersFreddy PeraltaJose Quintana
Tyler AlexanderBryan HudsonJared KoenigNick MearsTrevor MegillJoel PayampsElvis PegueroConnor Thomas
IL: Woodruff, Hall, Ashby
The injuries to Ashby and Hall are probably good news for Bryan Hudson, as it makes his left arm a rarer commodity. Those injuries now also seem to all but assure a spot for Tyler Alexander, who has no minor league options and is the only starting rotation depth piece with any significant major league experience. One more injury to a starter (or to Alexander) would likely mean good things for Elvin Rodríguez, another swingy type.
There’s always a chance that Abner Uribe finds his way on the roster, too (remember he still needs to serve a suspension), and I think he’d be the next guy here if one of the short-relief guys gets injured (or if Thomas flames out). I do expect to see Craig Yoho and Jacob Misiorowski in the mix sometime this season, but probably not until the front office can see what it has with some of these other options.
