Are the Cincinnati Reds trading Hunter Greene?

Could the Cincinnati Reds be looking to trade Hunter Greene? That’s the rumor de jour that’s floating around the internet baseball world. The latest in a line of “rumors” about this is from everyone’s favorite former Reds general manager Jim Bowden. This morning at The Athletic he released a “top 10 MLB starts most likely to be traded” list and Hunter Greene was at #3 on the list.

Of course the first two things he says is that there have been several reports that the team is planning to shop Greene this winter and that he’s not been able to confirm those reports. He then notes that he doesn’t understand why they would even consider it.

All three of those things tell us a lot. First is that he hasn’t been able to confirm the reports, which as far as I can tell are pretty much just writers speculating – like Bowden is – that the team might move him based on the fact that the team has more starting pitchers if everyone is healthy than they have spots in the rotation and that it would be trading from a strength/depth in order for them to bring in a bat that they need but likely won’t even attempt to acquire in free agency because of the budget set forth by ownership. Second is that even someone like Bowden can’t understand why the team would even consider doing such a move with Greene right now.

Of course there’s also the part where two weeks ago when president of baseball operations Nick Krall and general manager Brad Meador had their end of the season media scrum, Krall was asked about the team trading Greene specifically and he had this to say, as reported in the Cincinnati Enquirer:

“I don’t want to speculate on anybody that’s going to get traded or not traded at this point,” Krall said when asked about Greene. “Because we haven’t had any conversations with other clubs. I don’t know what the needs are out there. I don’t know what people are available as well.”

That day two weeks ago is likely what has fueled many of these rumors. The answer wasn’t simply “No” and that allows anyone and everyone to speculate. But if we are all being honest, you can’t really say no. Taking someone entirely off of the table in trade talks should never happen. There is a possibility that a deal could be made for anyone and everyone. In many cases those deals are simply never going to be offered. The Athletics aren’t going to come calling and offering Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, and Shea Langeliers for Hunter Greene. But in theory if they did you are going to almost assuredly take that deal. Which is why you never say “no” to that kind of question.

Hunter Greene is one of the best pitchers in baseball. While I have some issues with Fangraphs version of WAR, they make it very easy to sort their leaderboards and since the start of 2024 Greene has the 18th most WAR among starting pitchers. If we look at Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, Greene has 61% more WAR in that same time (10.6 bWAR vs 6.6 fWAR). Among pitchers with at least 150 innings over the last two years only five pitchers have a lower ERA than Greene. Four of the six pitchers directly behind him have fewer than 200 innings in the last two seasons, and one other – Corbin Burnes – has 258.2 innings, which is two more outs recorded than Greene has since 2024 began.

Like plenty of pitchers, Greene has missed some time in the last two seasons as he has managed just 45 starts. Among the top 10 pitchers in ERA over the last two years with at least 150 innings pitched only three pitchers have made 50 or more starts – Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Zack Wheeler. Only nine of the top 20 meet that criteria. Only 15 of the top 30 meet that criteria. Staying healthy is a problem for pitchers all around this league and isn’t limited to just Hunter Greene and the Cincinnati Reds.

But let’s rewind a little bit and go with another big reason that even Jim Bowden says none of this makes sense: Greene’s contract is a small market team’s dream. Despite being one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, Greene makes roughly $8.3M next year, then gets a raise to $15.3M in 2027 and to $16.3M in 2028. After that he has a team option for $21M in 2029 that includes a $2M buyout.

Teams like the Cincinnati Reds can barely dream of having elite level talent at prices like that. Why would they ever trade something like that away? Short of a scenario that almost assuredly will never be put on the table in front of them, they wouldn’t.

The Reds may very well try to trade some starting pitching this offseason to add some offensive talent to their lineup. But no one on the pitching staff has anything like the combination of stuff, performance, value, and contract that Greene has. Trading anyone else makes far more sense before trading Greene.