Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240MM contract with the Dodgers ended an intriguing trip through free agency for the outfielder, as Tucker opted for a shorter-term deal with an extremely high average annual value and some built-in flexibility (opt-outs after the 2027 and 2028 seasons) over a longer-term pact. Multiple reports suggested that Tucker’s only true long-term offer on the table came from the Blue Jays, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the terms of Toronto’s offer were $350MM over ten years.
This is more in line with the 11-year, $400MM projection that MLB Trade Rumors predicted for Tucker at the start of the offseason. That price tag was naturally going to keep many teams out of the bidding from the onset, but even among the larger-market teams, there seemed to be a reluctance to give Tucker a long-term commitment — perhaps due to the injuries that cost him time over the last two seasons, and contributed to his second-half slump with the Cubs last year. The Mets were Tucker’s other primary suitor but New York was reportedly only willing to offer a frontloaded four-year deal worth $220MM with multiple opt-outs.
In terms of pure dollars, the $350MM would’ve tied for the seventh-priciest deal in baseball history, and only 15 contracts have ever topped a $35MM average annual value. It would’ve been the largest free agent deal in Blue Jays history but not their largest contract altogether, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 14-year, $500MM extension from last spring takes that title. The Jays have gone bigger in the past, however, as they made Shohei Ohtani an offer similar to the heavily-deferred ten-year, $700MM pact that the superstar took from the Dodgers during the 2023-24 offseason.
This now marks the fourth time in three offseasons that the Jays have made a huge push for a player who eventually signed with the Dodgers, between Tucker, Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki. Given how the latter three played major roles in Los Angeles’ World Series triumph over Toronto last fall, missing out on Tucker as well adds some sting to the Blue Jays’ unsuccessful pursuit. It also didn’t help that longtime shortstop Bo Bichette then signed with the Mets on a three-year, $126MM deal that also included two opt-outs, leaving Toronto coming up short on seemingly their top two position-player targets of the offseason.
That being said, the Kazuma Okamoto signing filled a hole in the Blue Jays’ infield, and led to some speculation that signing Tucker for the outfield was more of priority for the Jays than reuniting with Bichette. There’s also the fact that Toronto had years to discuss long-term extensions with Bichette when he was under team control, and the acquisition of Andres Gimenez from the Guardians last winter seemed to hint that the Jays were preparing for a post-Bichette era at shortstop.
Had Tucker accepted the Blue Jays’ offer, he would’ve joined Guerrero as the team’s lineup cornerstones for the next decade. He also would’ve solidified a Jays outfield that has George Springer and Daulton Varsho both scheduled to hit free agency next winter, even though Springer primarily worked as a DH in 2025. The Jays are certainly hoping that Anthony Santander (their biggest signing from last offseason) can rebound from what was essentially a lost 2025 campaign, and Okamoto’s signing probably means that breakout star Addison Barger may be utilized more as a right fielder than as a third baseman.
For now, Toronto’s regular outfield looks pretty similar to their 2025 plan — Varsho in center field, Springer and Santander perhaps splitting time between DH and one corner slot, and some combination of Barger, Nathan Lukes, and Davis Schneider all getting time in the other corner spot. Barger figures to play some third base and Schneider can play second base, further aiding manager John Schneider’s ability to find at-bats for everyone.
Of course, it is also possible that the Blue Jays might still bolster their outfield picture with another new face. Cody Bellinger has been on the Jays’ radar both this winter and in past offseasons, and he is reportedly looking for a longer-term deal than the five-year deal in the $155MM range the Yankees have apparently put on the table. The Mets have also been linked to Bellinger’s market, though that could change now that the Amazins have splurged on Bichette. The Jays’ willingness to offer Tucker 10 years obviously doesn’t mean they’ll readily offer Bellinger anything beyond five years, but Toronto has been so aggressive in free agency that it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team pivoted to the best outfielder remaining on the open market.
Landing Tucker would’ve been another coup in what has already been an expensive offseason in Toronto. Dylan Cease’s seven-year, $210MM contract is the biggest free agent deal in franchise history, and the Jays have also invested heavily in Okamoto (four years/$60MM), Tyler Rogers (three years/$37MM), and Cody Ponce (three years/$30MM). The Blue Jays’ payroll has already soared to record heights, with RosterResource’s projection of a $310.5MM luxury tax number already putting the Jays over the maximum penalty line of $304MM. This comes with a 90 percent surcharge for the Jays as a penalty for their second consecutive year as tax payors, so Tucker’s $35MM AAV for 2026 would’ve come with a big tax hit of $31.5MM.
As much as ownership is clearly willing to spend in pursuit of a championship, one wonders if Tucker (or Bichette) represented a special circumstance, and the Jays aren’t willing to spend to such a huge extent for Bellinger or any other prominent free agents remaining. Toronto could look to lower-cost free agents or to the trade market to address any other roster holes.
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