Braves’ run prevention was really good coming into this series. Through Sunday’s win over Cleveland, the Braves had a league-best 59 ERA-, a sixth-in-MLB 89 FIP-, and a pedestrian 99 xFIP-. The pitching performance was just okay, but a combination of favorable HR/FB stuff (yay, the universe owes them for last season) and top-three defensive play cured pretty much every ill.
And then, the Marlins came to town. They blasted the Braves with BABIP, homers, and everything in between in the first game. Grant Holmes came in with a 63/110/115 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-), and was dealt a 166/78/94 outing by the vagaries of fate and the Marlins’ bats. Basically: he didn’t pitch well but the team kept runs off the board, and then he pitched okay and the runs piled up on him anyway. Reynaldo Lopez came in with a 28/128/112 line, and was dealt a 133/63/89 start, which was pretty much the exact same outcome (except that no reliever hung a curve for a three-run homer and the Braves won). The Braves are still first in ERA-, and sixth in FIP-, but they’ve moved up to tenth in xFIP- while having 15 runs dumped on them in two games. The Marlins, meanwhile, have continued doing what they’ve done so far this season — they have a top-ten wOBA and bottom ten xwOBA, have the league’s biggest favorable variance in this regard, and if you’ve watched these first two games, you get it: holy every grounder finds a hole, Batman!
So, now we’ve got Bryce Elder lined up for the rubber game. Elder’s line? 25/73/86. That’s better, worlds better, than the frankly-subpar pre-Marlins performances of Holmes and Lopez, but the same giant run prevention gap applies. There’s added intrigue, too. Elder was brilliant in his first two outings of the year, showing a completely different approach to pitching and a much more exaggerated (and effective, and not all over the place, or mechanically problematic for long stretches) slider. Then, he faced the Guardians, and it was… if not Bad Elder, at least, Unremarkable Elder. But, honestly, nah — he was bad. A 3/3 K/BB ratio and his first homer allowed (a no-doubter). In essence, the Elder “regression” that everyone feared.
So, what’s Elder going to do now? In the first two games of this series, the Marlins upended things and drove a dagger into the positioning-and-defense run prevention the Braves had used as their aegis to this point. His career against the Marlins has been a mixed bag — better starts (but with some clunkers mixed in) through 2024, and then two struggle bugs in 2025. Not that it really matters, this might be a different Elder at this point. Or, it might be the same old Elder, based on his most recent start. I have no idea. I don’t think anyone does, including Bryce Elder. We’ll see what happens.
Countering Elder in this rubber game will be Chris Paddack, who signed a one-year, $4 million contract to pitch in Miami in the offseason. Paddack’s 2026 experience has been the opposite of that for the Braves thus far (except in this series): he has a 150/125/97 line in two starts and a relief appearance. He had a bizarre Marlins debut (6/0 K/BB ratio, but two homers and eight runs charged), then a blergh long relief appearance (4/4 K/BB ratio) where he was charged with just a single unearned run, and then a mixed bag start against the Tigers (4/1 K/BB ratio, a homer. Paddack has pitched pretty well against the Braves in his career (3.36 FIP, 4.14 xFIP), but it’s just a handful of outings spread across the now-kinda-long arc of his career. The Braves didn’t do much against him in two outings last year, but that was kind of par for the course for them.
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, April 15, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Streaming: MLB.tv (and Braves.tv if you’re in-market, etc.)
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
(Also, a moment of silence for the hilarious readout on the MLB.com preview that lists the Marlins’ TV provider as Marlins.TV, presented by Werner, Hoffman, Greig & Garcia. Between this and the clown show that is the forced spelling of loanDepot Park, please contract the Marlins and open a more serious franchise somewhere.)
