The Dodgers handled business in the Wild Card round against the Reds, with a mostly-stress-free two game sweep. The offense and starting pitching were as advertised, while the bullpen and defense were also as advertised (derogatory). Now, the Dodgers head east to begin a best-of-five series with the NL East champion Phillies, who finished as the two-seed in the NL. They went 96-66 in the regular season, three games better than the Dodgers. Perhaps importantly for this series, their 55-26 record at home was the best in baseball while the Dodgers only finished a game over .500 (41-40) on the road. The Dodgers went to Philly for their first domestic road trip of the season back in April and the Phillies took two of three. They met again in LA just a couple weeks ago and the Phillies won the first two games of the series, but the Dodgers avoided a sweep in the finale. The season series was very close in total, with the Phillies taking four of six but only outscoring the Dodgers by one in the six games. Chad predicted the roster earlier today, so I mostly went off his predictions.
Dodgers Rotation
The Dodgers’ rotation is in a pretty good spot. Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were both excellent in their Wild Card starts, and would be on normal rest for Games 2 and 3. Snell would also potentially be available if the series goes to a Game 5, which would take place a week from tomorrow. Shohei Ohtani will get the ball in Game 1 of the series and could also be available in Game 5, and Tyler Glasnow is still waiting in the wings after being in the bullpen (but not being used) in the Wild Card round. Emmet Sheehan did pitch in relief Wednesday against the Reds, but had a really tough time (two hits, two walks and two runs while recording one out). I’d assume he remains in relief in this series and they go Ohtani-Snell-Yamamoto-Glasnow-Snell/Ohtani in the five games.
Dodgers Bullpen
Y.i.k.e.s. The Dodger bullpen was a glaring weakness all season, and they did nothing to counter that in the Wild Card round. Snell left Game 1 with a 10-2 lead and Yamamoto left Game 2 with a 7-2 lead. The bullpen game in to some very low-pressure scenarios and could not throw strikes. In Game 1, Alex Vesia came in and faced three batters, allowing a single and walking his final batter. Edgardo Henriquez came in for him and loaded the bases with a walk, allowed a run to score on another walk and gave up a run-scoring single. Jack Dreyer relieved him, and walked in another run before getting the final two outs. Three runs on two hits and three left on base with three relievers used is absolutely insane. The pen as a whole was mostly better in Game 2, as Sheehan struggled but Blake Treinen threw a scoreless inning, Vesia got Sheehan out of trouble and Roki Sasaki came in for the ninth. Sasaki looked absolutely dominant, attacking the zone and striking out two in a perfect inning to close out the series. They didn’t use Tanner Scott or Justin Wrobleski in the series.
Sasaki could be the difference maker for this bullpen. You can’t really expect all the starters to go 7/8 innings against a lineup as potent as the Phillies, so obviously the rest of the pen needs to step it up. However, having a potential shutdown guy like Sasaki could play huge dividends. Sasaki looked phenomenal in his two Major League relief outings in the regular season and in his playoff debut. For a team with a bunch of relievers that seemingly cannot throw strikes, Sasaki threw 25 pitches in his two regular season relief outings and 19 of them were strikes. On Wednesday, nine of his 11 pitches were strikes. Combine that with him sitting 100 on his fastball and running an 80 percent whiff rate on his splitter, and the Dodgers might finally have a dependable arm.
They only went with 11 pitchers in the Wild Card round, so there should be another reliever or two in the NLDS. Clayton Kershaw will be added and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Anthony Banda gets added. That would make the bullpen extremely lefty-heavy against a pretty lefty-heavy Phillies lineup.
Dodgers Offense
The Dodger offense was pretty up-and-down this season, but looked pretty strong against a good Reds pitching staff. Andy Pages and Max Muncy struggled, combining to go 1-for-16 in the two games. However, the rest of the offense was on point. Led by Mookie Betts (6-for-9 with three doubles) and five homers from Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman, the offense put up 18 runs in the two games and scored in more innings (nine) than they didn’t score (seven).
The x-factor in this series is Will Smith. The Phillies’ rotation should feature three lefties and their bullpen has three tough lefties (more on that in a bit), so having another big righty bat could be important. Ben Rortvedt was excellent down the stretch and in the Wild Card round, but has a .482 career OPS against lefties. Smith was reportedly available to hit in the Wild Card round but wasn’t really needed, so it’s hard to know exactly how healthy his hand is coming in to this series. Here are Chad’s lineup predictions.
Vs. RHP Ohtani DHBetts SSFreeman 1BMuncy 3BT. Hernandez RFEdman 2BPages CFE. Hernandez LFRortvedt C
Vs. LHPOhtani DHBetts SSHernandez RFFreeman 1BEdman 2BPages CFMuncy 3BE. Hernandez LFRortvedt C
This seems right to me if Smith isn’t ready to catch nine innings. Could definitely see Miguel Rojas getting a game against a lefty over Muncy or over Edman depending on the health of his ankle.
Phillies Rotation
The only certainty so far is that Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for the Phils in Game 1. Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo feel like shoe-ins for the rotation. The fourth starter is where things get trickier. Aaron Nola had the worst season of his career with a 6.01 ERA in 17 games. Old friend Walker Buehler only pitched three times for the Phillies after signing there on August 31. He combined to throw 13 1/3 innings and allowed 10 hits and only one run. Granted, he wasn’t facing great offenses (Kansas City, Arizona and Miami) and only had eight strikeouts with six walks. Buehler sort of feels like Enrique Hernandez, in that no matter how bad the regular season went you expect them to come up big in October.
Whether it’s Nola or Buehler, the Phillies figure to have three or four left-handed starts this series. The Dodgers had the third-best wRC+ against lefties this season (111) and had the fifth-highest hard-hit rate against lefties (34.2 percent). Not sure how much that matters considering the Angels (35.4 percent) and Rockies (34.8 percent) are two of the four teams that beat the Dodgers in that regard, but still. Muncy was ravaged with injuries this season, but was arguably the worst semi-regular Dodger against lefties this season. Among Dodgers with 50+ plate appearances against lefties, Muncy’s .564 OPS against them was the worst. Even worse than that of Michael Conforto, who actually out-OPS’d Teo and Mookie against lefties as well. Rojas posted an .879 OPS against lefties, so while Muncy is the guy it wouldn’t be a shock to see Rojas spell Muncy at least once this series. Sanchez (.479 OPS against lefties), Luzardo (.514) and Suarez (.611) were all hell on lefty batters as well.
Phillies Bullpen
Like the rotation, the Phillies bullpen figures feature some tough lefties. Lefties Tanner Banks and Matt Strahm were the most-used Philly relievers this season. Banks posted a 3.07 ERA in 67 1/3 and Strahm posted a 2.74 in 62 1/3. Jose Alvarez is out for the season, but Tim Mayaza served as the third lefty in the pen down the stretch. He allowed four runs in 7 1/3 innings for the Phils this season but overall this season he faced 27 lefties and allowed five hits (one double) and two walks with nine strikeouts.
The righties in the pen aren’t half bad either, led by Jhoan Duran. Duran was arguably the biggest piece dealt at the deadline and he didn’t disappoint, allowing five runs in 20 2/3 innings after the deadline with 27 strikeouts and only one walk. He only allowed three homers in total this season, but two of them did come against the Dodgers. Ohtani took him deep when the Dodgers played the Twins in July, and Pages went yard off him on September 15. He faltered a bit down the stretch, allowing a run in three of his final five games and allowing six hits after only allowing 12 in the 18 games as a Philly before then. Orion Kerkering and David Robertson also figure to be in the pen, and Buehler or Nola could also be in the pen. Old friend Lou Trevino tossed nine strong innings for the Phillies down the stretch and could be another option, and they have another solid length option in Taijuan Walker.
The bullpen as a whole wasn’t strong for the Phils this season. Their 4.27 bullpen ERA was the same as the Dodgers, but unlike the Dodgers their 8.6 percent walk rate was top-10 in baseball. They posted a 3.81 ERA after acquiring Duran at the deadline, so there was some improvement down the stretch. Duran probably gives the Phillies the bullpen advantage as they have a true shutdown guy in the back end (pls Sasaki).
Phillies Lineup
The Phillies can hit the ball. Their .759 team OPS was the fourth-best in baseball and their 21.7 percent team strikeout rate just edges out the Dodgers’ 21.9 percent. Trea Turner won the batting title and his 36 stolen bases is his most since 2018, but he did miss most of September with a hamstring strain. He did come back and play six innings in the regular season finale, but it’ll be interesting to see how healthy he is coming in to this series. Kyle Schwarber led the NL in homers (56) and led baseball with 132 RBIs. He is prone to the strikeout (27.2 percent was the 13th-highest strikeout rate among qualified batters), but he also had a 14.9 percent walk rate (7th highest). Bryce Harper posted his worst OPS since 2016 (still .844, god damn he’s good) and J.T. Realmuto‘s .700 OPS was his worst since his rookie year.
Brandon Marsh turned in a solid season with a .785 OPS and a career-best 25.9 percent strikeout rate. He figures to be in the lineup most games in this series. Nick Castellanos and Max Kepler both struggled this season (.694 and .691 OPS’s, respectively) and should platoon in left. Their other big deadline acquisition was Harrison Bader, who annoyingly did not get traded to the Dodgers. Bader is one of the better defensive outfielders in baseball and had a career year at the plate. His .796 OPS was a career-high and he OPS’d .824 after the deadline for the Phillies. Bader has historically been better against lefties (.760 OPS vs .696 against righties for his career), but he had reverse splits this season (.845 against righties, .689 vs lefties). He exclusively played in center for the Phillies but can play all three outfield positions and would probably be their best defender at each position.
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The Brewers took home the top seed in the NL, but this really feels like the matchup between the two best teams in the league. The Dodgers have the offensive firepower to compete against anyone and the rotation should be the best in the playoffs, but it’ll all come down to the bullpen. The bullpen (and sloppy defense) survived against the Reds, but that won’t cut it against a team like the Phillies (or Brewers/Cubs or whoever makes it out of the AL). This feels like it’ll be a classic of a series, and let’s hope it goes the Dodgers way.
