Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner ’26: Week 16

The goal with the FSPP is simple: we rank all of the upcoming week’s projected two-start pitchers, accounting for the risk and reward for inserting them into your lineups. The pitchers will be broken down into the following five categories:

Giddy up: Set ‘em and forget ‘em.12-teamers: These pitchers should almost always be in your lineup unless the fantasy baseball gods have blessed you with an utterly loaded staff.15-teamers: You’re probably going to start these guys in a deeper league, but anything shallower would be a roll of the dice.I Need the Wins: These pitchers should only be considered if you’re desperate for wins and other counting stats. Just understand the risk of blowing up your ratios.Nope: Don’t even think about it.

Now that you’re primed and ready to go, let’s get to it.

Disclaimer: These rankings cover July 6-12.

American League

Giddy Up:Payton Tolle (at CWS, at NYM)Tarik Skubal (vs ATH, vs PHI)Cam Schlittler (at TB, at WAS)

Tolle is coming off his worst start of the season, having been knocked around for six runs on seven hits and three walks over just three innings of work. The left-hander’s velocity was down significantly in the outing, which is something to keep an eye on moving forward, but for now I suspect he was just feeling fatigued on a scorching-hot day in Boston. Prior to the outing, Tolle had logged a 2.78 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 69/20 K/BB across 71 ⅓ innings of work.

12-teamers:Jose Soriano (at TEX, at MIN)MacKenzie Gore (vs LAA, vs HOU)Kevin Gausman (at SF, at SD)Taj Bradley (vs CLE, vs LAA)

Bradley went through a bit of a rough patch initially upon his return from a pectoral injury, collecting a 6.57 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 28/13 K/BB across 24 ⅔ innings covering five starts. That was after he had dazzled with a 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 52/17 K/BB over 47 frames across his first eight outings of the season. The good news is Bradley looks to have gotten back on track in his last three outings, highlighted by a season-high 11 strikeouts over five innings in Houston his last time out.

15-teamers:Shane Baz (vs CHC, vs KC)Joey Cantillo (at MIN, at MIA)Seth Lugo (vs PHI, at BAL)Will Warren (at TB, at WAS)Shane McClanahan (vs NYY, vs SEA)Ian Seymour (vs NYY, vs SEA)

I wanted to put McClanahan in the same tier as his former rotation mate Bradley, but 15-teamers feels more appropriate with where he’s at. McClanahan logged six shutout innings in his last start in Kansas City, but he struck out just four batters and has yet to punch out more than seven in an outing this season. The Rays have been really careful with his workload, too, as he’s averaging less than 80 pitches per start and has not yet eclipsed the 90-pitch mark. He does have favorable matchups in the final week of the first half, as the Yankees aren’t hitting anyone right now and the Mariners haven’t hit lefties all season.

I Need the Wins:Jeffrey Springs (at DET, at CWS)Noah Schultz (vs BOS, vs ATH)Noah Cameron (vs PHI, at BAL)

I’d definitely want to hang on to Schultz in redrafts if I can, but he’s closer to the tier lower than this than anything above it right now. The young left-hander returned from the IL this week and looked about the same as he did before the knee issue, yielding three runs on two hits and four walks with seven strikeouts over 4 ⅓ frames. Between the control issues and the White Sox keeping a close eye on his workload, Schultz is averaging less than five innings in his nine starts, and he hasn’t been missing enough bats to help make up for it.

Nope:Mike Burrows (at WAS, at TEX)

Burrows was briefly demoted to the Astros’ bullpen for one appearance after authoring a disappointing 5.86 ERA in his first 14 starts. He’s worked on raising his arm slot following a drop this season, and in his first outing back in the rotation he turned in six innings of one-run ball while allowing only two hits and one walk. Unfortunately, Burrows backslid in giving up four runs over five frames in his last start. I’m still holding some long-term hope for Burrows, but he’s got major home run issues and just hasn’t been missing many bats this season.

National League

Giddy Up:Max Meyer (vs SEA, vs CLE)Cristopher Sanchez (at KC, at DET)Zack Wheeler (at KC, at DET)Paul Skenes (vs ATL, vs MIL)

Obviously, Skenes has not provided fantasy managers what they expected from the reigning Cy Young winner. After posting a sub-2.00 ERA in each of his first two seasons in the big leagues, Skenes sits on a 3.62 ERA in his 18 starts in 2026. He allowed a career-high eight runs (seven earned) over four innings in his last outing in Philadelphia. The Pirates’ defense behind their ace has been terrible, but Skenes isn’t blameless. His velocity is down and his Stuff+, particularly when it comes to both fastballs, is way down. With all that said, I’m not sure there’s anything actionable here in fantasy. You’re starting Skenes regardless, and odds are he will right the ship and be just fine.

12-teamers:Dustin May (vs MIL, vs ATL)

May authored a one-hit shutout against the Padres in mid-June, which was the apex of a 12-start stretch that saw him collect a 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 68/18 K/BB over 74 ⅓ innings. However, he also threw 100-plus pitches for the second start in a row in that outing, and that workload seemed to clearly affect him in his next start when he was bludgeoned for six runs in two innings in a loss to the Royals. He then had his next outing skipped due to back tightness. We can’t assume good health given May’s track record, but the Cardinals do not seem concerned that this could be a nagging issue.

15-teamers:Shane Drohan (at STL, at PIT)Landen Roupp (vs TOR, vs COL)Cade Cavalli (vs HOU, vs NYY)Freddy Peralta (at ATL, vs BOS)Matthew Boyd (at BAL, at CIN)

We got a glimpse of what Cavalli could be his last time out, as he struck out a career-high 13 batters while allowing only one hit and one unearned run over seven innings in Boston. He mostly kept the Phillies in check in his start prior to that, as well. However, Cavalli’s first four starts in June weren’t great, as he posted a 5.60 ERA and didn’t go beyond five innings in any outing. I’m cautiously optimistic moving forward, particularly since the Nationals’ run support has been much better than anyone could have anticipated.

I Need the Wins:Andrew Abbott (vs PHI, vs CHC)Walker Buehler (vs ARI, vs TOR)Michael McGreevy (vs MIL, vs ATL)Trevor McDonald (vs TOR, vs COL)Bryce Elder (at PIT, at STL)

The regression with Elder has arrived. After authoring a 2.66 ERA in his first 14 starts of the season, Elder has been bullied for 19 runs covering 14 innings across his last three outings. His velocity was also down notably his last time out. As a result, the Braves skipped his last turn in the rotation, hoping it will serve as a much-needed refresh for the right-hander. The matchups for Elder in the upcoming week aren’t bad, but inserting him into your fantasy lineup would certainly be a roll of the dice.

Nope:Brandon Pfaadt (at SD, at LAD)Zac Gallen (at SD, at LAD)Reynaldo Lopez (vs NYM, at STL)Kyle Freeland (at LAD, at SF)Michael Lorenzeen (at LAD, at SF)Randy Vasquez (vs ARI, vs TOR)

Lopez is getting another opportunity in the Braves’ rotation, and he was terrific his last time out in striking out six over five innings of one-run ball against the Cardinals. He averaged better than 95 mph and topped 97 mph with his four-seamer in the outing, which made it doubly encouraging. In his last six appearances (two starts), Lopez has permitted only two earned runs over 15 ⅓ innings. However, while I’m not against rostering Lopez again, he’s not stretched back out yet, having not reached 70 pitches since mid-April.