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Four numbers that actually matter in Spring Training: Week Three

March 16, 2026
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Last week, we took a look at the early returns from the outfield group. This week, we’ll turn our attention to the catchers. The front office addressed this area at last season’s trade deadline by acquiring Nick Fortes and Hunter Feduccia. This duo is likely to handle the majority of the reps at catcher this season, and I expect Dom Keegan will have an opportunity to contribute a bit later this season.

Fortes is a plus defender across the board while Feduccia grades as roughly average in blocking and throwing but above average as a receiver. There aren’t many concerns about their defensive skill sets, but both are looking to turn in better offensive seasons than what they showed so far in their major league careers. Early Spring Training data suggests the Rays may get more offensive production from the catching position in 2026 – particularly through improved contact and stronger raw power indicators.

… is the combined whiff rate for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. That’s a significant improvement from the 26.0% whiff rate Rays catchers posted in 2025.

The front office has quietly been moving towards a more contact-oriented offense, and this change has impacted the catching group as well. More balls in play should lead to a more efficient offensive output – even if some of those balls in play simply move runners along. I don’t think a sub 15% whiff rate is realistic as the wear-and-tear of the position could affect them later in the year, but around 20% seems possible and likely.

… is the 90th percentile exit velocity (EV90: industry standard to measure raw power) for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. Rays catchers produced a below-average EV90 of 102.8mph last season, so it’s clear that there’s more power in this duo than the collective combinations of catchers the Rays rostered in 2025.

Fortes and Feduccia were briefly part of that group last season, but they accounted for relatively few of the catching group’s batted-ball events. The raw power upgrade heading into 2026 is real and could make a difference for the offense.

… is the average hard-hit launch angle for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring.

They’ll need to find a way to elevate the ball more to tap into their power as we countdown to the beginning of the regular season. While the group last year didn’t hit the ball very hard, they did a nice job of elevating the ball when they did – evident in their average hard-hit launch angle of 12°. Fortes and Feduccia may currently be prioritizing contact over damage, which can sometimes lead to flatter contact profiles.

One way to unlock more power would be to take slightly more aggressive swings, even if that comes with a bit more swing-and-miss.

… is the zone-minus-out-of-zone swing rate for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. While this is better-than-average, Rays catchers ran an even better 43.6% in 2025. However, it was hard for the group last season to leverage their swing decisions into much production because the whiff was prevalent and the power was quite low.

Maintaining strong swing decisions will be key for Fortes and Feduccia, as that approach gives them the best chance to elevate the ball and tap into their raw power. If these trends hold, the Rays should get significantly more offensive production from the catching position than the 70 wRC+ they received in 2025.



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