Four numbers that actually matter in Spring Training: Week Two

If these early trends hold, the Rays’ outfield could shift from a weakness in 2025 to a legitimate strength in 2026.

is the line drive plus fly ball rate for Rays outfielders so far this spring. This is up significantly from the 42.1% mark during the 2025 regular season, when they were dead last in the league by a wide margin. They’re sitting closer to the middle of the pack this spring, and even a jump from worst to average should translate to significantly better run production, especially when coupled with the next data point.

is the 90th percentile exit velocity from Rays outfielders so far this spring. This is an increase from 102.7mph during the 2025 regular season. While it’s still slightly below average, the front office took clear steps to address the lack of impact from the Rays outfield last season – particularly adding Jacob Melton and Ryan Vilade. After being near the bottom of the league in 2025, the group now looks closer to 45-grade raw power rather than the 30-grade impact they showed last season.

is how much Rays outfielders have collectively decreased their chase rate compared to the 2025 offense. Disciplined hitters like Jake Fraley and Cedric Mullins were brought in to raise the floor of the group, while guys like Ryan Vilade and Richie Palacios are looking to settle into their offensive identities and be more selective. Going from a league-worst 33.9% to a better-than-average 26.0% is a major shift, and this improvement outpaces the roughly 3% reduction in overall swing rate so we know they’re being selective rather than just passive.

is the number of players we expect to begin the season on the Injured List. Relievers Steven Wilson and Manuel Rodriguez will begin the season on the 15-day and 60-day ILs respectively. Edwin Uceta may also begin the year on the IL, but he is progressing nicely after a slow start this spring due to shoulder inflammation.

Cedric Mullins and Richie Palacios are dealing with lower back tightness that may keep them out of game action for a little bit. Mullins worked out on Friday in Port Charlotte and felt better, so there doesn’t appear to be much concern about him being ready for Opening Day. Palacios is still a bit of a question mark given his injury history, but there’s plenty of time for him to rest – and he may be slated for AAA anyways. Chandler Simpson is dealing with some hamstring soreness, but the team is being overly cautious and he doesn’t appear to be in danger of beginning on the IL at the moment.