The Tigers are somewhat intimidating, I’ll admit.
They come into this series sixth in wRC+, but second (above the Braves) in xwOBA. Their rotation is fourth in fWAR, and the Braves will not see their one starter that’s been bad so far (Jack Flaherty). Those two things suggest something considerably weighty for the Braves to gnaw on in their upcoming series.
And yet, the Tigers are just 15-14. They are underplaying their run differential and BaseRuns by a game, and are in the back half of the top ten in both BaseRuns offense and run prevention. So, tough, but less scary in terms of results they’ve recorded.
One thing stands out: their bullpen has not been up to par. There are six teams with below-replacement level performances from their relief corps so far, and the Tigers are one of them. They’re bottom five in bullpen innings completed, so it hasn’t been as big of a deal as it could be, but still: the bullpen has a bottom ten strikeout rate and top ten (as in, highest) walk rate. They’re bottom five in WPA. Brant Hurter is the only reliever that has both succeeded in terms of WPA and actual pitching; of the five relievers they’ve used in the highest-leverage situations, only Hurter and old friend Kenley Jansen have more shutdowns than meltdowns, and Kenley is just at three to two there. (Kyle Finnegan is at four shutdowns and zero meltdowns, but none of the other lower-leverage relievers have any shutdowns at all.)
The Braves, meanwhile, have enjoyed beating up on relievers, with the league’s second-highest wOBA and fourth-highest xwOBA against bullpens. (Those ranks are fourth in both against starters, with the Braves about .010 better in both cases against relievers.)
The Tigers’ defense has also not been good in the early going, which isn’t something to necessarily affect relievers moreso than starters, but is also something to take into account when the question is about runs and not pitching.
So, three games, all started on the Tigers’ end by a pretty good (or great) arm. The Braves’ bats are what they are. How many runs do you think we’re talking about? I’ll go with six, which of course can be easily blown up by a single bullpen-bashing blowout, but there you go.
