Is Junior Caminero getting pitched around because neither Jonathan Aranda nor Yandy Diaz are hitting behind him in the lineup to “protect” him? How much influence does Caminero have on the number of pitches the batter ahead of him sees in the zone?
For this analysis, lineup protection refers specifically to whether a power hitter (Hitter B) meaningfully changes the percentage of pitches in the strike zone seen by the hitter directly ahead of them (Hitter A). Here are the parameters I set:
Across the sample, hitters batting directly ahead of elite power hitters saw roughly 1% more pitches in the strike zone than they did in other lineup configurations. So for every 1,000 pitches a hitter sees, they’ll get about 10 more in zone when hitting ahead of a power threat. Most full-time players will see 2,400 to 2,600 pitches in a given season, so that would be 24-26 more pitches in the zone across an entire season, or 0.15-0.16 more pitches in the zone per game. That’s hardly significant. A difference of 0.16 pitches per game is so small that it would take nearly a weeks of games for the average hitter to accumulate even one additional pitch in the strike zone.
We can also see that Hitter B’s ISO has a low influence on Hitter A’s zone rate:
An r^2 of 0.10 means Hitter B’s power explains only 10% of the variation in Hitter A’s zone rate – a weak relationship in baseball data. In practical terms, 90% of the variation is being driven by other factors. This is consistent with modern sabermetric findings: lineup protection may exist, but the effect is quite small.
A hitter’s own ISO actually has a greater impact on the rate at which they see pitches in the zone:
Hitter A’s own power explains roughly twice as much of the variation in zone rate as the power of the hitter behind them.
In other words, pitchers appear to react more strongly to the hitter they’re facing than to the hitter waiting on deck. Even then, the relationship remains fairly modest.
If these findings apply to Caminero, they suggest that any reduction in strikes he sees is driven far more by his own offensive reputation than by the absence of a traditional “protector” behind him in the lineup.
Managers should prioritize maximizing plate appearances for their best hitters rather than rearranging lineups in search of protection effects. The effect appears to exist, but it’s far too small to outweigh the value of simply giving a team’s best hitters more opportunities to bat. For the Rays, that means if Caminero is seeing fewer strikes than expected, the explanation probably lies in how pitchers view Caminero himself rather than who is batting behind him. His own profile appears to matter far more than any potential protection effect.
