I have to assume that if you clicked on this, you’re probably already skeptical, coming here to say how horrific Michael Conforto has been and that he should be shot into the Sun or something. And yeah, it’s been ugly for him in 2025: he currently has a .164/.299/.267/.566 line for a 70 wRC+ with a career-worst 27.6 K%, and due to not hitting the ball hard he has a HR/FB% that is less than a third of his career rate. Struggling for a month is one thing, but it’s objectively the worst start at the plate he’s had in his career through both April and May so far. At 32, it’s the type of age where it’s a legitimate worry that the bounceback might not come.
Recently though, much to the exasperation of fans, there’s been talk on broadcast and in the press that he’s getting close and starting to find it. This despite, as you probably know by watching, his results not actually improving so far in May.
Probably making things even worse for him is the fact that despite low expectations, he’s even worse in key situations, posting an 85 wRC+ in low leverage, 59 in medium, and a terrifying 23 in high.
Yeah, not pretty.
So what is this? Just another article to shit on Conforto? No, but the point is I do feel much of what the fans currently do, and their feelings are valid because the results are arguably getting worse instead of better. I get it.
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That said, all the broadcast and press quotes aren’t just trying to gaslight you or do apologia (well, some might be), as there are legit signs of life to be found.
That unlucky 2024 is basically why the Dodgers signed him and thought he had potential to have a Teoscar Hernandez type of platform year, and everything about his batted ball data is trending towards those results of late. He’s lifting the ball more, he’s hitting the ball harder, and he’s putting forth the ideal swing more often (46.7% ideal attack angle in April, 53.6% in May), all of which is leading to an expected line* in May that’d put him around what Mookie Betts and Andy Pages are doing on the year right now.
*Note: He has no history of underperforming his xwOBA, it’s almost exactly similar for his career.
If he was indeed producing like them in May, certainly he would’ve earned a lot more patience, but the more what-ifs there are to navigate, the more the concern about the results feel valid. What if the improved batted ball metrics don’t continue? What if the mental aspect of the slump has a snowball effect on his performance? Or simply what if he does rebound a bit, but not towards the upper band of what’s possible, which is damn near 80-90 points of wOBA now? Because the reality is he doesn’t just need to rebound a bit, he needs to do so in a big way, as Conforto as an average hitter isn’t likely to be enough to help much.
To go back to the player comparison, Betts and Pages have positional, defensive, and baserunning value (and higher upsides) that add a ton of value. Conforto has the opposite problem, where the other aspects detract due to 28th percentile Sprint Speed (~-2 baserunning runs) and his ranking as the 29th of 38 leftfielders with 100 innings (~-2 OAA). Point being, make no mistake about it, Conforto has an uphill climb to justify his starting role in the months to come.
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Those looking for some kind of declarative take on how the rest of Michael Conforto’s 2025 will go won’t find what they’re looking for here, but the point is the frustration with his results has led too many to believe he’s been stagnant. It’s a fact that he’s one of the worst qualified hitters in baseball, but it’s also a fact that he’s indeed showing signs of life in May (even if they come with the aforementioned question marks).
Either way, even aside from his contract, the batted ball improvement is likely why he’s going to get time, perhaps even as much as until the trade deadline. And the longer I looked at the internal options, the more I realized there’s not a ton more the team can actually do anyway, as on paper this is probably the best offensive roster they can muster without external options. Sure, perhaps either Dalton Rushing or Hyeseong Kim breakout and force their bats into the lineup to take playing time away from Conforto, but him eventually figuring it out would easily be the best thing for the Dodgers’ roster, especially with the team likely to have more pressing issues to address at the deadline (like the entire pitching staff).
Note: Another non-baseball reason they aren’t gonna abandon him as fans want is that players likely won’t sign prove-it deals with teams if they think they’re gonna get a month and change before they get jettisoned in their platform years. All those stories fans take pride in on social media where they say players talk and they want to play for the Dodgers? Not throwing up your hands and saying “well this guy sucks” after 150 PA is probably part of it.
