MLB Mailbag: Hader, Aroldis, Abrams, Mariners, Rays

This week’s mailbag looks at the trade value of Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman plus other relief targets, Cal Raleigh’s struggles and possible Mariners trade options, the Rays’ shortstop situation, and much more.

Adam asks:

The Astros are really bad and their season was already in the trash can prior to Correa’s injury. He’s out for the year and they would be wise to sell everyone who isn’t Alvarez. Josh Hader (who is also currently hurt) would have around $46 million and 2.5 years left on his deal if dealt around the deadline. He also has a no trade clause and again, is injured as of right now. Edwin Diaz is the same age as Hader and just signed for 3/67 this offseason and they are very comparable. In theory, if Hader was a free agent this past winter, he likely could have gotten more money than what he had signed for so he has positive value, in theory. If he is open to waving his NTC, what would he fetch at the deadline?

Jeff asks:

I know early season trades are rare, but do you think the Red Sox would be willing to trade Chapman sooner than later? He’s having a great start to the season and not a whole lot of games to save in Boston. What do you think the Red Sox would want back?

Mike asks:

Who will be the best closers traded at the deadline?

I decided to lump all my reliever trade questions together.

Hader, 32, made the All-Star team last year but his season ended in mid-August due to a left shoulder capsule strain.  As of late November he was expecting a normal spring training, but then biceps inflammation popped up in February.  He’s on the 60-day IL and is eligible to return to the Astros on May 24th.  The lefty has made three scoreless relief appearances so far.  We have Statcast data for two of them, and he threw his sinker in the 94-95 mile per hour range.  That’s not far below the 95.5 he averaged in his excellent ’25 season.

At the deadline, Hader will be owed a bit less than $45MM through 2028.  And yes, he has a full no-trade clause.  So he’ll have to be compensated to waive it unless he really just wants out of Houston.  Hader is a Maryland native, so it’s possible he’d enjoy an East Coast team.

Hader should have more than two months to prove his health pitching for the Astros prior to the August 3rd trade deadline.  As a $19MM a year reliever coming off an injury, Hader’s trade value may be limited.  Throw in his full NTC, and his market will shrink further.  He still has elite reliever potential and could be a huge asset in the postseason, but certain contenders may be unable to get involved due to his salary and veto power.

For example, Hader would be a great fit on the Royals or Reds, but those teams would likely balk at his contract even if he’d approve a trade.  A big market team would be a cleaner fit.  Which big market teams have at least a 40% shot at the playoffs right now?  That list includes the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers.  The Yankees and Cubs stand out, with the former possibly holding the East Coast edge.