The Rays are in such a weird spot right now. It’s easy to claim that they are just a bad team. It’s easy to just lament this is the same song and dance from 2024. But the reality is far stranger.
Tonight, much like the rest of the season, the Rays hit extra base hits, they had RISP, they got a quality start from the starter, and they had ample opportunities to flip the script.
That’s the way the 2025 Rays have played! this is not the 2024 Rays. This is a team with top ten in BA with RISP. In fact they are top ten in basically every offensive category (5th in wRC+, 5th in BA, 9th in OPS) except runs scored.
In fact, in Runs scored, they have scored 94 total runs before tonight. The 17-7 New York Mets have scored 96 runs.
The Rays have an expected win percentage of 12-10 coming into today, and after tonight an actual record of 9-14.
So what the hell is going on? Well tonight gives a pitch perfect view of the issues.
Losing the HR battle
Zack Littell pitched a rather remarkably good game against the 2nd best offense in baseball. 6 IP 3 ER just the 1 BB. However, the difference in the game was two HRs. All 3 of the runs he gave up came with 2 outs and on the long ball.
Rays on the other hand had no HRs. It’s very hard to string together hits to drive in multiple runs, and even harder to do it to overcome a 2 HR deficit in the category.
The lack of power is still a big issue for the Rays. 21st in total team HR at just 21 total. The Rays have the bats to produce more. They just gotta get those bats producing. Which leads me to the next point…
Where’s the Beef?!
How’s that for a timely cultural reference?
Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero combined to go 0-8 with 3 double plays grounded into. It just seemed like every time Tampa Bay got a spark of a rally, Yandy or Junior came up and snuffed it out just as quickly.
Much of last year the issues with the Rays offense was failing to score with runners in scoring position. This year the Rays have one of the best batting averages with RISP. Beyond the issue with the aforementioned lack of power, the Rays are generating a lot of RISP chances. That’s what good teams do!
The issue becomes how do you generate the runs needed when you aren’t hitting bombs? You need to chain together hits to extend the rally. That’s a problem when your 8-9 spots have been a blackhole most of the year (tonight the role of 8 and 9 was played by Ben Rortvedt and Taylor Walls, 0-6 combined).
The problem is much, MUCH worse when it’s the middle of the order that’s struggling. Brandon Lowe has gotten off to a slow start, tonight 1-4. Yandy has still yet to break 100 wRC+ on the season, had one of the GIDP and whopping 0-4 (although hit the ball hard right into the worst spots). Junior as mentioned 0-4.
The Rays were 1 for 6 with RISP. But the 6 number is key. Chandler Simpson continued to impress early getting two base hits and adding his 2nd steal of the season. Jonathan Aranda got on base twice, one BB and another by HBP. The HBP provided a terrifying several minutes of carefully watch Aranda rub his knee praying he would be okay. Thankfully Aranda would stay in the game, and thanks to Junior behind him made it so he didn’t have to run much at all hitting into double plays both times he reached.
Kameron Misner and Jake Mangum continued to be huge bright spots as well.
At some point Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero will be able to hit and hit together. That day needs to come soon.
(No) Good Luck, Babe
The Rays once again won the xBA battle .310 to .295. The Rays were once again not overmatched by their opponent. Once again though the Rays just can’ty catch or make their own breaks.
The Rays Pythagorean expected W-L coming in was 12-10. They have faced a brutal opening schedule with Texas (1st in the West), Angels (2nd in the west), Atlanta (missing Acuna and slow start but clearly good), Boston (2nd in East), and New York (1st in East and AL). And now Arizona who is going toe to toe with San Diego Padres and the LA Dodgers in the best division in baseball (as well as the also lava hot San Francisco Giants).
It’s pretty easy to be defeated and discouraged. Rays are now 5 games under .500. The games in April count the same as the games in September, so the losses today hurt just as much and may be getting hard to overcome. The Rays are now one loss away from going 1-5 in series after the opening homestand, And hell, with San Diego next I’d be pretty ready right about now to chalk that one up to another series loss too.
But at a certain point the coin flips will change. At some point All-Star caliber players like Yandy Diaz will not hit 40 points below average. The Rays are not the feeble and completely overmatch 2024 club. Their lineup has way more punch to it, with Chandler at the top, Aranda bringing the lumber, and Junior Caminero at 21 showing flashes of a true generational bat. They have a rotation that has top tier stuff and are not relying on piecing together just enough innings from Todd the Painter.
The talent level and the flashes are clearly there, and there is so many small moments in this game and so amny games this season where you just need one more out or one ball in the gap to flip the script from an L to a W.
And maybe that’s exactly what makes this all the more painful so far.
