Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins

The Milwaukee Brewers, fresh off a 2-4 road trip that mercifully ended with a solid win Wednesday afternoon in Cleveland, are set to take on the Minnesota Twins in a battle of interleague rivals. The Crew lost two of three to both the Rays and Guardians, salvaging the series finale in each series. They’re now 21-23 this year, firmly in third place in the NL Central.

The Twins are headed in a completely different direction, winning their 11th consecutive game Thursday afternoon as they’re now 24-20 this season, though they still sit in fourth place in a very deep AL Central (outside of the White Sox, obviously).

After seemingly nearing what could be considered “good” health as a full roster, the Brewers lost another one to injury this week, as Jose Quintana is dealing with a left shoulder impingement and will therefore miss at least a couple of weeks with an IL stint. Aaron Civale, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, Nestor Cortes, Connor Thomas, and Robert Gasser join him among pitchers on the IL, with Brandon Woodruff also dealing with a setback as he nears his first MLB game since 2023. Outfielders Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins are also out, with expected returns either in late May or early June.

The Twins have several position players with TBD injury statuses, including both Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, who collided on a fly ball and are now both in concussion protocol. It’s unclear if either will be available this weekend in Milwaukee. First baseman Ty France is day-to-day with a left foot contusion, though he did bat off the bench Thursday. Outfielder Harrison Bader is also day-to-day with a left groin injury, and Matt Wallner is on the IL with a hamstring strain. On the pitching side, Michael Tonkin is on the IL with an arm injury, and Erasmo Ramirez is out with a shoulder strain.

Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich remain tied for the team lead with seven homers this year, with Rhys Hoskins right on their tail with five homers. Hoskins, who had a strong 4-for-4 game in Wednesday’s series finale, is now hitting .292/.396/.462 this year and is the clear leader of Milwaukee’s offense at this point. Chourio is hitting .258/.276/.457, William Contreras is hitting .238/.347/.340, and Sal Frelick and Brice Turang are both now batting under .300 after great starts to the year. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .233/.310/.355 (.665 OPS ranks 25th) with 37 homers (24th), 193 runs (15th), and 56 steals (first).

Buxton leads the Twins in just about every major statistical category, with 10 homers, 27 RBIs, 33 runs, five doubles, three triples, and eight steals. He’s hitting .261/.312/.522 this year. Trevor Larnach is hitting .244/.318/.406, while Bader and Ty France are both enjoying solid years hitting .300/.384/.464 and .252/.316/.361, respectively. As a team, the Twins are hitting .239/.309/.382 (.691 OPS ranks 18th) with 42 homers (20th), 182 runs (17th), and 25 steals (tied for 23rd).

Pat Murphy’s leading arms stand as Abner Uribe (1.37 ERA) and Nick Mears (0.54 ERA), with Trevor Megill (2.92 ERA) as the closer. Grant Anderson and Jared Koenig will also get high-leverage innings, while Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero have picked up the lower-leverage innings. Tyler Alexander functions as the long-relief option. As a staff, the Brewers have a 4.15 ERA (22nd), including a 3.76 starter ERA (11th) and a 4.65 reliever ERA (24th). They’ve also struck out 346 batters (22nd) over 383 2⁄3 innings.

Closer Jhoan Duran (0.84 ERA) anchors the bullpen and is a perfect 8-for-8 in save opportunities. Louis Varland, brother of former Brewer Gus Varland, has a 2.95 ERA and leads the team with 24 appearances. Griffin Jax has struggled with a 5.49 ERA, while Danny Coulombe has been just about perfect with no earned runs across 16 2⁄3 innings. Cole Sands, former Brewer Justin Topa, Jorge Alcala, Brock Stewart, and Kody Funderburk round out the bullpen. As a staff, the Twins have a 3.30 ERA (fifth), including a 3.48 starter ERA (sixth) and a 3.04 reliever ERA (fifth). They’ve also struck out 388 batters (seventh) over 384 1⁄3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, May 16 @ 7:10 p.m.: Chad Patrick (3.19 ERA, 3.69 FIP) vs. Joe Ryan (2.74 ERA, 3.39 FIP)

Patrick has taken the role of 2024 Tobias Myers, making eight starts (nine appearances) this year with a solid 3.19 ERA and 3.69 FIP. In his last start against the Rays, he earned a no-decision as he went just 4 1⁄3 innings, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts, though the Brewers ended up winning that one 4-2. This is his first career start against the Twins.

Ryan, in his fifth season, is enjoying his best season thus far through eight starts. He has a 2.74 ERA and 54 strikeouts through 46 innings, including allowing one run or less in five of his last six starts. His last start was a winning effort against the Giants, as he allowed one run on two hits and no walks with seven strikeouts across six frames. Ryan has made two starts against Milwaukee in his career, allowing five runs across 11 1⁄3 innings (3.97 ERA) with nine strikeouts. He went six innings and allowed four runs last July against the Brewers.

Saturday, May 17 @ 6:15 p.m.: Tobias Myers (3.86 ERA, 4.57 FIP) vs. Pablo López (2.77 ERA, 2.51 FIP)

Myers, who was demoted and quickly recalled from Triple-A Nashville, is taking Quintana’s original rotation spot in this one. Through five appearances (four starts) this season, he’s allowed seven runs and struck out 11 over 16 1⁄3 innings. His last start came Saturday against Tampa Bay, as he allowed two runs on three hits and three walks with three strikeouts over four frames. This is his first career start against the Twins.

López’s stats are close to Ryan’s through seven starts, as he’s allowed 15 runs (12 earned) with 43 strikeouts across 39 innings. His 2.51 FIP is even better than his 2.77 ERA, which, oddly enough, is actually normal for him — he’s actually outpaced his FIP just once since his first full season in 2019, in 2021 (3.07 ERA, 3.29 FIP). After a series of strong starts, López’s last start was one of his worst of the year, allowing four runs on five hits and two walks with six strikeouts across six innings. The former Marlin has made seven career starts against Milwaukee, with a 3.07 ERA and 49 strikeouts across 44 innings. He went seven innings and allowed one run with seven strikeouts in a no-decision against Milwaukee last July.

Sunday, May 18 @ 1:10 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.66 ERA, 3.46 FIP) vs. TBD

Peralta is right on track for another 200-strikeout season, as he’s made nine starts with a 2.66 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 52 strikeouts across 50 2⁄3 innings this year. Despite those strong numbers, his last start against the Guardians wasn’t a great one. He allowed four runs on four hits and three walks with four strikeouts across 5 1⁄3 innings in a 5-0 loss. He’s made six appearances (two starts) against Minnesota in his career, with a 2.84 ERA and 31 strikeouts across 19 innings. He went six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts opposite López last July.

The Twins haven’t yet announced their starter for the series finale, as the team played a doubleheader Wednesday afternoon, meaning if they use either of those starters (Bailey Ober or Simeon Woods Richardson), they would be on just four days’ rest. Just for fun, we’ll assume Ober takes this spot, as it would technically be his turn in the rotation. Ober, who is 4-1 this year, has a solid 3.72 ERA and 3.93 FIP with 40 strikeouts across 48 1⁄3 innings this season. In Wednesday’s win over the Orioles, he went just 4 2⁄3 innings, allowing three runs on three walks and two hits with three strikeouts. He’s made two starts against Milwaukee (both in 2023) with a 3.27 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 11 innings.

How to Watch

Friday, May 16: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Saturday, May 17: FOX (National) and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Sunday, May 18: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, Telemundo Wisconsin, and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Prediction

The Brewers are catching the Twins at the wrong time. However, I don’t think they’ll be able to extend the win streak all the way to 14 by the end of Sunday. I think Milwaukee will salvage one game this weekend as their season of mediocrity continues.