As fans, we thrive on finding meaning in our teams’ stats. Do the numbers coming out of spring training — which is basically one very long practice — actually have significance, however?
I would argue that most spring numbers tell us little, except a few that can tell us a lot more. We may not be able to project the likely success of an individual player from his spring performance, but we can learn something about the kind of team the front office is trying to assemble.
Here’s what I see: this front office has been working since last season’s trade deadline to address pitch interactions, outfield production, and swing decisions. If even two of these gains carry into the regular season, the Rays’ floor rises.
is the chase rate of opposing batters against Rays offspeed pitches.
The Rays have made it a point to optimize vertical separation between the fastballs and offspeed pitches for some of their pitchers. This makes the offspeed pitches more effective and should lead to more chases on changeups and splitters. The 34.5% chase rate against Rays offspeed pitches so far this spring compared to 32.9% during the 2025 regular season suggests they are moving to maximize this result. Not every pitcher has adopted a new shape, but the ones who have are driving the improvement. This will be something to monitor as the Opening Day roster is set. Pitchers on the 40-man roster have only accounted for 52.8% of the total plate appearances so far this spring. That chase rate should climb as more current Major League pitchers get their work in.
is the line drive plus fly ball rate for Rays outfielders so far this spring.
This is significantly better than it was last season when it was just 42.7% – the worst in the league by quite a bit. They’re currently sitting in the middle of the league and batted ball data isn’t stable yet, but the improvement matches the roster moves made by the front office this winter. We can expect a greater output in terms of in-game power if these results hold as we begin the regular season. The 90th percentile exit velocity (industry standard way to measure raw power) is still near the bottom of the league, but that should improve as well when the Major League regulars get more consistent playing time near the end of Spring Training. The 90th percentile exit velocity would also increase if Melton and Vilade were to win roster spots.
is the roster’s zone-minus-out-of-zone swing rate of Rays hitters.
The front office has made it a priority to increase the quality of plate appearances from the position player group. They targeted above-average swing decision profiles (particularly in the outfield) and early returns suggest it’s working, with the rate up from a roughly average 37.4% in 2025 to an above average 40.8% so far this spring. As the roster narrows to its intended core, that discipline profile becomes more representative of who their offensive identity.
is the number of players likely to start the season on the Injured List.
The most important part of spring training? Don’t get injured. So far the only two players are expected to open the season on the major league IL are Steven Wilson and Manuel Rodriguez. Wilson’s IL stint may be brief; he hopes to be ready shortly after Opening Day and may just need his time on the IL to ramp-up. Rodriguez is coming off TJS and is expected to return late in the summer.
Edwin Uceta may need to begin the season on the IL due to some shoulder troubles, but it doesn’t appear to be too serious as he is already throwing. Aside from a couple relievers off to slow starts, the roster has been relatively healthy – and that’s the most important takeaway from camp.
