Yeah, I might’ve phrased this as a query and had the identical publish physique anyway, however why trouble once I can simply make a publish? After the Braves cut up their massive sequence on the highway in opposition to the Phillies, I’ve three massive image ideas, two of which have been prompted by their dramatic comeback win in Sport Three.
Why is everybody, together with Ronald Acuña Jr., obsessive about going the opposite means?
On this sequence, the Braves’ commonest ball in play was a grounder up the center, adopted by a ball within the air hit the opposite means. For the Phillies, it was fly balls to middle, adopted with a tie between pulled and opposite-field fly balls. The Braves managed a .180 wOBA and .167 on their 19 opposite-field fly balls within the sequence; they managed an .809 wOBA and .665 xwOBA on their 15 pulled fly balls.
This isn’t actually shocking as a result of sure, pulling fly balls within the air is nice. However, perhaps goal it a bit higher? Right here’s the pitch plot of fly balls the opposite means by lefty batters:
This appears to be like okay-ish at first look, there’s perhaps one pitch that was weirdly inside-outed, and it was Matt Olson in opposition to Cristopher Sanchez. There have been some elevated balls you’d hope guys would pull, however it’s what it’s. And you then get the right-handed batter plot:
That’s a good bit of principally middle-ish pitches hit the opposite means.
On the season, the Braves are fifteenth in pulled fly ball charge, however seventh within the charge of hitting fly balls the opposite means. However this obscures loads of inconsistency:
You get the concept. What’s the obsession with going the opposite means? By the best way, whereas being first in that final bullet, the Braves have a .302 wOBA and .297 xwOBA on these balls. That’s truly ranked fairly excessive — their opposite-field fly balls are higher than different groups’, however… these are horrible on-contact marks generally.
Acuña is an attention-grabbing case right here. The primary pitch of the sequence was a sinker a bit bit away however squarely within the zone, and he hit a tough double into the right-center hole. Okay, he executed a transparent plan there. The following time he received a pitch anyplace on the outer half was two PAs later, and that one was a tough groundout to second. He pulled the same pitch however from a unique pitcher (Alex McFarlane, his later sufferer) and turned it into an infield single.
In Sport Two, he began stuff by pulling an outer-edge fastball from Zack Wheeler for a tough single. Then he homered off a Wheeler knee-high splitter additionally in the direction of the outer half of the plate. The following outer-portion pitch he noticed was a non-strike in each dimensions from Aaron Nola, a knuckle curve he dropped into proper area for a double. However then, he received a dangling changeup down the center on 2-2 from Nola and will solely hit it weakly to proper for a sac fly. Then, it was his homer in opposition to McFarlane. Within the finale, Jesus Luzardo didn’t actually throw him stuff exterior he might poke; even his one fly to proper got here from principally an inside-out effort on a pitch inside. So, Acuña isn’t actually the man to choose on right here, he’s no less than wrapping his bat round pitches away from him typically.
Nonetheless, even he has a .320 wOBA / .227 xwOBA on balls within the air the opposite means for the reason that begin of August, in comparison with an absurd 1.053 wOBA / .877 xwOBA on pulled balls within the air in that span. I’ll maintain hoping for some realignment on this regard.
Acuña did one thing wonderful anyway
The pitch Acuña homered on was a four-seamer almost bisected by the outer fringe of the zone at 100.5 mph. Acuña received round it and pulled it into left area for an enormous homer, each by way of distance and impact on the sport (and the sequence). This season, the highest-velocity pitch on an periphery homered on by a right-handed batter was 98.6 mph (Pete Alonso). Acuña principally skipped two ticks relative to anybody else.
Actually, in your entire Statcast period, just one right-handed batter has homered on a pitch on the periphery that was more durable than what Acuña did on Sunday: Avisail Garcia, who took a 100.7 mph pitch from Ryne Stanek in 2017 and hit it the opposite means for a longball. So, there you go: Acuña turned across the hardest righty outer-edge pitch to a righty batter for a pulled homer that we all know of.
This sequence had the Braves doing what they do greatest
The Braves weren’t favored to win any of those video games. Two video games — and actually, the 2 video games they misplaced — had a number of the lowest pre-game odds the Braves have confronted all season.
The Braves posted an identical .260 wOBA and xwOBA on this sequence. The Phillies have been lower down by some poor fortune and good protection en path to a .284 wOBA and .327 xwOBA. Does that appear prefer it must be a sequence cut up? Okay, advantageous, that’s a bit unfair, as a result of wins aren’t awarded after your entire sequence finishes.
It amuses me that the Phillies compiled 0.7 extra fWAR than the Braves in these 4 video games, but each groups received two video games. However that’s par for the course. The Braves are actually 85-59, and have simply 73 WAR-wins primarily based on fWAR. Whereas there may be most likely some assumption that over time, a crew’s file would development nearer to its WAR-wins file simply as a result of including further pattern that aligns… the Braves are as soon as once more defying the percentages on this regard, pulling additional away. There isn’t actually sufficient time within the season for any of this to be “mounted” until they hit principally a huge September collapse, and I don’t anticipate it to be “mounted” as a result of the crew itself is okay. It’s simply… bizarre. And so they used that weirdness to separate with the Phillies.
I proceed to be amazed that the Braves have averted the underside dropping out regardless of whammying themselves into silly (stupid-bad, not stupid-good) offense after July, however it’s what it’s.
If this have been a query publish, I suppose I’d ask what takeaways you had from this sequence cut up. Be happy to drop these within the feedback, I suppose.
