Spencer Schwellenbach looks to give Braves spark they need against Mets

The Atlanta Braves are about to embark on a thirteen-game stretch that could potentially make or break their season. Today marks the first game of seven that the Braves will face the New York Mets over the next thirteen.

The rest of the six games will be against the Marlins and the Phillies. Needless to say, the Braves could make up a lot of ground or almost fall completely out of contention.

In today’s matchup both the Braves and the Mets will be bringing one of their best rotation arms in to treat us to what looks to be a fun pitching matchup.

David Peterson will be starting for the Mets, who is easily having the best year of his six year career in terms of ERA. He currently has an ERA of 2.48 over 79.2 innings. Last season he had a 2.90 ERA. No other season has seen an ERA better than 3.44 and that was in the shortened 2020 season.

The question is if he can maintain his excellent ERA. Last season he had an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.56 and this season has an xERA of 3.64. He has been fortunate with high strand rates, leaving 78.4 percent of runners on base last season and 79.2 percent this season. Hitters have also had slight poor luck in terms of a BABIP of .293 last season and .292 this season. However, Peterson has had an excellent groundball rate which has aided both of those categories in his favor.

This year he has an elite groundball rate of 57.6 percent. Only 6.0 percent of qualified pitchers have a higher groundball rate than Peterson. Peterson has a below average strikeout rate and expected batting average against, so the key will be for the Braves to keep the ball in the air.

Spencer Schwellenbach will be coming to the mound after coming off the best start of his career where he pitched a complete game allowing two runs while striking out nine and giving up zero walks.

Schwellenbach has been elite in terms of free passes this season. His 3.9 walk percentage is among the best 3.0 percent of MLB. He also has a solid groundball rate of 49.6 percent, which is among the best 20.0 percent of qualified hitters. Like Peterson, his xERA is higher than his actual ERA. His xERA of 3.52 is still solid as it is in the top 37.0 percent of qualified pitchers.

The Braves have seen Peterson a decent number of times. Austin Riley leads the team with twenty-three at-bats and has seen success with a .984 OPS. Matt Olson will be the player to keep an eye on. He has four HRs in sixteen at-bats against Peterson.

No player on the Mets has more than nine at-bats against Schwellenbach. Six of the nine players that have seen him have yet to get on base.

The battle of the Acuña brothers will begin this evening with a first pitch time of 7:15 EDT.