The 2025 Cincinnati Reds are better, but by how much?

The 2025 Cincinnati Reds are a better team, on paper, than they were at the end of 2024.

Essentially, they’ll have five players whose presence in the 2024 lineup was little or none: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays and (to begin the year, anyway) Jose Trevino. There’s potential for an offense with more pop, but each of those players has question marks for various reasons. Add Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson at their respective offensive peaks to that lineup, and it’s competitive with the better batting orders in the National League. But again, the question marks …

The bullpen right now is a grab bag of parts who will work collectively to form a reliable late-inning solution for new Manager Terry Francona. Alexis Diaz starts the year on the injured list, and his late 2024 ineffectiveness which stretched into spring training brought his status as a closer into genuine question.

This team’s strength is starting pitching, without a doubt. I have a hunch that Brady Singer’s level of effectiveness is going to surprise many. Add him to Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, and Andrew Abbott, and you have a rotation where you can believe the Reds have a good chance to win every night. Additionally, Rhett Lowder and possibly Wade Miley will be available if any of the above comes up lame. Plus, Chase Burns and Chase Petty appear to be names who will be ready by next year or before.

There is depth here. Enough so that I would be exploring trades with teams who have a similar stockpile of young top-tier outfielders. You add a legit above-average major league bat to this team’s lineup, and there would be reason to start getting really excited.

The keys to success for this Reds team are:

Staying healthy
Young players reaching their expected potential

This is the year when we’ll see what is likely the baseline for McLain, Encarnacion-Strand, Lodolo and Abbott. If Elly De La Cruz performs anywhere close to what he has in spring training, then anything is possible.

But this team’s big weakness is a lack of quality depth. If everyone currently on the roster stays healthy and plays up to full potential, then this team can and will contend in an overall mediocre division. Based on history, we should expect Francona to bring the absolute most out of this roster.

But if injuries continue as they did last year and have so far during this spring, then this team doesn’t have the depth to compensate for that.

My prediction is that we can’t expect everything that needs to go right to go right. With that in mind, look for this team to climb over .500 for the year. Look for a close race between the Cubs and Reds for the division, which right now I would call a coin flip. It’s hard to imagine Milwaukee continuing its streak of division titles, but they always seem to put everything together. They’ll be third, with Pittsburgh and St. Louis holding the other three teams up.

But if Hays and-or Lux become a legit hitter who can provide De La Cruz some protection …