Image credit: © Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
We’re a little more than two weeks out from the trade deadline, which seems like an opportune time to take stock of the lay of the land. OK, it looks like things are proceeding along apace here, as the Dodgers are in first place by quite a bit and boast the best record in the league. The Braves are good again? Sure, that’s fine. Milwaukee has a five-game lead on the Cubs? Pretty standard at this point. I’m sure the American league is going just as norma—Okay, sure the Rays do this sometimes and the Rangers were in the World Series a couple years ago, but WHAT DO YOU MEAN THE WHITE SOX ARE TIED FOR THE DIVISION LEAD?? There are only five teams with records over .500?? The Tigers are eight games under .500 and only 3.5 out of a playoff spot?? Even the National League is a clusterf*ck when it comes to the Wild Cards, with the Marlins occupying the third slot for now, and another five teams all within four games.
All but seven teams remain in the mix, if the mix is defined as “within four games” of a playoff spot. That makes for something of an awkward deadline, with limited sellers and some, perhaps…let’s call them hesitant buyers. Between teams that have arrived ahead of schedule (let’s call them the White Sox, Cardinals, Nationals, and Marlins) and others that have underwhelmed but committed, remaining very much in the mix of a muddled race (let’s call them the Astros, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Padres, and Diamondbacks), things are going to be quite messy.
Adding to the dysfunction is the clear sellers (Mets, Reds, Athletics, Giants, Royals, Rockies, Angels) just don’t have a ton to part with. The Mets have the most to offer, entering the season as contenders, but even there much of that contention was based off of longer-term centerpieces that are unlikely to be on the move. To make sense of all this, I’ve turned to PECOTA and used our rest-of-season projections, broken down by team and position, to create a matrix of where teams’ strengths and weaknesses lie, and in that sense where the opportunities to match up in trade might be:
