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Bracketology: Michigan, Arizona lurking as Duke looks shaky in race for No. 1 overall seed

March 13, 2026
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Michigan and Florida will begin their postseason journeys on Friday with pivotal quarterfinal games in their respective conference tournaments that could impact the No. 1 seed hierarchy with just two days remaining until Selection Sunday. Given the vulnerability that Duke displayed in a narrow victory over Florida State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday, the Blue Devils are at risk of being dislodged from the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology.

If they stumble against Clemson on Friday night in the ACC semifinals, Michigan would be well-positioned to reach the No. 1 overall seed. The Wolverines would have to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals to remain in the hunt for the top seed in the bracket.

Florida is also tipping off its postseason Friday with an SEC Tournament quarterfinal showdown against Kentucky. The Gators are currently the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology but could be at risk of losing that spot if they fail to win the SEC Tournament. But Florida, which owns the nation’s second-longest winning streak at 11 games, has looked almost invincible throughout much of conference play as it seeks to win back-to-back national titles.

Here is a look at the top of the bracket entering Friday’s conference tournament action.

Bracketology top seeds

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

UConn is still lurking

If Florida stumbles, UConn will be ready to reassert itself in the race for the final No. 1 seed. The Huskies crushed Xavier 93-68 in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday and get a favorable draw in Friday’s semifinals against Georgetown. From there, a date with either St. John’s or Seton Hall would await in Saturday’s title game. It will take two more wins and a Florida loss, but the Huskies are alive and kicking in the race for a No. 1 seed.

Could Arizona get to No. 1 overall?

Arizona still has a path to the No. 1 overall seed as it prepares to take on Iowa State in a loaded semifinal round at the Big 12 Tournament. If the Wildcats beat the Cyclones, they would play either Kansas or Houston in the title game on Saturday. Stacking two wins against ISU and then either the Jayhawks or Cougars would bolster Arizona’s argument for the No. 1 overall seed.

Though it is running third in the race for now, Arizona’s treacherous Big 12 Tournament path presents an opportunity for the Wildcats to close a small gap on Duke and Michigan in the metrics used by the selection committee. If the Blue Devils and/or Wolverines falter, Arizona will be right there with the top spot in the bracket firmly within reach.



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Tags: ArizonabracketologyDukelurkingMichiganraceseedshaky
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