Bracketology: UConn squanders No. 1 seed, Auburn falls out of latest NCAA Tournament projection

UConn relinquished its hold on the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology by falling at home to Creighton, 91-84, in a stunning Wednesday night result. Houston has returned to the No. 1 line, edging UConn, Iowa State and Illinois in what continues to be a tight race for the last spot on the top line.

The Huskies (24-3, 14-2 Big East) were favored by 16.5 on their home floor against the Bluejays (14-13, 8-8), who entered with five losses in their last six games. After playing a handful of close games against middling opposition throughout league play, UConn finally got burned.

Creighton soared 10 spots in the NET from 83rd to 73rd as a result of the win. Since the Bluejays are in the top 75, the game technically goes down as a Quad 2 loss for UConn. But it was nonetheless a bad home defeat against a Creighton team with virtually no hope of making the NCAA Tournament (outside of a run at the Big East Tournament).

As a result, Houston has returned to No. 1 seed status for the time being. The Cougars (23-3, 11-2 Big 12) are coming off a narrow Monday loss at Iowa State. But they own a three-spot edge on Iowa State in Wins Above Bubble, which is a vital resume metric. They also have an edge on the Cyclones in the predictive metrics that appear on NCAA team sheets.

For more on the No. 1 seed race and the NCAA Tournament bubble, keep scrolling. For now, here’s a peak at the top of the hierarchy.

Bracketology top seeds

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

Illinois is in the mix

Illinois demonstrated its high-end potential again Wednesday night with 101-65 road beatdown of a USC team that is fighting for its spot in the NCAA Tournament field. The win solidified the Illini as a top-five team in predictive metrics and further bolstered a good resume.With five losses on its ledger, Illinois doesn’t immediately catch the eye and jump out as an obvious No. 1 seed candidate. But when you peel back the layers, it’s apparent the Illini belong in the conversation. With nonconference wins over Texas Tech and Tennessee and Big Ten road wins over Iowa, Purdue and Nebraska, Illinois has demonstrated strong upside. Its three league losses are by a combined eight points against quality opposition, and two of them came in overtime. Circle next Friday’s home game against Michigan. A win there would be hard to ignore in the race for the fourth No. 1 seed.

Alabama boosts resume, continues to gain momentum

Alabama’s thrilling 117-115 double-overtime victory over Arkansas on Wednesday catapulted the Crimson Tide from a No. 5 seed to a No. 4 seed, positioning Bama to potentially hear its name called during Saturday’s bracket preview on CBS that will give an early look at the top 16 seeds. While Arkansas maintains a two-spot edge on Alabama in the NET, the Crimson Tide own a clear edge in resume metrics used by the selection committee.

Wins over St. John’s and Illinois away from home in November are paying off for Alabama now. The Crimson Tide has also quietly won five straight games, including three in a row since center Charles Bediako’s controversial five-game stint with the team came to an end.

Alabama replaced Texas Tech on the No. 4 seed line following the news that Red Raiders star JT Toppin will miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Toppin’s loss is expected to have a major impact on the Red Raiders, who will play their first game without him on Saturday against Kansas State.

Bubble movement

Wednesday night’s results led to significant movement on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Most notably, Auburn plummeted to First Four Out territory following a Quad 2 loss at Mississippi State. It was the Tigers’ fifth consecutive defeat. While Auburn has no losses outside the top two quadrants, it is now 6-12 in Quads 1 and 2 and in a prolonged tailspin. No teams with a winning percentage of below 54% have received an at-large bid in at least the past five NCAA Tournaments. Auburn now owns a 53.8% winning percentage as it prepares to host Kentucky on Saturday.

Other notable bubble results— Saint Mary’s (No. 11 seed) survived for a 72-70 win at Seattle in a game that came down to the final possession.— Texas A&M (No. 10 seed) snapped a four-game losing streak by rallying for an 80-77 win over Ole Miss.— Seton Hall (Next Four Out) suffered a devastating home loss to DePaul.— West Virginia (Next Four Out) took a potential bubble-busting home loss against Utah.— Missouri (Last Four In) survived for an 81-80 win over Vanderbilt.

Here is the full bubble picture: