Predicting how AP Top 25 poll voters will react to results during the season can become predictable after studying voter’s habits and tendencies.
But predicting how voters will cast their ballots in the first preseason poll of 2025-26? That’s anyone’s guess. And that anyone will be yours truly.
As I do ahead of each AP Top 25 poll release — from preseason to the final poll of the postseason — I will release my No. 1-25 rankings based on how I think voters will rank the teams. Not how I would rank the teams and not how Gary Parrish would rank the teams — but how I think the teams will be ranked when the ballots are tabulated and the results are published.
Purdue shows quiet confidence it can break through in NCAA Tournament, end Big Ten’s 25-year title drought
Gary Parrish
This recurring post is normally called Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today, though this time it comes a few days early with the AP preseason Top 25 poll set to be released Monday. Let’s dive in.
1. Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue and coach Matt Painter bring back four starters — including two potential First Team All-Americans in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn — from a team that won 24 games and narrowly lost to eventual national runner-up Houston in the Sweet 16. All told, it returns almost 80% of its scoring, and the returnees shot 49.1% from the field and 39.4% on 3-pointers. This team has firepower aplenty and plenty of star power.
2. Houston Cougars
Coming off a national title game appearance, Houston brings back three starters — Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler — after setting a program record with 35 wins last season. Coach Kelvin Sampson also enrolls the highest-rated signee in program history, five-star Chris Cenac Jr., as well as freshmen phenoms Isiah Harwell, Kingston Flemings and Bryce Jackson.
Florida bolstered its already-strong starting lineup led by Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh with offseason acquisitions of guards Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee, giving the Gators a bonafide top-five preseason team. The reigning champions have a real chance to go back-to-back with the way they’ve recruited and developed.
St. John’s returns star forward Zuby Ejiofor from a team that won its first outright Big East title in four decades. It also added to its ranks via the portal with the No. 1-ranked class in the portal led by Bryce Hopkins, Ian Jackson and Joson Sanon.
5. UConn Huskies
Some of the best pieces from UConn’s 24-win club last season — Solo Ball, Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr., among others — are back. And coach Dan Hurley has added to those pieces strategically via the portal with the likes of Silas Demary Jr. and Malachi Smith as well as through the high school ranks with five-star Braylon Mullins. This team will be a level up defensively from last year’s and should have the offensive firepower we’ve become accustomed to seeing the last couple years.
6. Duke Blue Devils
What Duke lacks in experience it makes up for, as usual, with talent, led by the No. 1 incoming recruiting class. Five-star Cameron Boozer is the headliner of that bunch, and Duke will rely heavily on five-star Nikolas Khamenia, five-star Dame Sarr and four-star Cayden Boozer, too. The return of Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba give this team depth and length.
7. BYU Cougars
Houston will be the favorite in the Big 12 but BYU may have a say in that after adding five-star AJ Dybantsa and a huge portal class highlighted by Baylor guard Rob Wright. Second-year coach Kevin Young also has a star in Richie Saunders around which to once again build one of the most dynamic offenses in basketball.
Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin returns for Texas Tech on a team that has remade itself via the portal with five newcomers. Coach Grant McCasland will rely heavily on Washington State transfer LeJuan Watts and big man Luke Bamgboye to complement Toppin, who last season guided the Red Raiders to a 28-win campaign.
The first Michigan team under coach Dusty May built around Danny Wolf, Vlad Goldin and Tre Donaldson won 27 games and was very good. The second team has a chance to be great. May landed No. 1 transfer Yaxel Lendeborg and also added point guard Elliot Cadeau and forward Morez Johnson Jr. to help balance out this roster.
If Louisville isn’t a top-10 preseason team it’ll be a top-10 team soon. Pat Kelsey has a Dynamic (capital D, baby!) point guard in Mikel Brown Jr. and one of the best backcourts in the country rounded out by Isaac McKneely and Ryan Conwell. This team is going to score in bunches and have tons of roster versatility.
Otega Oweh — a true star — is among those returning for Kentucky on a roster that on the whole looks more balanced and deeper than it was last season when it won 24 games. Arizona State transfer Jayden Quaintance, Pitt transfer Jaland Lowe and Alabama transfer Mouhamed Dioubate give this team a ton of experience.
Four of Arizona’s top eight scorers are back this season (Jaden Bradley, Tobe Awake, Motiejus Krivas and Anthony Dell’Orso) and adding to that mix is the No. 2 incoming recruiting class in the sport led by five-stars Koa Peat and Brayden Burries and three-star Bryce James, among others. There’s a lot of youth but also a lot of talent in Tucson. Coach Tommy Lloyd’s team has a high ceiling if the pieces hit.
13. UCLA Bruins
UCLA added a star in Donovan Dent from the transfer portal and will be relying on him to elevate returning pieces that include Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark. Dent was the only player to average more than 20 points per game and an assist rate greater than 35% last season. Star.
14. Alabama Crimson Tide
The fastest team (by adjusted tempo at KenPom.com) brings back the dynamic duo of Labaron Philon Jr. and Aden Holloway and could have Jalil Bethea as a running mate if he can return from an offseason foot surgery. There’s a lot of continuity on this roster and the system and scheme executed by coach Nate Oats all but guarantees 20+ wins and SEC contention.
15. Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State returns three starters (Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic) from a team that finished 11th in KenPom ratings last season. This T.J. Otzelberger-cooached club should again by dominating defensively (last season it allowed 93.2 points per 100 possessions, ranking 13th nationally) even as it infuses its roster with eight newcomers.
16. Kansas Jayhawks
My preseason ballot would have Kansas closer to the top 10 than this. But I expect voters may be skeptical of KU this season despite adding No. 1 overall recruit Darryn Peterson. They return only one of the top seven scorers from last season (Flory Bidunga) and have some big holes to fill despite some big talent on the way.
Coach Bruce Pearl’s retirement from coaching this offseason shouldn’t keep voters from putting the Tigers in the poll Monday. They bring back Tahaad Pettiford and have a stellar group of transfers to boot led by Elyjah Freeman and Kevin Overton.
Five of Tennessee’s top scorers are gone from last season but five-star Nate Ament and transfers Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Jaylen Carey and Amaree Abram should provide stability for coach Rick Barnes. You can count on him to once again piece together an elite defense, and there is enough here to complement that with a capable offense.
John Calipari has some returning faces (DJ Wagner, Karter Knox, Trevon Brazille and Billy Richmond III), some fresh young talent (Darius Acuff Jr., Meleek Thomas, Isaiah Sealy and Karim Rtail) and some transfers (Malique Ewin and Nick Pringle) to blend together in Fayetteville. There’s experience, depth and defense in spades. After a surprise run to the Sweet 16 there is momentum building in the Razorbacks’ sails.
20. Illinois Fighting Illini
An influx of international talent and the addition of star Cal transfer Andrej Stojakovic gives coach Brad Underwood and Cal a uniquely-built roster that will be among the oldest in the Big Ten. Returning starters Kylan Boswell and Tomislav Ivisic, who averaged more than 20 points per game last season combined, also ensure there is some continuity here as well.
In what feels like a make-or-break season at UNC for coach Hubert Davis, the Tar Heels have placed big bets in the portal on Kyan Evans, Henri Veesaar, Jarin Stevenson, Jonathan Powell and Jaydon Young. They make up for five of the nine newcomers on this team that also includes five-star Caleb Wilson.
The core of this team will be built on returning stars Graham Ike and Braden Huff with bets on transfers Adam Miller and Tyon Grant-Foster, the latter of whom still needs a waiver. Gonzaga failed to reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament last season but should be in line to retake its place atop the WCC.
23. Michigan State Spartans
Will voters leave coach Tom Izzo’s team off the preseason AP Top 25 poll? They did last season — only for the Spartans to finish inside the top 10. They return assists leader Jeremy Fears Jr., blocks leader Jaxon Kohler and superstar athlete Coen Carr from a team that won 30 games last season. Bet against Izzo at your own peril.
24. Texas Longhorns
It might be a slow burn in Sean Miller’s first season at the helm in Austin but this Texas team is capable of making the NCAA Tournament and being top-25 quality with the return of Tramon Mark, Chendall Weaver and Jordan Pope. UT also added five players out of the portal who were ranked as four-star transfers at 247Sports.
I could talk up Wisconsin’s ability to fill holes in the portal this offseason or its scouting it did to acquire players internationally and locally. But the truth is: this ranking is based on All-Big Ten guard John Blackwell taking a step forward into stardom. He’s one of the best guards in college hoops and could carry Wisconsin to another 25+ win season. Also projected to earn votes: Ohio State, Oregon, Creighton, Vanderbilt, Missouri, USC, Cincinnati
Projected to earn votes: Ohio State, Oregon, Creighton, Vanderbilt, Missouri, USC, Cincinnati
