With the NCAA Event increasing from 68 groups to 76 for the 2026-27 school basketball season, followers of high-major applications will probably be much less tolerant than ever when their groups fail to achieve the Large Dance. Since all eight of the brand new spots are going to at-large groups, the expectation is that almost all of them will find yourself within the arms of the facility leagues.
However even with the NCAA Event increasing, there are sure to be applications that went dancing final season solely to be not noted this yr. There is just too a lot volatility within the mass switch period for anybody apart from the very best spenders to roll off the bed and sleepwalk to the Large Dance.
Baylor and Creighton — two bulwarks of consistencey over the prior decade — every noticed streaks of 5 straight NCAA Event appearances finish final season. Auburn and Marquette additionally noticed their match streaks finish at 4.
Different high-major applications that made the 2025 NCAA Event however then missed it in 2026 included Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Xavier, Marquette and Maryland.
Projected beginning lineups, greatest preseason battles for every high-major staff as first practices get underway
Isaac Trotter
For this week’s version of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are predicting which 2026 NCAA Event at-large staff will not be again within the 2027 Large Dance.
NC State
Whether or not it is Jon Scheyer at Duke, Penny Hardaway at Memphis or Matt Painter at Purdue, I at all times like the concept of individuals returning to their alma maters to educate at locations the place they as soon as performed. These marriages do not at all times go nicely, clearly. However after they do, there are few issues cooler as a result of you understand their hearts are actually, actually in it.
Justin Gainey is among the many newest to hitch that membership.
The previous affiliate head coach at Tennessee performed 4 seasons at NC State from 1996 to 2000, graduated with a Enterprise Administration diploma after which labored alongside Sidney Lowe on the ACC campus from 2006 to 2009. Now, 17 years later, Gainey is again in Raleigh as NC State’s coach.
It is an ideal story.
And I am optimistic he’ll do nicely in time. However Paul McNeil Jr. and Ven-Allen Lubin are the one related gamers again from final season’s staff that Will Wade snuck into the NCAA Event with a No. 11 seed and the recruiting class ranks simply 63rd nationally, based on 247Sports. That is not the perfect combo.
Would I guess my 401K on this prediction?
Completely not.
However, a minimum of from my perspective, Gainey might want to overachieve with this roster to make the NCAA Event in his first season at NC State. So the Wolfpack seem to be an affordable reply to this query introduced on this Dribble Handoff. — Gary Parrish
Iowa
Iowa rode the all-Large Ten play of veteran level guard Bennett Stirtz to a breakthrough first season below coach Ben McCollum, because the Hawkeyes shocked reigning nationwide champion Florida within the Candy 16 earlier than bowing out with an Elite Eight loss to Illinois. With Stirtz now gone after taking part in 4 seasons below McCollum at three totally different faculties, this might be a reset yr for one of many teaching occupation’s rising stars.
The excellent news is that 5 rotational gamers, together with three starters, are again. Iowa supplemented that core with Illinois State switch Ty’Reek Coleman at guard and seven-footer Andrew McKeever, who will carry a component of dimension that Iowa was lacking a season in the past. However it could possibly’t be overstated how a lot Stirtz did for the Hawkeyes whereas main the staff in scoring and assists. Every little thing the Hawkeyes did revolved round Stirtz, who logged 37.7 minutes per recreation. Final yr’s No. 2 and No. 3 scorers (Tavion Banks and Alvaro Folgueiras) are additionally gone, leaving Iowa with a completely revamped offensive hierarchy. — David Cobb
UCF
I simply do not see it with a roster that appears drastically totally different from final yr’s 21-win membership. UCF is presently dealing with the truth that it has to interchange its six of its high seven scorers, together with stud level guard Themus Fulks who made every thing hum.
The replacements are lower than snuff.
Effectively-traveled lead guard Dior Johnson is a complete bucket-getter, and 7-foot-2 heart John Bol is again to patrol the paint, however Johnny Dawkins wants quite a few mid-major transfers to pop within the Large 12. NC A&T switch Lewis Walker, Charleston switch Mister Dean and FGCU switch Isaiah Malone are three key swing items. On paper, you possibly can see the bones of a defensive nucleus. Arturo Dean can actually warmth up the basketball on the level of assault. Mister Dean, when wholesome, is without doubt one of the high athletes in school basketball. Bol ranked sixth in Large 12 play in block proportion. Protection must be the calling-card for this group, however I feel they want some reinforcements within the five-in-five market to be a real at-large staff. Possibly Riley Kugel can return to Orlando after main the staff in scoring final yr at almost 15 factors an evening? However can UCF be good once more if it is only a bunch of iso ball between Johnson and Kugel?
I am hesitant.
The Crown awaits. — Isaac Trotter
Georgia
Georgia bought embarrassed by Saint Louis within the first spherical of the NCAA Event. Even with match enlargement, I feel Georgia will likely be one in every of final season’s at-large groups to overlook out on the Large Dance completely. The brand new key nonconference video games that I will likely be maintaining a tally of are in opposition to North Carolina (Nov. 13 in Chapel Hill) and Duke (Dec. 8 in New York). The sport in opposition to UNC might be an enormous swing recreation for Georgia’s resume, as the remainder of the nonconference schedule is not precisely a option to stack high quality wins.
The Bulldogs misplaced main scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson to Arkansas and large man Somto Cyril to Miami. Georgia does return Blue Cain and Marcus Millender, however I do not suppose Mike White’s roster has the firepower to maintain up with the remainder of the SEC. Regardless of successful a minimum of 20 video games in every of the final three seasons, White remains to be on the lookout for his first match win with the Bulldogs. This season will not be the yr that occurs. — Cameron Salerno
