Duke vs. Louisville prediction, odds, time: 2026 college basketball picks from proven model

The No. 23 Louisville Cardinals take on the fifth-ranked Duke Blue Devils in a key ACC matchup on Monday night. Louisville is coming off an 85-71 win over Virginia Tech on Saturday, while Duke downed Wake Forest 90-69 that same day. The Cardinals (14-5, 4-3 ACC), who are tied for sixth in the conference, are 2-3 on the road this season. The Blue Devils (18-1, 7-0 ACC), who are 6-1 against ranked opponents, are 9-0 on their home court.

Tipoff from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., is set for 7 p.m. ET. Duke leads the all-time series 18-9, including a 5-3 edge in games at Durham. Duke is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Louisville vs. Duke odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 157.5. Before making any Louisville vs. Duke picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and it enters Week 12 on a sizzling 10-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns. 

Now, the model has simulated Louisville vs. Duke 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Duke vs. Louisville:

Louisville vs. Duke spread:    

Duke -7.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Louisville vs. Duke over/under:    

157.5 points

Louisville vs. Duke money line:    

Louisville +252, Duke -316

Louisville vs. Duke picks:    

See picks at SportsLine

Louisville vs. Duke streaming:

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How to make Louisville vs. Duke picks

SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (157.5 points). The Under has hit in each of the last four head-to-head matchups between the schools. The Under has also hit in five of the last six Louisville games, and in two of the last three Duke games. The Cardinals are 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games, while the Blue Devils are 5-5 ATS in their last 10.

The model projects the Cardinals to have four players register 10.7 points or more, including Ryan Conwell’s projected 17.7 points. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, are projected to have four players score 10 or more points, led by Cameron Boozer, who is projected to score 22.4 points. The model projects a combined total of 157 points as the Under clears in over 50% of simulations.

The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. Louisville, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Louisville vs. Duke spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.