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Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction, pick, odds, spread, where to watch live

January 30, 2026
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One of the biggest games during the conference play portion of the 2025-26 college basketball season will take place in East Lansing, Michigan, when No. 7 Michigan State faces No. 3 Michigan on Friday. This is the 197th all-time meeting between the programs, with Michigan leading the series over its in-state rival, 104-92.

Michigan State has won the last four meetings against Michigan, and the Wolverines’ last win over the Spartans at the Breslin Center came in 2018.

The Wolverines are coming off a dramatic 75-72 win over Nebraska at home, which marked the Cornhuskers’ first loss of the season. Michigan has won its last five games since losing to Wisconsin at home. The Spartans’ lone loss in Big Ten play came against Nebraska on the road earlier this month. Since that game, the Spartans have fired off seven consecutive victories to move to 9-1 in Big Ten play.

Here is everything you need to know ahead of Michigan’s matchup with Michigan State on Friday.

Michigan vs. Michigan State: Need to know

Wolverine bigs vs. the Spartans is the matchup to watch: The staple of Dusty May’s tenure at Michigan has been using two bigs. Last year, May deployed Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin on the front line. This year, Michigan has been running Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara in the frontcourt. That can be a matchup nightmare for opponents. Facing the Wolverines physical and elite front court will be Michigan State’s No. 1-ranked defense in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com. Spartan bigs Jaxson Kohler and Carson Cooper will face their toughest matchup yet.

Michigan State seeks best start in program history: With a win over Michigan, the Spartans would move to 20-2. That would mark the best 22-game start in program history. Michigan State’s losses this season have both come against top 10 teams. Michigan State lost at home last month against No. 4 Duke (66-60) and fell to Nebraska on the road (58-56). That historic start was almost put in jeopardy earlier this week when MSU had to rally to defeat Rutgers 88-79 in overtime. In that game, Michigan State trailed for almost 36 minutes of regulation.

Winner takes control of the Big Ten race: With Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois all with just one loss against Big Ten competition, the winner of Friday night’s game will move into sole possession of first place in the conference. While both of these teams are set to meet again later this season, this game will have huge implications for who wins the conference. Notably, Michigan State and Michigan both face Illinois again this season.

Where to watch Michigan vs. Michigan State live

Date: Friday, Jan. 30 | Time: 8 p.m. ETLocation: Breslin Center — East Lansing, MichiganTV: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)

Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction, pick

Michigan is 5-0 in true road games this season, while Michigan State is 11-1 at home. The Wolverines have played better since dropping their first game of the season against Wisconsin. The key matchup here is whether Lendeborg can get going. The former UAB star was a double-double machine last season. However, he has recorded just three double-doubles at Michigan. My prediction is he has a big night, and Michigan wins by five. Pick: Michigan -1.5

Who will win and cover in every college basketball game? Visit SportsLine to get picks from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times and is up more than $1,200 for $100 players on its top-rated spread picks the past six years. 



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