2026 March Madness picks: Predictions against the spread, odds for NCAA Tournament championship game Monday

The final game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament has arrived, and the college basketball world will set its sights on Indianapolis on Monday night for a fantastic finale as No. 1 seed Michigan takes on No. 2 seed UConn for the national championship. With 70 combined wins on the season, both teams have been among the top picks to compete for a title throughout much of the season and now get 40 minutes to fulfill that destiny. 

For Dusty May and Michigan, a win would be a warning sign to the sport of what’s to come from the Wolverines under his watch. A Michigan program operating at peak efficiency can be among the most disruptive forces in a college basketball landscape that can often get familiar with its main characters. But teams like Houston, Florida, Duke, Arizona, Kansas or Purdue aren’t the ones still playing, and you get the feeling looking at how Michigan has navigated this quick turnaround under may that it has already jumped up into a tier to be taken seriously on a regular basis. A win would also snap a 26-year title drought for the Big Ten, which has not seen a current member win it all since Michigan State in 2000 (interestingly enough, in Indianapolis). 

But the one main character of college basketball who is still playing, and stands in the way of that break through for Michigan and the Big Ten, is UConn. 

Dan Hurley is pursuing his third ring in four years and the program is on the cusp of claiming its seventh national championship since 1999. That would leave UConn with the third-most titles all-time trailing only UCLA (11) and Kentucky (8). And it should be noted that the Huskies have won all seven of their championships since UCLA won its most recent in 1995. 

Yet this UConn team which exemplifies elite performance in the NCAA Tournament finds itself as an underdog in the national title game, a stage where the Huskies have yet to lose. That speaks to the greatness of Michigan and how well-constructed, well-rounded and well-coached the Wolverines have been all season and in this tournament. 

The health status of key players for both teams threatened to throw a wrench into the matchup. Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg was injured during the first half of the Wolverines’ national semifinal win against Arizona, but he returned to action and has indicated his plans to play in the title game after receiving treatment on his knee and ankle between games. UConn also has a major injury to note with Solo Ball suffering a foot injury in the win against Illinois. Ball was seen with a boot during media availability on Sunday, however neither player was listed on their school’s NCAA initial player availability report indicating thy will play in Monday’s game. For title contenders the phrase “next man up” becomes crucial to the pursuit of a title, but which team can get the most from its walking wounded or can supplement their production will have an edge in a game that could be decided at the margins. 

Now that the stage is set let’s get into the picks. Since we have been in the habit of offering multiple picks from full tournament slates in this series, there are going to be multiple angles to entertain for this single game left in the 2025-26 season. But in addition to thoughts on the spread and the total, we have included more a traditional approach with straight up and against the spread selections via our Expert Picks panel. 

(1) Michigan vs. (2) UConn 

8:49 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

The math says Michigan but the mood says UConn finds a way. The Huskies’ resilience through injuries and deficits throughout this tournament echoes the call of Dan Hurley for his teams to show the heart of a champion in the postseason. The Huskies are going to face a tough foe in Michigan’s front line, but they are coming into the game after facing another team with size in Illinois and passing the test. In fact, UConn’s tournament run has included three single-digit seeds from the Big Ten with Michigan being the fourth, and the Huskies had a strong showing defensively against all three teams. The key for UConn will be to get down into those final minutes within a couple of possessions, because if this pack of dogs smells blood they are going to be ready to deliver in crunch time. Michigan could win this thing by 10-15 points in a coronation moment for Dusty May and the Big Ten, but if it’s close I like the Huskies to not just cover the spread but close it out by cutting down nets. 

As for the total points scored, the trends do favor lower-scoring games by the time we get to Monday night’s national championship. The under has gone 6-2 in the last eight national title games, which might be as much of a reflection on late-round fatigue as it is the football stadium setting of the Final Four. But here the reasoning is focused far more on the matchup, where as we mentioned earlier UConn has had some great game plans and execution three of its last four tournament opponents and Michigan has been absolutely stifling in its recent wins against Tennessee in the Elite Eight and Arizona in the Final Four. Any kind of shooting regression for UConn from 3-point range will lower output after the Huskies knocked down 12 3-pointers against Illinois, and of course any limitation for Yaxel Lendeborg lowers Michigan’s offensive ceiling as well.    Picks: UConn ML +240, Under 144.5