It’s Michigan versus UConn for all the marbles. The beauty of this heavyweight fight is just how these styles contrast in such violent ways. Michigan uses speed, power and paint dominance to vanquish its foes. UConn depends on superb execution offensively and maniacal fire to thrive on defense.
Something has to give in the championship bout between Dan Hurley and Dusty May, who lead staffs that are revered as some of the best gameplanners in the sport.
Matchup-wise, some fascinating decisions will be made in the coming hours while each staff dissects the film and formulates the plan.
I’d expect the matchups to look like this (with a heavy dose of switching 1-through-4 from Michigan):
Elliot Cadeau
Braylon Mullins
Cadeau’s speed could be an issue for Mullins on either side of the floor. Mullins has to be positionally sound and defend without fouling against Michigan’s PG1.
Nimari Burnett
Solo Ball
Both guys are veteran shooters who know how to play. It’s the mirror image of the other.
Yaxel Lendeborg
Silas Demary Jr.
UConn has no other options for Lendeborg with this lineup combination. Demary is UConn’s biggest guard and best chance to contain him. Lendeborg has guarded point guards all year, and shadowing Demary allows him to roam a little as well.
Morez Johnson
Alex Karaban
Johnson’s physicality will give Karaban issues. Karaban’s off-movement shooting and cutting will give Johnson issues. This one is fascinating.
Aday Mara
Tarris Reed
Mara is Michigan’s best bet to defend Reed’s low-post duck-ins. UConn could use one more big body (Donovan Clingan, you got any extra eligibility??) in this matchup because if Reed gets in foul trouble, the Huskies are in hot water.
Let’s dive into the top trends to know on each side of the aisle.
UConn Huskies (34-5)
Key trend: UConn scores 9.3 points per game directly off screens, which ranks No. 2 in college basketball
VMI is the only team that scores more points off screens than UConn. Dan Hurley’s offense is a labyrinth of ghost screens, stagger screens, back screens, rip screens, re-screens, veer screens, dribble handoffs, slips, Zooms and some basketball X’s and O’s that might not have a name yet because it’s that exotic.
Michigan’s raw size is a problem, but in this matchup, it could create some problems in the screen navigation department. Michigan’s terrifying four-man Morez Johnson is all of 6-feet-9 and 250 pounds. If Johnson gets the Alex Karaban assignment, the Michigan big man will have to get skinny to zoom around all the screens and stay attached to a career 38% 3-point shooter who enters Monday’s National Championship due for an explosion. Karaban is just 2 for 13 from downtown in the last two games.
“It’s going to be a challenge, healthy or injured or somewhere in between,” Michigan coach Dusty May said. “Obviously, the most difficult thing about UConn is their ability to get from one thing to the next to the next to the next. There’s no stoppage. Once they get you in action, they keep you in action. They have amazing counters and layers to their offense. It’s going to take an extremely disciplined and focused approach every single possession because if you let your guard down, they take advantage of it.
“If we’re not committed to defending the full shot clock every single possession and finding a way to rebound those long threes, then it’s going to be a tough night for us.”
It took 12 treys for UConn to beat a gigantic Illinois team.
A similar script is vital to pull this upset, and a foot injury to Solo Ball will make the task even tougher. The lefty sharpshooter was in a boot after spraining his foot in the Final Four win over Illinois. Ball’s status is up in the air for Monday, but UConn certainly needs him to play.
“We’re going to have to make shots,” Hurley said. “These guys, the size, the paint, obviously, we can’t abandon what we do. It’s been kind of the story of the season. It’s been bricks away at times. We’ve been laying bricks at different times, but we’ve made enough shots to get here. When we went back and watched our shot attempts last night, we had great, great shots.
“I mean, the fact that we shot 30 whatever percent from the field yesterday speaks to the struggle at times that it’s been just to be able to make good shots and then the transition finishes and different things. We’re not going to get away with that on Monday night. We’ve got to have a really good night shooting the ball on Monday.”
Michigan’s best bet may be to switch some of these off-ball actions and try to turn Demary into a scorer in late-clock scenarios. But that’s easier said than done against Hurley and Co.
Michigan Wolverines (36-3)
Key trend: Michigan is 0-2 in games with 63 possessions or fewer.
Michigan has lost the two slowest games it played this year. That’s not a coincidence. When you play at Michigan’s pace, you are dead on arrival. Arizona tried to out-run Michigan and got walloped by the most dominant transition offense in the game.
Dragging this game down to a crawl is the way to keep Michigan under wraps.
Purdue got Michigan to play a 63-possession game and won 80-72. Duke sunk Michigan into a 62-possession game and won 68-63.
UConn does some of its best work in the slop. A whopping 13 UConn games have featured 63 or fewer possessions. 21 (!) are humming at a 65-possession game or less.
“I think Iowa is a great example of a team that plays not stylistically similar but philosophically,” May said. “They challenge everything. Their physicality jumps out. It’s going to be a lower-possession game than we’re used to. If we’re not committed to defending the full shot clock every single possession and finding a way to rebound those long threes, then it’s going to be a tough night for us.”
Michigan held on to beat Iowa 71-68, despite turning it over 18 times in a 65-possession game.
UConn’s path to an upset gets a lot more viable by making this one a slog, turning Michigan over and forcing the most unselfish team in the country to play isolation ball.
Michigan has to do everything in its power to loosen this game up and get it popping by playing with force and keep finding ways to use leverage and create open shots.
Deep duck-ins for Johnson against Karaban will be there. High-lows with Johnson or Mara will be there. You can drive Ball and Mullins. There are advantages to be had in the halfcourt if Michigan plays with force, but UConn has to live with it. Because letting Michigan run is just inviting a stomping.
