Tomorrow’s Top 25 college basketball rankings prediction: Iowa State moves up

A week of chaos in college basketball — during which we saw 11 ranked teams suffer at least one loss and three teams suffer two losses — guarantees that Monday’s AP Top 25 poll will bring with it plenty of upheaval. The only sure thing going into Monday: No. 1 Arizona will remain No. 1, and it also might have the strongest grip on the ranking for any No. 1 team all season, to boot.

Arizona’s share of first-place votes has fallen each of the last three weeks — from 42 to 38 to 32 last week — as No. 2 Michigan made its case for No. 1 and ate into its hold on the spot. But Michigan’s first loss of the season Saturday at home to Wisconsin as 19.5-point favorites means the runway is clear for the Wildcats to seize full control at No. 1. 

The most first-place votes a team has gotten this season was Purdue’s 46 in Week 4. Arizona could and likely will enter that territory Monday.

Michigan’s loss also clears the way for undefeated Iowa State to move up one spot to No. 2 — which would mark not just its highest ranking of the season but also tie its highest standing in the AP poll in program history. Only once has ISU ranked No. 2 in the poll — and that came Week 11 of last season.

College basketball scores, winners, losers: Michigan loses first game, Nebraska tops Indiana, remains unbeaten

Kyle Boone

As you can tell, Michigan’s loss is the precipitating event that will cause this inevitable commotion Monday, and how AP voters handle the Wolverines in the poll is a mystery. My guess, however, is that Michigan — 14-1 overall and still leading the sport in scoring margin — will settle in ballots and remain somewhere inside the top five.

In fact, that’s hardly the toughest decision for voters this week as they prep their ballots. Ten teams ranked 13th or worse suffered at least one loss this week. There is going to be plenty of shuffling in that area, and also perhaps some new teams enter the rankings because of it. Let’s get to my projections below.