By Eric Bottjer
There’s a wonderful heavyweight match-up this Saturday on DAZN (pay-per-view), a 50-50 match-up with Brits Fabio Wardley and Daniel Dubois going at it in Manchester.
Both guys can legitimately claim to be in the top 5 of their weight class (one claims, illegitimately, to be a world champion), each is in their prime and both can crack. Wardley, the older man at 31, is unbeaten, but he’s flirted with defeat twice in his most recent fights, coming from way back to knock out a 12-0 Justin Huni in the tenth round in June 2025 and then falling behind to Joseph Parker in his last fight in October before turning the KO trick with Parker in the 11th.On the face of it, these results can be good news to Dubois. Daniel is the busier fighter and can take a lead here. Wardley is also more hittable than Dubois, a recipe that sees Dubois potentially dominating early. And at 28, Daniel is the younger man.
Now for the bad news for Dubois. Wardley did come from behind to score those knockouts, and Parker and Huni are excellent fighters. The wins were not flukes. And the reason Wardley is more hittable than perhaps even his own team wantsis that he invests early to the body. Those late-round letdowns by his opponents weren’t accidents – Fabio set those up.
And now the really had news for Dubois – Daniel’s been stopped in all three of his losses. Two of them late (10th round against Joe Joyce, 9th round against Oleksandr Usyk). In his last match, a rematch with Usyk, Dubois was never in the fight and was wrecked in five rounds.
So, taking in all of the above, you see Dubois taking a lead and then faltering down the stretch. He does have a breaking point. But he’s no coward. The Joyce ending came when Dubois suffered a fractured orbital bone. That injury brings sudden intense pain, double vision and an excruciating headache. Moving your eyes cause pain. Yes, some guys ahead on points – as Daniel was against Joyce – would have gutted it out. But Dubois, in that position for the first time, is no coward for taking a knee.
Usyk broke Dubois in their first fight in nine rounds – the mental pressure the Ukranian puts on these bigger guys is a wonder to witness (and I’m sure horrible to experience if you’re the one in the ring). The five-round rematch was a blowout. Dubois just wasn’t there that night.
He’ll be there Saturday, because he knows he can beat Wardley. But he won’t. Wardley may have to come from behind, but I don’t see him falling way behind, as he’s done recently. Dubois is hittable enough for Wardley to keep it close on the cards. I see Fabio catching him down the stretch, and Daniel hanging tough to lose respectably in 12 rounds. At +600 on Wardley by decision, it’s a good bet.
