By Martin Graham
The Champions League resumes this week, and several heavyweight clubs find themselves back in action sooner than anticipated. Under the revamped structure, 36 teams faced eight different opponents between September and January. The top eight progressed directly to the round of 16, while the bottom 12 were knocked out.
Sides finishing from ninth to 24th must now negotiate a two-legged knockout tie, with eight winners advancing. Among those required to take this additional step are reigning European champions Paris St-Germain and Inter Milan, the team they defeated 5-0 in the 2025 final.
Real Madrid, winners of the competition 15 times, also missed out on automatic qualification. Juventus, Borussia Dortmund, and Benfica are in the same position. Benfica secured their place in dramatic fashion when goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored deep into stoppage time in a 4-2 victory over Real Madrid to avoid elimination. The two clubs meet again immediately in the playoffs.
Five of England’s six entrants claimed top-eight finishes. Arsenal was flawless with eight victories from eight matches, Liverpool ended third, Tottenham fourth, Chelsea sixth, and Manchester City eighth. Newcastle United are the only English side involved in the play-offs and will face Qarabag, who were beaten 6-0 by Liverpool in January.
Proof that recovery is possible
Finishing outside the leading eight does not necessarily destroy title ambitions. Paris St-Germain demonstrated that last season. Luis Enrique’s team was on the brink of elimination when trailing Manchester City 2-0 at home on matchday seven. They rallied to win 4-2, then overcame Stuttgart 4-1 to secure 15th place in the league standings.
PSG swept aside Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the play-offs, edged past Liverpool on penalties in the last 16, and eliminated Aston Villa and Arsenal in the quarter-finals and semi-finals. The campaign concluded with a 5-0 triumph over Inter in the final.
This year PSG meets Monaco in the playoffs, and Luis Enrique remains confident. He stated that his squad was prepared for this scenario and insisted they could defend their crown despite the additional fixtures.
Other competitions adopted comparable formats. Real Betis reached the Conference League final after placing 15th in the league stage, eventually losing 4-1 to Chelsea. In contrast, the Europa League saw seven of the top eight reach the quarter-finals, with fourth-placed Tottenham defeating third-placed Manchester United in the final.
Opta’s projections suggest the extra ties do not significantly diminish hopes. PSG are rated more likely to lift the trophy than Tottenham and Sporting, despite the added hurdle. Newcastle and Inter are each given a 3% chance, matching Spurs. Arsenal, after a perfect league campaign, are assigned a 30% probability of claiming a first European title. Bayern Munich stands at 14%, Manchester City and Liverpool at 10%, while Chelsea and Barcelona are at 7%.
Clubs that secured direct passage to the last 16 expressed satisfaction at bypassing the playoffs. Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola welcomed the reduced workload, noting the increasing difficulty of the competition compared to previous years.
Mikel Arteta highlighted the significance of Arsenal’s eight straight wins, describing the achievement as difficult and crediting his players. Liverpool coach Arne Slot similarly emphasised the benefit of skipping a round, while Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior underlined the importance of additional training time to improve fitness levels.
Newcastle, though required to compete in the play-offs, remains optimistic. Opta estimates Eddie Howe’s side has an 88.5% likelihood of overcoming Qarabag to reach the last 16. Howe admitted he would likely have accepted a playoff place at the outset, stressing that his team continue to compete.
Defender Dan Burn also viewed the occasion positively, pointing out that Newcastle are reaching the Champions League knockout phase for the first time in their history and expressing pride in that achievement.
