By Martin Graham
Italy manager Gennaro Gattuso entered the international window already dissatisfied, and his irritation only grew before the loss to Norway confirmed Italy’s route to the 2026 World Cup would again depend on knockout ties. For a country that failed to reach the finals in both 2018 and 2022 due to playoff exits, the prospect of another high-risk path understandably concerns Italian supporters.
The expanded tournament in the United States, Mexico, and Canada will feature 48 nations for the first time next summer. Despite collecting six victories across eight matches, Italy finished behind Norway and now faces two one-off fixtures to secure a place at the finals they famously lifted in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006.
Gattuso argued that strong group form should guarantee qualification. He pointed to South America’s six direct entries and Africa’s nine spots as examples of systems that, in his view, give other regions a smoother route to the World Cup.
However, some points he raised were inaccurate. Africa had three representatives in 1994, not two, and South America’s seventh-placed team is not assured a meeting with Oceania. Additionally, runners-up did not always qualify outright in 1990, with Denmark missing out that year.
Does Europe face a tougher road?
European qualifying has grown more complex as the number of participating nations has risen. In 1990, 32 sides competed for places; by 1994, that number had increased to 39. Today, 54 teams are attempting to claim one of 16 World Cup slots. As participation expanded, maintaining larger groups became impractical.
A group containing six or seven teams would require more matchdays than exist in the current international schedule. To make the calendar sustainable, UEFA opted for smaller groups, reducing travel and intensity—ironically contradicting Gattuso’s argument for a format change.
Italy, seeded highest in their group, was placed alongside Norway, a rapidly improving side that defeated them twice with a combined score of 7–1. Although the system may be unforgiving, Italy did not help themselves in the most significant matches.
How does South America compare?
On the surface, South America’s path appears easier. Ten nations compete; six qualify directly, and a seventh moves on to the intercontinental play-offs. That amounts to 60% of teams progressing, compared with under 30% from Europe.
But the region’s competitive landscape differs. Eight of the ten nations rank within the world’s top 50, and even the lowest-rated side, Bolivia, holds a higher position than many European countries. The fixture list is also demanding: teams travel long distances across nine international windows and play twice each break, often against elite opposition.
Brazil advanced with six defeats, but they faced a far stronger average opponent than Italy, whose toughest adversary at the beginning of the campaign ranked 43rd.
Africa’s growing representation
Africa’s allocation rose to nine qualifiers for 2026. Apart from debutant Cape Verde, the continent’s representatives—such as Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, and Ivory Coast—are established presences at major tournaments. Six of these nations occupy top-50 positions, with Ghana the lowest at 73rd.
Statistically, Africa holds around 21% of the guaranteed places while supplying 14% of the top 50 teams, a slight over-allocation but not one that strongly contradicts merit. By contrast, Europe accounts for nearly half of the world’s top-ranked nations but receives only a third of the slots, a noticeable reduction from over 50% in the 1990s.
The confederation with the most disproportionate increase is Asia, which now receives eight direct entries despite having only four teams inside the top 50.
Is Gattuso justified or simply disappointed?
Gattuso’s concerns contain fragments of truth, particularly regarding the shrinking European share of World Cup places. Yet his argument downplays Europe’s structural advantages and overlooks Italy’s on-field shortcomings. While the numbers show some imbalance in global distribution, sympathy for Italy is limited given their repeated struggles in decisive games.
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