By Martin Graham
Not long ago, the struggle at the foot of the Premier League table appeared settled. West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Burnley seemed bound for the Championship as the campaign drifted toward its latter stages.
The opening weeks of 2026 have altered that mood. A handful of results have injected belief into clubs previously written off, even if the mathematics still look daunting for those occupying the lowest positions.
West Ham, in particular, has shown renewed life. A single victory in 10 outings before the New Year gave way to a morale lift in the FA Cup against Queens Park Rangers on 11 January, followed by league successes over Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland. Those outcomes trimmed the distance to 17th-placed Nottingham Forest to six points, despite a late setback at Chelsea.
Burnley’s recent draws with Liverpool and Tottenham hinted at resilience, yet a heavy loss at Sunderland on Monday kept them firmly rooted near the bottom, 11 points from safety. Wolves, meanwhile, still appear destined for relegation, although a modest improvement has at least steered them away from the record for the lowest-ever Premier League points return.
History offers little comfort to those chasing safety
Past seasons suggest how hard it is to escape once trouble deepens. Across 33 completed Premier League campaigns since 1992, only nine teams have managed to overturn a gap of six points or more after reaching the 23-game mark.
Aston Villa in 2019-20, Leicester City in 2014-15, and Sunderland in 2013-14 are the most recent examples, each recovering from a seven-point shortfall. Their achievements underline the scale of the task now facing this season’s strugglers.
Statistical models underline that challenge. After the latest round of fixtures, Wolves were given a survival probability of just 0.02%, with Burnley marginally higher at 2.02%. West Ham fare better by comparison, yet their prospects still stand at only 17.06%.
A forthcoming clash with Burnley offers the Hammers an opportunity to build further belief. Having already exceeded expectations in recent weeks, they are beginning to resemble a team playing without fear, aware that little is expected but plenty remains possible.
Mid-table anxiety spreads beyond the drop zone
The battle is not limited to the current bottom three. In truth, seven clubs remain at risk as the season enters its final stretch.
Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Crystal Palace, and Tottenham Hotspur all hover within reach of danger. Spurs sit highest of that group in 14th, holding 29 points after a spirited comeback draw against Manchester City on Sunday.
That result moved Thomas Frank’s side nine points clear of West Ham with 14 matches left. Even so, their recent record tells its own story, with only three points taken from the previous five league fixtures before facing City.
Elsewhere, Crystal Palace appear particularly vulnerable. The Eagles have failed to register a win in 12 matches across all competitions, following the sale of captain Marc Guehi to Manchester City and with manager Oliver Glasner due to depart at season’s end.
Forest occupy the spot nearest the relegation line, six points ahead of West Ham and level with Leeds in 16th. With momentum shifting and pressure mounting, the closing months promise a tense fight where survival may hinge on fine margins.
