Morning all.
I can’t really say the dust has settled after Sunday’s game, but at the very least I think we have some clarity about what needs to happen. Arsenal, in all likelihood, will have to win five games in a row to have a chance of winning the league. For a team that’s on a run of one win in six in all competitions, it feels like a lot to ask, but two things occur to me.
One is that this current form is an outlier based on what we’ve generally produced over the season so far, and the other that the laser-focus this scenario requires could be useful. After the 2-1 defeat to Man City, Mikel Arteta called this run-in ‘a new Premier League’, and that has to be the way we look at it. So, here’s a big question:
Can we do it?
On a very basic level, is this team capable of that kind of run? Well, earlier in the season we went on a run of 10 wins in a row from September 24th to November 4th. That consisted of 5 Premier League games, two League Cup games, and three Champions League games. There was also a run of 7 wins between December 10th and January 3rd which included the penalty shoot-out victory over Crystal Palace in the League Cup, along with 1 Champions League and 5 Premier League wins.
Last season we did not win 5 games in a row once. The season before we did it three times, with separate runs of 6 wins, 5 wins, and 6 wins spread across the campaign. In purely Premier League terms, we had a run of 8 successive wins in 2023-24, before that run of 6 towards the end of that season. This season, just in the league, we’ve done it twice. First back in September with a run of 5 wins that included Newcastle away, West Ham at home, Fulham away, Crystal Palace at home, and Burnley away. Then we drew with Sunderland.
The second run came in the aformentioned December with wins at home to Wolves, Everton away, Brighton and Aston Villa at home, and the 3-2 win away to Bournemouth. So, if you’re looking for some precedent, it’s actually there this season, we have done it more than once, so I think we I can see it’s something we can do.
Will we do it?
There’s the $64,000 question. I wish I could tell you with some certainty, but I don’t have a crystal ball. Maybe the better question is …
How do we do it?
Your mileage may vary as to whether or not you found any encouragement from our performance against City. The result was obviously bad, but I do think there were things that can provide, if not a blueprint per se, guiding factors for Mikel Arteta for these next five games.
I’ve said it more than once this season, but it’s been somewhat overlooked that we’ve been unable (mostly) and unwilling (sometimes) to see Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze on the pitch together at the same time. The team selection of Sunday saw both of them start, and for me that has to be something we lean into. I genuinely don’t think we’d be in such a tightrope scenario if we’d had the captain fit more often, and he and Eze had found time to build a proper on-pitch relationship.
On top of that, I think we have to continue with Kai Havertz up front. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we played some of our best stuff in a long time with a more techincal player at 9, one who can win duels and the run the channels more effectively. I know he missed chances, but it terms of the overall cohesion, if he’s physically ready, he has to start. It doesn’t mean Viktor Gyokeres won’t have a role to play, but after watching him all season, and acknowledging his contributions which make him our leading scorer, I just think he’s generally a poor fit for the way we want to play.
You can make the case that he’s someone who could well have benefitted from a fit Odegaard, and the relationship he might have forged with Eze, but when we need techincal security up front, he can’t be the guy we turn to. Those more disposed to Gyokeres than I might be often say ‘We have to play to his strengths’, which is fine, but that also means we have to recognise his weaknesses. And when he does start, as he’s going to have to with the Champions League games in the mix, we need him to perform like he did in that North London derby, for example, because too often the games pass him by.
With goal difference a potential deciding factor, there’s also a need to consider the full-back positions. Piero Hincapie and Cristhian Mosquera are both defensively very good, but we miss what Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber can give us in the opposition half. In the first half of the season the Italian had found the perfect balance in his game, producing his best defensive form as the team had its most parsimonious period of the campaign, but providing attacking thrust too.
As for Timber, while I found it frustrating at times that he became the focal point of our attack in positions you’d prefer to see a more natural forward player, he has 4 goals and 7 assists to his name in all competitions, and I think we need some of that back. Perhaps we sacrifice a little defensive solidity, but if now isn’t the time to go for it, then when is?
The last issue we have is a problem on the right hand side of the attack. Imagine Sunday with a full fit Timber and Bukayo Saka starting. You can’t say 100% we’d have got a result, but I think our chances would have been significantly better. It doesn’t seem as if Saka is going to be back any time soon, unfortunately, and there’s little about Noni Madueke’s form across this season that gives me the confidence he can perform and produce at the level necessary.
In 22 Premier League games this season he has 2 goals and 1 assist. He had a semi-decent run at the start when he played 5 in a row, looked quite lively, but in terms of end-product there was nothing. The alternative is a 16 year old who, as talented as he is, still looks very raw to me, and there are obviously aspects of his game that require development – which is completely normal for a young man of that age. It’s also a lot to ask a player that young to come in and shoulder such a burden, but I do think it’s something the manager has to give some consideration to.
Beyond that however, Arteta has to squeeze more juice out of his attacking players. These stats come via @Orbinho via this post on BlueSky (follow him here), reproduced in text format for ease of reading:
Leandro Trossard hasn’t scored in his last 22 games in all competitions
Bukayo Saka has two goals in his last 24 in all competitions
Gabriel Martinelli hasn’t scored in his last 23 Premier League games
Noni Madueke has two goals in 22 Premier League appearances
Martin Odegaard has one goal in his last 21 PL appearances
I think my reservations about Gyokeres expressed above are perfectly valid, but it’s also true to say he’s probably chipped in with goals at an expected level, and that too many of our attacking players are not producing anything close to what we need. That has to change. There are issues of form and injury which might mitigate some of those stats, but ultimately that level of output is not good enough for a team that wants to win the title. You might even say it’s something a miracle we are where we are with stats like that.
People categorise Arteta as defensive coach, and I understand that. You can’t look at how we’ve played at times this season, and indeed last, without that being part of your conclusion. For me, I think his ideas are more about building a high-functioning attack on a solid defensive platform, but too much of what we have done over the last 18 months has been informed/impacted by injury. That’s a separate discussion to today, but a legitimate one too – too many of our key players have been absent for too long, and unable to reach the levels we know they’re capable of. That’s a problem of the manager’s making and one we need to solve going forward.
I think he has erred on the side of too much caution at times, but let’s not ignore we’ve been without key players like Odegaard, Havertz, and Saka too often and for too long. That might be entirely his fault, but it’s also the reality – alongside the fact some of the players we brought in to add depth haven’t delivered enough or, in certain cases, not been deemed good enough to contribute. Just to be clear, I’m not making any excuses, but it’s 2024 since Odegaard, Saka and Havertz started at the same time, which is kinda crazy when you think about how effective they were in that title chase.
Bottom line though, too many players are under-performing in terms of goals and assists, and that’s something we have to address if we have any chance of winning these five games, and potentially scoring the amount of goals that might give us the edge over a Man City side with more firepower.
Which brings us to the final question:
What if we don’t do it?
I’m nearly 1600 words in this morning, and you might view this as a cop-out, but the answer to that one is we just have to wait until we have clarity. Being perfectly honest, I really feel quite down about us after the last few weeks, and that we’ve probably blown a brilliant chance to win the league, but it’s not over until it’s over. There’s also the possibility this team could make history by winning the Champions League for the first time. I don’t make us favourites by any means, but you just never know with cup football.
So, until such time as we know for certain, this is a topic I’ll leave to one side. It’s not that I don’t have some real thoughts about it, I absolutely do, but while we’re still competing and the landscape and mood could change massively over the next few weeks, it can wait.
Right, I’ll leave it there. As ever, your thoughts are very welcome in the Arses. Feel free to discuss and debate at will. For now, I’m gonna leave it there, and I hope you all have a lovely Tuesday.
