Why soccer’s summer transfer window lull won’t last long

The transfer market keeps soccer fans engaged during the offseason, but it has its own rhythms and cycles. And that may explain why the past 10 days or so have felt as if we were in the doldrums.

According to Transfermarkt data — in terms of official, completed deals — there were only 10 transfers worth more than €30 million since July 13, and even that number needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. One was Estêvão, whose move from Palmeiras to Chelsea — agreed as much as a year ago — could only be completed once the Club World Cup was over. Another was Juventus making Francisco Conceição’s move from FC Porto permanent, which we pretty much knew would happen as there were preexisting agreements in place just like the Estêvão deal.

Most summers, if you look at the transfer market trading volume, you see a clear pattern. You initially get a flurry of activity when the market opens, which was on June 16 this summer. (There was also a mini window in early June ahead of the Club World Cup.)

This makes sense because clubs often start negotiating deals in the spring, and if they reach an agreement, it’s in everyone’s interest to push the transfers through as soon as the window opens. This is especially true for clubs whose accounting year ends on June 30, which is most of them. Booking a transfer fee before accepting season ends can help make your numbers look better if you overspent during the year.

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You get another flurry on July 1 or immediately after. This covers free agents, of course, considering the vast majority of player contracts run through June 30. But you also get deals that were negotiated earlier that clubs want to shift to the following accounting period, which begins on July 1. There’s often a domino effect, where one deal unlocks a chain of other deals as clubs suddenly need replacements for those outgoing players and have the funds to get them.

And then? Well, that’s when things start to sputter a little bit.

Clubs go back into training (or on tour), and the focus shifts to assessing what they have. With the exception of players who are clearly told they’re on the trading block — normally the ones sometimes sent to train by themselves — most others slip back into preseason mode. Agents, clubs and intermediaries still work on deals, but the dynamic changes. You don’t have the same urgency, because you know there are another six weeks to go until the end of the transfer window.

Clubs (and especially coaches) love talking about how they want to get their business done early so they can have all the players available for preseason training. And sure, there’s a lot of value in that, especially when the manager is new or the playing system is changing or there are a bunch of newcomers. But what they like even more is getting the best possible players and the best possible deals. And to do that, you often have to go down to the wire.

That’s part of the reason why transfer activity picks up significantly in the second half of August, when the transfer countdown clock starts ticking toward the Sept. 1 deadline, after which you’re generally stuck — stuck with a player you don’t want, stuck in a place you don’t want to be or stuck with a hole in your finances or in your lineup.

The other part of the reason is much simpler.

Most leagues start in mid-August, and by that point, coaches and fans are fretting about what comes next. Clubs will have seen guys in training camp and will sometimes second-guess their choices. Fans (and media) will overreact to early poor performances. Players will suffer injuries. Clubs that have to go through the playoffs to qualify for European competitions might get knocked out and, suddenly, make their star player available. The screws get turned, events lead to action, actions leads to counteraction. And that domino effect we talked about earlier kicks in.

You didn’t want to let your promising young left back move because you were sure that with a year under his belt, he’d be even better and more valuable. But then Club X lost 3-0 at home on opening day and made you an offer you couldn’t refuse. So, you let him go for a big fee, and now you need to find a replacement because the fans are grumbling and so is your coach, whose job is on the line.

So if you’re hungry for deals and transfers, don’t fret. Just give it another couple of weeks and everyone will become more accommodating: players about what sort of moves they will accept, agents and intermediaries about what commission they demand, and clubs about how much they’re willing to spend or accept.

Urgency will drive the invisible hand.