With the European swing of races now complete, it’s time for the 2025 Formula 1 season to enter its final third. Sixteen races down, eight still to go, and the remaining flyaway rounds kick off with a visit to Baku, which can often be a chaotic weekend…
McLaren on the verge of the Constructors’ Championship
So much of the focus this season has been on the battle between the two McLaren drivers, as Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris duel it out for the Drivers’ Championship in what has become a two-driver race.
With both performing at such a high level – seven wins for Piastri, five for Norris, and seven 1-2s within that – the byproduct of such impressive point-scoring is McLaren have a significant lead over the chasing pack in the Constructors’ Championship. So significant, in fact, that they could wrap up the title this weekend in Baku.
A combined finish of first and second, or first and third, would be enough for McLaren to become champions regardless of what second-placed Ferrari do, while beyond that they just have to outscore the Scuderia by nine points. If they manage to do that, then as long as they don’t lose 12 points to Mercedes, or 33 points to Red Bull, then McLaren will be champions.
Should the title be secured this weekend, it would mark the earliest point in a season that it has been won, with seven rounds still remaining after the trip to Azerbaijan.
Can Red Bull repeat their Monza form?
Despite standing on the verge of winning a championship, McLaren were actually beaten for the first time in six races at Monza, and it wasn’t by their nearest title chasers.
Ferrari were victorious at their home race a year ago, but this time around it was Red Bull who took the win, with the result marking a significant turnaround in fortunes at Monza over the past 12 months.
From being over half a minute adrift of the race-winner in 2024, Max Verstappen beat the two McLarens by over 19 seconds this time around to secure his third win of the season. It was Verstappen’s first win since the other Italian round in Imola – a run of nine races.
While Verstappen appears too far back in the title fight to hold any realistic ambitions of his own, he could still be a major factor if Red Bull can replicate their Monza pace at any other venues. A new floor introduced last time out delivered a step forward, but both Verstappen and Red Bull pointed to setup choices as particularly significant.
Baku will provide a very different challenge and was another track that Verstappen struggled at a year ago as Red Bull’s form declined, so this weekend will give us further evidence of whether Monza was a one-off due to the unique track characteristics, or if McLaren could face more regular opposition from the defending champion.
Antonelli’s response after Wolff’s comments
Italian rookie Kimi Antonelli has enjoyed very strong support from Mercedes throughout his career so far, both during his junior years and since making the step up to race for the team alongside George Russell this year.
That support remains, but team principal Toto Wolff was the most critical we have heard him be towards Antonelli after the Italian Grand Prix, a race weekend that Wolff described as “underwhelming”.
Antonelli spun off during FP2 and then struggled at times to make progress through traffic during the race itself, picking up a penalty for forcing Alex Albon off track – described by the stewards as “erratic driving” – as he was classified ninth.
That was actually Antonelli’s best result of a difficult European part of the season, with his only other score coming courtesy of a tenth place in Hungary. So the return to tracks in different parts of the world could actually mark a change in form for the 19-year-old.
The last time he raced outside Europe, in Canada, he was on the podium for the first time, and the Italian has previously said he was putting too much pressure on himself to perform on European tracks he knows. Baku was a happy hunting ground in F2 for Antonelli last year as he secured a feature race podium, and offers the chance to reset after Monza.
Bearman at risk of a ban
Not for the first time this season, we’re entering a race weekend with a driver within just two penalty points of being banned for an event. And while Ollie Bearman should be reflecting positively on the anniversary of his racing debut for Haas, he is the driver who is most at risk.
It was actually a race ban for Kevin Magnussen – earned when he exceeded the 12 penalty point limit at Monza a year ago – that opened the door for Bearman to drive at Baku in 2024, and he duly took it by securing a point in tenth place. That made Bearman the first driver in F1 history to score points in his first two races for two different teams.
But this year, he arrives in a similar situation to Magnussen. A penalty earned at Monza – for causing a collision with Carlos Sainz – leaves Bearman with 10 penalty points on his licence. Two more would trigger an automatic one-race ban, a tightrope that Bearman will have to walk until after the Mexico City Grand Prix in four races’ time.
The penalty points system, and penalties in general, could become a talking point among the drivers this weekend, after Williams managed to successfully overturn Sainz’s penalty regarding his collision with Liam Lawson in Zandvoort. The team said the decision to request a right of review was “important for us to understand how to go racing in future”, and the stewards agreed new footage showed it was a racing incident, leading to the rescinding of penalty points Sainz was given.
A unique venue with a chance of chaos
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix has become a bit of a fan favourite during its relatively short time on the Formula 1 calendar, with its eight editions so far generally taking on one of two guises. There have been a few largely incident free runs to the flag, or there have been some extremely dramatic races.
Drivers appeared to play it safe for the inaugural race in Baku back in 2016, expecting to bank a good result if they stayed out of trouble based on extremely chaotic support races. When that led to little in the way of incidents, the approach changed a year later for what was perhaps the most chaotic race of the lot in 2017.
There was plenty of drama in 2021, too, while last year’s race also provided brilliant action courtesy of a thrilling fight for the win between Oscar Piastri and Charles Leclerc, and a last-lap collision between Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez.
Baku’s extremely tight and twisty castle section, paired with an extremely long flat-out run at the end of the lap, creates a unique challenge of a high speed street circuit with plenty of overtaking potential, while also punishing mistakes.
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