Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Detroit Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson smacked 31 home runs during the 2023 season, but last season, the only Tiger to hit more than 18 blasts was OF Riley Greene, with 24. Torkelson is the lone Tiger to have reached 30 home runs since the 2017 campaign. The Tigers still rank among the most losing franchises over the past eight seasons, but things are different now. They enter Thursday with baseball’s best record, and are tied for eighth in home runs.
Don’t be surprised… if three Tigers reach 30 home runs this season
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Only one time in Detroit’s illustrious history have a trio of players hit 30 home runs in the same season — in 1992, with Cecil Fielder, Rob Deer and Mickey Tettleton. This season’s Tigers seem ready to duplicate that achievement with Torkelson, Greene and OF Kerry Carpenter each wading into double digits prior to the end of May. This is new for the Tigers. Last year’s club, which made the playoffs with 86 wins, hit only 162 total home runs, 24th in MLB. Greene and the underrated OF/3B Matt Vierling were the lone Tigers among the top-100 hitters in points leagues.
This year’s club is performing better, with Torkelson and Greene among the top-50 fantasy producers. Carpenter and new 2B Gleyber Torres are not far behind. Torkelson is a new man with a bulging walk rate and higher launch angle. He may never win a batting title, but he has certainly made plate adjustments. Budding superstar Greene is healthy and with a much healthier Barrel rate. Carpenter was always a 30-HR threat who regularly torched right-handed pitching. Staying on the field was a problem. The Tigers hit home runs, keep runs off the board and are well managed. Other than the Javier Baez resurrection (sorry, but you should run away), this all seems legitimate.
Don’t be surprised… if Arizona Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo leads the team in fantasy points
The Diamondbacks enter Thursday ranked fifth overall in runs scored. OF Corbin Carroll and 3B Eugenio Suarez are among the league’s HR leaders, Carroll and 2B Ketel Marte are on the OPS leaderboard and 1B Josh Naylor is in the top five at his position in fantasy points. Then there is Perdomo, long believed to be tasked with handling shortstop only until prospect Jordan Lawlar was ready. The Diamondbacks surprised many by presenting Perdomo a long-term contract extension in February. They knew what they were doing.
Perdomo debuted in 2021 and he entered this season hitting .235 and slugging .330, far below-average offensively for any position. Sure, he made the 2023 NL All-Star team, hitting .271 (.787 OPS) prior to the break, but then he hit .214 (.619 OPS) the rest of the way. Perhaps Perdomo, who missed more than two months of last season due to a knee injury, falters again in the latter stages of 2025, but he currently looks like a star. Perdomo is slashing .306/.402/.488. He is 11-for-11 in stolen bases. Just five hitters have more fantasy points. Only nine hitters are better on the ESPN Player Rater.
As a result, it really is not so bold to predict that Perdomo paces the Diamondbacks (and perhaps even all MLB shortstops, as he is currently doing) in fantasy points. This isn’t about BABIP. This is mainly about plate discipline, as Perdomo’s walk rate is way up to 15%, and his strikeout rate has fallen for the third consecutive season, to among the league’s best at 10.6%. We generally recommend hitters with better hard-hit rates and exit velocity figures, but Perdomo hits baseballs hard enough (far better than Luis Arraez, for example). Not everyone has to hit for big power. Perdomo is proving his worth in other ways.
Don’t be surprised… if Atlanta Braves RHP AJ Smith-Shawver wins top NL rookie honors
Smith-Shawver enters his Thursday outing in Washington with a 2.33 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched. He made just one MLB start last season, but had 20 for Triple-A Gwinnett, where he struggled to avoid home runs and walks. That’s a rough combination for a pitcher. The Braves weren’t sure about Smith-Shawver, a seventh-round selection in the 2021 draft, but certainly he boasts more upside than RHP Bryce Elder and swingman RHP Grant Holmes. Once they gave him a rotation spot, he has flourished.
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Smith-Shawver has permitted just one earned run over his past three outings, covering 19 2/3 innings, although the eight walks (only eight hits allowed, though) in that span offers some concern. Smith-Shawver probably won’t keep an ERA this great for long, but something in the range of 3.50 makes more sense. Still, that may be enough to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. After all, look at what the bigger (though not longer) names are up to.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Roki Sasaki, always overrated in drafts, was the leading candidate for the award. However, a shoulder injury has him sidelined indefinitely. Sasaki struggled with his control over eight outings, registering just one quality start. It’s tough to succeed with 22 walks versus 24 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Washington Nationals OF Dylan Crews is hitting a mere .196 with a 27.7% strikeout rate. Plus, he’s currently on the IL due to an oblique strain.
Chicago Cubs IF Matt Shaw is hitting only .217, although he’s had a pair of multiple-hit games since his recent recall from Triple-A Iowa. Arizona’s Lawlar is also back in the majors, but hitless in 10 at-bats with seven strikeouts. Smith-Shawver and his battery-mate Drake Baldwin are now the current ESPN BET odds leaders for NL Rookie of the Year.
Don’t be surprised… if Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes fails to win 10 games this season
Skenes was the No. 3 starting pitcher in ESPN average live drafts this season — No. 4 if you include Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani, which you shouldn’t because he didn’t pitch last season and may not in 2025 — and he has been worth it. Skenes brings his 2.44 ERA and 0.94 WHIP into his next outing, this weekend against the Milwaukee Brewers. We can quibble with Skenes having struck out only one batter per inning in 2025 (his K rate is way down in Year 2), but the biggest reason he may not finish as a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher? His team is offensively pathetic.
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Don’t fault Skenes, who is currently 3-5. On Sunday, in the finale of a three-game set with the cross-state rivals in Philadelphia (Rivals? LOL! That’s not been true since the 70s.) Skenes fanned nine Phillies over eight great innings, permitting only three singles. Two of them came consecutively, however, and a groundout produced the lone run in a 1-0 loss. Skenes delivered his first career complete game. He leads the terrible Pirates in WAR and is among the top-10 pitchers in the metric. He also boasts fewer wins than 58 pitchers, more than 10 of those being primarily relievers.
These Pirates average a sad 2.92 runs per game (worst in baseball) and enter Thursday having failed to score more than four runs in any game for more than a month. It isn’t bad luck or for injury reasons, either. This is a brutal offense. We love Skenes in fantasy, but wins do matter. They may matter more in roto/categories leagues than in traditional points formats, but they matter. Fantasy managers want to trade for aces like Skenes, not trade them away, but wins will be a challenge, and lesser pitchers on better teams (Carlos Rodon, Jesus Luzardo, Joe Ryan, Bryan Woo, Robbie Ray among them) may outscore him in fantasy points. It’s something to consider in redraft formats.
