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Fantasy baseball news or noise: Breakout season on tap for Lawlar?

January 16, 2026
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Eric KarabellJan 15, 2026, 11:44 AM ET

CloseEric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame and author of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”.

It’s January and the fantasy baseball offseason is, pardon the pun, in full swing. Right now, most sports fans are devoting the majority of their attention to the NFL, NBA and NHL, where the games (both real and fantasy) take center stage — and understandably so.

Perhaps you’re hearing about the latest baseball buzz only in passing, if at all. That’s perfectly fine. We’re paying attention to what’s going on and are here to let you know about the top stories that might have gone under your radar. Are they something you need to file away for draft day or are they likely to have little impact when all is said and done?

Read on and find out whether these breaking developments are truly news or if they’re just noise.

More baseball content: Hot Stove tracker | 2026 points league rankings

Jan. 15: Arizona Diamondbacks with new plan for Jordan Lawlar

Arizona’s acquisition of future Hall of Fame 3B Nolan Arenado might seem to bury longtime infield prospect Lawlar, but fantasy managers should not run away. It might feel like a year ago, when the Diamondbacks signed SS Geraldo Perdomo to a long-term contract, despite Perdomo’s middling production, pushing Lawlar off shortstop. Then Perdomo delivered a monster season, and he was arguably a fantasy MVP, considering draft-day investment. Perhaps Arenado bounces back, too.

The Diamondbacks intend to use Lawlar, 23, in the outfield, where there is opportunity alongside star Corbin Carroll. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. underachieved in his 546 plate appearances as the regular left fielder. He might miss at least the first half of the season recovering from an ACL tear in his knee. Jake McCarthy was traded to the Colorado Rockies. Alek Thomas produced a .659 OPS. Lawlar hit .313/.403/.564 at Triple-A Reno. Ignore his big-league numbers in brief playing time. Lawlar will have an opportunity to star.

Fantasy impact: News. Lawlar is going to break out.

Jan. 15: San Diego Padres announce no innings cap for RHP Joe Musgrove

Musgrove has certainly been a relevant fantasy option for much of his career, especially over four seasons with the Padres (3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.4 K/9). He missed the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery late in 2024, but the good news is that the organization expects him to be fully ready for spring training — and there will be no limitations on his volume this season. Musgrove has reached 181 innings twice with the Padres, though that last happened in 2022. Perhaps we cannot rely on him for 30 starts, but there is definite sleeper potential here.

Fantasy impact: Potential news, if he can stay healthy.

Jan. 13: Kansas City Royals move their outfield fences in!

What would slightly shallower fences at Kauffman Stadium mean for the power numbers of Royals batters and their opponents? Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

Kauffman Stadium has always been known as a pitcher’s ballpark, but perhaps things will change in 2026. The Royals announced they will move the majority of their outfield fence in by 10 feet, which Jeff Passan wrote would “drastically [change] the offensive environment of a notoriously bad stadium for home run hitting into one the team hopes will play as major-league average.” Well, good for them and, obviously, to some degree this move will have relevance for hitting numbers and fantasy managers.

Of course, for every Jonathan India investor hoping he hits 20 home runs, a Cole Ragans investor might not be pleased. No American League team hit fewer home runs than the 2025 Royals, though, to be fair, this isn’t a lineup loaded with Aaron Judge types. Three Royals hit double-digit home runs at home in 2025 (Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez). For comparison, eight Yankees did this in 2025. The Yankees hit 140 home runs in home games. The Royals hit 70.

In theory, the Royals should hit a few more in 2026, but it is hard to say this greatly adjusts their fantasy value or preseason rankings. Jac Caglianone, like Pasquantino, Witt and Perez, boasts huge power. Moving in the fences doesn’t aid his contact rate. No, India isn’t likely to double his home run rate.

Fantasy impact: Consider this information for drafting and keeper purposes, but do not overrate it.

Jan. 8: David Fry can throw again!

Keep an eye on David Fry as the Guardians look to use him as more than just a DH in 2026. Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

Some might remember Fry hitting .263 with 14 home runs over 122 games for the Cleveland Guardians in 2024. Those numbers might not seem like much, but since Fry was catcher-eligible at the time, he finished just outside the top 10 at the position in fantasy scoring. Fry played 20 games that season at catcher, first base and in the outfield, though most would agree his best position is “hitter.” Fantasy managers like hitters, and Fry posted a .996 OPS that season against left-handed pitching. He was valuable as a second catcher in deeper leagues and certainly in daily formats.

Fry would probably agree that it’s best to forget about his 2025 season. Don’t even look. It didn’t start until June, as he recovered from offseason elbow surgery, and he played nary a game in the field because he could not throw. The Guardians say that Fry, now recovered from nasal surgeries after a ball hit his face during an errant bunt attempt in September, will play the field in 2026. Fry starts the year eligible solely at DH, but once he adds catcher eligibility again, think about him. We know he can hit lefties, and the Guardians figure to utilize him quite a bit — and at numerous positions.

Fantasy impact: In-season news for deeper formats

Jan. 8: Brice Matthews to extend his versatility to outfield

Houston’s versatile Brice Matthews may add even more positions to his résumé. Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

Matthews, an intriguing athlete who has proved himself steady at second base, shortstop and third base, made his MLB debut for the Houston Astros last July. He batted 47 times overall in the majors, hitting four home runs, but also striking out 20 times. OK, so his profile isn’t a guarantee for future success, but Matthews — a first-round pick in the 2023 amateur draft — hit 17 home runs and stole 41 bases at Triple-A Sugar Land last season. Astros GM Dana Brown said Matthews will also play some outfield in 2026. If he can make more contact and secure a regular role, he can make fantasy managers happy.

The Astros seem set in the infield with veterans Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Carlos Correa at second base, shortstop and third base, and we saw how poorly Altuve’s attempt to play left field went. The outfield is far from settled, unless the Astros aren’t done adding this offseason. Matthews played some center field for the Space Cowboys at Triple-A and, with his raw power and electric speed, he would become an instant deep-league fantasy sleeper if the Astros could use him there this season. Watch this story in spring training. Matthews might not be recognized as one of baseball’s top prospects, but opportunity is everything. He might well earn his.

Fantasy impact: Potentially relevant news, if he gets the chance



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