March Madness a stage for 3-way race for NBA draft's No. 1 pick

The debate over which player is taken first overall in this year’s NBA draft has to include Duke freshman Cameron Boozer, the clubhouse leader for national player of the year.

With his double-double consistency in leading the Blue Devils to the top of the USA TODAY Sports Men’s College Basketball Poll, Boozer has joined a pair of fellow freshmen who have paced the conversation since the summer in Kansas guard Darryn Peterson and Brigham Young forward AJ Dybantsa.

At various points this season, each of these three contenders has shown explosive bursts of production that paint him as the top player in a draft class that’s deep enough to have triggered tanking efforts among the worst teams in the league — and in turn made efforts to limit or prevent tanking a major theme for the NBA.

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“It’s an extremely strong draft class,” said Ben Pfeifer, an independent draft analyst. “And it starts at the top with, I think, three MVP-level, No. 1-pick-caliber guys in Peterson, Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer. But then I think even as you go down there is a ton of quality depth. I think there are more guys that could reasonably go in the lottery than lottery spots available and more first-round-quality players than first-round spots.”

In this month’s NCAA tournament, front offices and talent evaluators will be keeping close tabs on Boozer, Dybantsa and Peterson as they attempt to answer one of the most intriguing questions of the 2025-26 season: Who goes No. 1?

Cameron Boozer’s consistency propels Duke

Cameron Boozer has led top-ranked Duke to ACC regular season and tournament titles and a No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Following in the footsteps of former Duke star Cooper Flagg, who had a memorable one-year run under coach Jon Scheyer and is now putting together a transcendent rookie season for the Dallas Mavericks, Boozer is averaging 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game for the top-ranked Blue Devils.

His consistency can’t be ignored: Boozer has scored in double figures in every game, has made at least half of his attempts in all but four games since early January and has played at least 31 minutes in every ACC game except for blowouts of Syracuse and Notre Dame.

“He’s been the most productive of all the freshmen and the most consistent at a high level,” said ESPN analyst Jay Bilas. “A lot of these guys are winners, but he’s got this winning gene that you don’t see very often.”

The son of former Duke forward and NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, the freshman has excelled despite playing alongside a weaker supporting cast than the group that joined Flagg a season ago; two of Flagg’s teammates, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach, were taken No. 4 and No. 10 overall in last June’s draft, respectively.

In comparison, this year’s team has another pair of potential first-round selections in guard Isaiah Evans and center Patrick Ngongba II, though neither is currently predicted to be a lottery pick.

“I definitely don’t think any of his teammates are as good as Kon Knueppel or Maluach were last year,” Pfeifer said, adding Ngongba and Evans are both “mid-first round to potentially late-lottery-level players.”

Still, whether Boozer is taken No. 1 depends in large part on which team is drafting first and that team’s personnel needs, and whether teams see a difference-making, franchise-shaping talent in the 6-9 forward. For example, the Indiana Pacers could choose Boozer should they land the first pick given next year’s expected return of guard Tyrese Haliburton.

“He’s a force,” Scheyer said of Boozer following Duke’s Feb. 28 win against Virginia. “No question about it. He sets a great tone for us with his rebounding and rim attacks.”

Darryn Peterson’s performance, availability spark acclaim, concern

Darryn Peterson has a tantalizing skill set and ability to score at all three levels.

There is no question Peterson can play at an absurdly high level.

The five-star recruit is averaging 19.8 points per game for No. 17 Kansas while making 44.2% of his shots from the field and 38.4% from 3-point range. He’s cracked the 20-point mark 11 times, led by a season-high 32 points in an overtime win against TCU in early January.

Along the way, his NBA-ready skill set and shot creation paints Peterson as a plug-and-play prospect with the potential to develop into an elite scorer and franchise cornerstone.

The question is whether Peterson will play — and that question has so far defined the Jayhawks’ season.

A herky-jerky year has seen Peterson miss games with a hamstring injury, an ankle injury and due to illness. He’s also left games with cramping issues, including during a win against Oklahoma State on Feb. 18 that saw Peterson check himself out of action three minutes into the second half.

By that point, Peterson had scored 23 points on 7-of-10 shooting in just 18 minutes of action.

“It’s a concern,” Kansas coach Bill Self said postgame. “I thought we were past it, but obviously we’re not. It’s certainly a concern.”

Since that game, Peterson is averaging 31.6 minutes a game, so whatever message was sent was received.

Another issue has been Peterson’s lackluster play against the top opponents on the Jayhawks’ schedule. In four games against the best teams in the Big 12 — a loss to Arizona, a split with Houston and a loss to Iowa State — Peterson averaged 15.5 points while shooting 19-of-56 from the field and 9-of 26 from deep.

With Boozer, there may be a concern that his long-term NBA impact won’t match the expectations heaped on the No. 1 pick, especially in a draft class with this much star power. But Peterson’s candidacy for the top pick comes with a different sort of risk: Does he have the makeup to stand up to the hype and pressure that come with going No. 1 overall?

“I’m not concerned about it unless something is revealed that’s factual that gives me concern,” said Bilas. “I know him to be a competitor in talking to everybody that’s dealt with him, so I’m not worried about it. The talent there is undeniable, and there’d have to be a red flag you can see from 50 miles away to keep you from a talent like that.”

AJ Dybantsa does it all for BYU

AJ Dybantsa led the nation in scoring at a little over 25 points per game.

Meanwhile, Dybantsa has been a dynamic and consistent scorer for a BYU team that started the season 17-2, but has stumbled lately as the Cougars deal with injuries.

His commitment to BYU as a five-star prospect from Brockton, Massachusetts, was seen as emblematic of the NIL era. After reaching last year’s Sweet 16 before falling to Alabama, the Cougars were expected to take a step forward by adding Dybantsa into a mix that included holdovers such as guard Richie Saunders and fellow newcomer Robert Wright III, a Baylor transfer.

The question of whether the Cougars parlay this roster into a deeper postseason run will be answered soon. But Dybantsa has met and even exceeded expectations as the nation’s top scorer and one of the most well-rounded wings in the Power Five.

He’s scored at least 20 points in 13 games in a row, and averaged 31 points in the Cougars’ three Big 12 tournament games. Dybantsa poured in a season-high 43 points in a 91-78 win against rival Utah on Jan. 24.

“He’s a truly absurd scorer,” Pfeifer said. Dybantsa has “some of the best footwork you’re ever going to see from a player this age,” he added.

“Truly absurd stuff that he can do with pivots and step-throughs and just creative moves that you very rarely see players like him pulling out on a basketball court.”

Overall, he’s averaging 25.3 points per game, 6.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game while making 51.3% of his attempts. Dybantsa has already become just the 20th freshman since 2000 to score at least 700 points and is just the third freshman to lead the country in scoring since the NCAA began officially tracking statistics in the late 1940s.

“I don’t think it’s hype with AJ Dybantsa,” Bilas said. “I think it’s factual. Like, when you saw him in high school, you knew: This guy is the real deal. And he’s done nothing but elevate judgment on that. So whatever expectation he had as a freshman, I think by all measure he’s exceeded it. It’s like he’s made in a lab for the NBA. He’s got size and crazy length and a skill set that is transferrable to the league right now.”

NBA mock draft: Who goes No. 1?

In the latest mock draft from For The Win, AJ Dybantsa is projected to go No. 1 to the Indiana Pacers, followed by Darryn Peterson to the Washington Wizards at No. 2 and Cameron Boozer to the Sacramento Kings at No. 3.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA draft No. 1 pick a 3-way race between Dybantsa, Boozer, Peterson

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