Guardians had (almost) no chance to win the AL Central … until they did

In early September, the Cleveland Guardians were such long shots to overtake the front-running Detroit Tigers in the American League Central that sportsbooks took the odds to win the division off the board.

One month later, the Guardians are AL Central champs, after an odds-defying run that earned them home-field advantage in their wild-card series against the Tigers.

On Sept. 1, Detroit owned a 10.5-game lead over the Guardians and was listed at -20,000 to win their division at ESPN BET, meaning a bettor would have to risk $20,000 on Detroit to win just $100. A spokesperson for ESPN BET said the sportsbook did take “a few bets” on the Tigers at that price but declined to provide specifics. The Guardians were 80-1 to win the division entering September.

Editor’s Picks

Detroit promptly went on a downward spiral, going 7-17, the worst final month of a season by a playoff team since the World Series began in 1903, according to ESPN Research. Cleveland capitalized, overtaking the Tigers in the final week of the regular season and clinching the division title Sunday when Detroit lost to the Boston Red Sox and the Guardians beat the Texas Rangers.

It was an improbable turnaround. On July 28, the Guardians were as long as 281-1 to win the division at Circa Sports. The sportsbook took its division odds off the board on Sept. 4 and didn’t put them back up until nearly two weeks later.

“I typically stop offering odds to win a division if the odds for the favorite are north of -10000, which the Tigers were for a while,” Circa Sports sportsbook director Chris Bennett told ESPN. “People don’t like to bet into those implied probabilities.”

Kevin Higgins, a 33-year-old sports bettor from Brook Park, Ohio, didn’t wait until September to back the Guardians. He took his position on Cleveland in July, when few thought the Guardians were headed anywhere but home after September.

Postseason Baseball Challenge

Create MLB postseason brackets for FREE! $50K in prizes. Make Your Picks

Before placing a series of bets on Cleveland, Higgins studied the Guardians’ schedule and noted that, as of July 8, they had played against more teams that were above .500 than any other team in the AL. He also noticed their schedule after the All-Star Break began with series against a string of bottom-dwellers such as the Athletics Athletics, Baltimore Orioles and Colorado Rockies. At that point, he placed around $85 in bets, some through promotional credits, on the Guardians to win the AL Central for a chance at $5,210.

“On Monday, I cashed it out for $1,277 to guarantee myself a good win no matter what happened in the series versus Detroit,” Higgins said. “I felt like I was setting myself up for a win-win — especially with my wife and I expecting our first baby to be born October 6th. It was a good idea to make sure of some profit.”

The Guardians host the Tigers on Tuesday in Game 1 of their wild-card series. Detroit is a slight favorite over Cleveland to win the series.