Buster Olney
Jesse Rogers
Jesse Rogers
ESPN Staff Writer
Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
The slow trickle of the MLB offseason has continued as the calendar flips to 2026.
Coming out of the holidays, 13 of Kiley McDaniel’s top 25 free agents going into the winter remain unsigned and rumors continue to swirl about the stars who have come up in trade discussions most so far this offseason.
What’s the latest on top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger and Bo Bichette? Will All-Stars Ketel Marte or Tarik Skubal be dealt in the coming weeks? And which other players are drawing the most industry buzz?
Here is the latest that ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers are hearing this hot stove season.
What are you hearing about the big four remaining free agent hitters?
Olney: We have officially reached that point in the winter in which some sort of transaction deadline would be useful to move things along — but that’ll probably never happen. So for now, the same industry dynamic remains in place for January: Agents (and the players they represent) have an expectation about what value can be extracted in the current market, and teams have largely determined what prices they are comfortable with paying. Based on conversations with industry sources, this is a standoff that exists for Tucker, Bregman, Bichette and Bellinger.
Maybe the best working example of this is Bellinger: He is coming off an excellent season and the New York Yankees want to retain him, but there is apparently a sizable gap between what his side wants and what the team is willing to pay. Bellinger made $27.5 million last season and it’s hard to imagine his representative, Scott Boras, settling for a deal that averages less than that.
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The Boston Red Sox want Bregman and have signaled a willingness to pay him big money — perhaps something in the range of what the Tigers offered him last spring, a six-year, $171.5 million deal. A lot of teams are interested in Bichette, but there seems to be a wide variation in what they’re willing to pay a player who is viewed by many evaluators as a future second baseman, rather than a shortstop.
Some agents believe that the Toronto Blue Jays are bound to sign one of the big names still available, based on their aggressive posture; if Tucker prefers the most money possible in a long-term deal, the Jays could be the best option. Agents believe the Los Angeles Dodgers are hovering in the market, waiting for either Tucker or Bichette to fall to them on a shorter-term deal with a high average annual value closer to their price range, which is what happened with Freddie Freeman.
Rogers: There was a feeling among some in the industry that Bregman was down to Toronto and Arizona and when Kazuma Okamoto signed with the Blue Jays, it would push Bregman to the Diamondbacks. Those same people also believed the Red Sox would indeed hang around until the end, seeing how Bregman’s market would develop. Many believe the two sides — Boston and Bregman — need each other, given the leadership and production he supplied for the Red Sox last season. But free agents always want more than one serious suitor, so one executive put it this way: “If it was down to Toronto and Arizona before, maybe it’s now Boston or Arizona.”
In the same way that the Red Sox and Bregman might need each other most, the same could be said of Bellinger and the Yankees in a similar scenario: Testing the market while his old team lurks in the background. Expect to see the Yankees’ version of a full-court press for him though they’ve balanced their lineup from the left side of the plate better in recent years. Where they were more desperate in the past for that balance, they may not be in need of it as much. Having said that, as a rival put it: “Bellinger would still be their best left-handed hitter if he returns.”
Tucker has both short- and long-term options, according to sources familiar with the situation, and Toronto is not out of the mix despite signing Okamoto last week. Tucker’s age (28) and ability to slug while mastering the strike zone highlight what makes him special as a hitter. Over the course of the past two seasons, Juan Soto and Tucker are the only hitters with a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio while compiling a slugging percentage above .500.
Which other free agents hitters come up frequently in your conversations?
Olney: Luis Arraez continues to be one of the more interesting free agent options. Because of his unusual set of skills — he makes contact better than anyone — he led the NL in hits last season and is a three-time batting champion, but the perception of many evaluators is that: 1. He doesn’t really add anything on defense; 2. He doesn’t add anything in his baserunning; and 3. He doesn’t excel in on-base percentage (.327 last season) or power (.392). Because of all this, Arraez needs a front office or a veteran manager with old-school roots to advocate for adding him.
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And Miguel Andujar is going to find a home, maybe partly because Rob Refsnyder helped to define the market for right-handed hitters who mash lefties, with his one-year, $6.3 million deal with the Mariners. Last season, Andujar blistered left-handers for a .389/.409/.578 and wasn’t bad against right-handers, either: .290/.331/.429. Andujar also has a reputation for being a great clubhouse guy; both the A’s and Reds spoke very highly of their experience with him. But like Arraez, Andujar is viewed as someone who doesn’t have a landing spot on the field.
Rogers: The free agent third basemen are waiting for Bregman to sign. Okamoto’s signing was a data point, and Eugenio Suarez should finally get some traction, as will Yoan Moncada eventually. Suarez liked his time in Cincinnati, though Pittsburgh is still looking for hitters among the NL Central teams in need of infield help. Suarez might replace Ke’Bryan Hayes there (after he went to Cincy in a trade with the Pirates last season).
What does Tatsuya Imai’s deal with the Astros mean for the top of the free agent starting pitcher market?
Olney: I don’t think it has any impact, other than to take Houston off the list of teams seeking high-end starting pitching. In the end, the dollar projections for Imai weren’t close to what team evaluators believed was possible for him — and Imai’s deal was a bet on himself, with some financial protection built in if he struggles or is hurt. If Imai has a big year in 2026, he could opt out of his deal and be back on the market next fall — or in the spring of 2027, after the labor situation is settled.
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Rogers: Imai’s signing won’t have much of an impact on others considering that the numbers are simply in line for a good starting pitcher rather than being any sort of market-setting contract. It’s clear (and not that dissimilar to Munetaka Murakami’s deal with the Chicago White Sox) that Imai’s contract with opt-outs is a bit of a “prove it” deal. Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez, for example, have already proved their worth and are looking for some form of security. Imai is in a different category.
Which other free agent pitchers are coming up most in your recent conversations?
Olney: Suarez and Valdez, for sure. With the Mets still needing help in their rotation, it seems inevitable they’ll land one of these two — and Suarez makes a lot of sense, given his calm mound presence and experience pitching in a big market for all of those years in Philadelphia.
Rogers: When executives state every offseason is different, there’s no better example of that than in how this year’s pitching market has played out. Relievers came off the board early while starters are still waiting their turn.
That should finally change this month as names such as Zac Gallen, Zack Littell and Lucas Giolito are starting to come up more and more. The Mets, Cubs, A’s, Braves and perhaps the Yankees and Angels are viewed among teams that could use another starter. But Suarez and Valdez should go first. In general, it’s been a slow developing market and they are examples of that.
Which trade talks have the most traction coming out of the holidays?
Olney: As Diamondbacks exec Mike Hazen said the other day, he’s not going to wait much longer for a team to step up and make a suitable offer for All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte — the D-Backs, like every other team, have to start preparing for the start of spring training. Hazen’s words have been read in the industry as a call for a last round of offers, and if the Diamondbacks don’t see a proposal they like — after two months of conversations, they’ll be surprised if someone makes a push — they intend to pull Marte off the trade market.
The same is true with Tarik Skubal and the Tigers: Detroit has set a very high price tag on the lefty, and the expectation within the organization is that Skubal will be in their camp at the outset of spring training.
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Some rival clubs still believe that Washington Nationals starter Mackenzie Gore is going to move before mid-February. Other teams believe Brandon Donovan is going to be dealt by the St. Louis Cardinals — and it’ll be really interesting to see if St. Louis eventually just opts to release Nolan Arenado, given the decline in his performance the past couple of years, the saturation of the corner-infield market and the fact that the Cards are in a rebuild mode.
Rogers: I echo what Buster is hearing on Donovan while Arenado’s market is “moving slow” according to a source.
Meanwhile, one executive opined the Milwaukee Brewers should have more offers for Freddy Peralta than the Tigers do for Skubal — even though the latter is a two-time Cy Young winner. Yes, there is a talent gap but perhaps not enough to offset the salary difference between the two for 2026 and the fact that either could be signed to a one-year deal. Teams simply love that the Brewers ace is owed just $8 million next season, which means Milwaukee should do well in terms of return if Peralta is traded.
And its status quo for White Sox center fielder Luis Robert as there is no current traction for a trade on that front. The same can’t be said of Marlins starter Edward Cabrera as the smoke around him is real. Whether a deal gets done remains to be seen.
What else are you hearing as the hot stove heats back up for January?
Olney: A lot of concern for the third and fourth tiers of free agents. There are more than four dozen unsigned relievers and so many established hitters looking for their next deals, from Marcell Ozuna to Hunter Renfroe. And of course, we’ll be tracking what comes next for a couple of future Hall of Famers — Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Rogers: While Scherzer received plenty of positive attention last postseason, the finish to Verlander’s season flew under the radar. Teams have taken some notice of the soon-to-be 43-year-old’s second half in which he ranked in the top 10 in MLB in starts, IP, ERA, fWAR and several other categories beginning with his second start after the All-Star break. An early pectoral injury didn’t stop him from finishing strong. One team suggested taking a judicious approach like the Dodgers did with Blake Snell or even the Blue Jays with Scherzer. If you don’t need him for 29 starts — that’s how many he made last year — then Verlander could be even better for a contender.
