World Baseball Classic tiebreaker scenarios

After a stunning 8-6 upset loss to Italy in World Baseball Classic pool play, Team USA’s knockout stage fate now rests on the result of Wednesday’s Italy-Mexico game.

Here are the tiebreaker scenarios that will determine if the star-studded U.S. squad moves on to the quarterfinals or is sent home in an all-time shocker.

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How Team USA can advance in WBC

Team USA moves on if …

Italy beats Mexico: Italy would win the pool at 4-0 and Team USA would finish second at 3-1 (ahead of Mexico’s 2-2 mark).

If Mexico beats Italy and Mexico scores five or more runs in nine innings. All thee teams would finish 3-1, Mexico and Team USA would then advance on tiebreaker.

Team USA is eliminated if …

How WBC tiebreaker scenarios work

Given the round-robin format of the WBC opening round, ties are to be expected in pool play. This is how the teams moving on are decided.

Two-team tiebreaker

Three-team tiebreaker

While a two-team tiebreaker scenario is very straightforward, it gets decidedly more complicated when three teams finish with the same record, with the tiebreaker decided in this order:

Lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed by defensive outs recorded in games between teams that are tied

Lowest quotient of fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied

Highest batting average in games between the teams that are tied

Drawing of lots

Heading into Wednesday’s Pool B finale, this is how the three teams vying to move on in stack up in runs allowed per defensive out (and a lower quotient is better).

Team USA: 11 runs allowed, 54 defensive outs. 0.2037 quotient

Mexico: Five runs allowed, 24 defensive outs. 0.2083 quotient

Italy: Six runs allowed, 27 defensive outs. 0.2222 quotient