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Predicting White Sox’s loss total, MLB’s worst 2025 teams

March 21, 2025
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Mar 21, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

Last time we saw the Chicago White Sox, they were putting the finishing touches on an MLB record 121-loss 2024 season. Since then, they have traded away their best player — ace Garrett Crochet — in a winter move and added, well, not a whole lot in free agency.

Does that mean Chicago could be just as bad in 2025? Which veterans could be traded away this season? And could anyone else in the majors finish with a worse record than the White Sox? ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield weigh in.

How does the White Sox roster entering Opening Day compare to last season?

Olney: The first chapter of the rebuild is behind them, and the White Sox have parted ways with a bunch of veterans they had in 2024 — from the trades of veterans like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech and Crochet to the departure of free agents like Yoan Moncada. Naturally, then, their roster is largely filled with young and unproven players. The White Sox will be open to more deals for the experienced players they still have, like Luis Robert Jr., because those guys probably won’t be around when the team becomes competitively relevant again. The White Sox hit rock bottom last year, and now they start what is likely to be a long, slow climb.

Rogers: Younger and less experienced — especially on the mound, where 25 year-old Sean Burke got the Opening Day nod. Add Jonathan Cannon (24), Davis Martin (113 career IP) and the injured Drew Thorpe to the mix, and the Sox won’t be starting anyone with any name recognition outside of veteran Martin Perez.

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The lineup can’t be worse to start the season than last year’s edition — but it could be just as bad, as it features only three players with any real experience: Andrew Vaughn, Andrew Benintendi and Robert. Top prospect, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was just sent down to the minors so his debut will be delayed. But newcomer Mike Tauchman will provide professional at-bats and perhaps a full season of Miguel Vargas will pay off. The roster is different but remains to be seen if it’s better in any way.

Schoenfield: The 2024 team had more known names — Robert, Moncada, Jimenez, Benintendi, Paul DeJong and Martin Maldonado were all in the Opening Day starting lineup, for example. But that group was collectively awful, combining for negative WAR.

What the 2024 White Sox did have, which we didn’t know on Opening Day, was two excellent starting pitchers in Erick Fedde and Crochet, although Fedde was dealt to the Cardinals at the trade deadline. And now Crochet is gone as well. So, on paper, you could argue the 2025 White Sox look just as bad as last season.

How many more — or fewer — games will the White Sox win this season than they did last season?

Olney: You would think that the trade of one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the league would impact their bottom line of wins and losses, but it wasn’t exactly like they tore it up on the days that he pitched — they went 9-23 in the 32 games Crochet started last year. The other four teams in the division are all improved and competing for playoff spots, which won’t help the White Sox, but you’d think that the new season will help the day-to-day culture. Last year, there was so much negativity around the team because of the early losing, questions about when manager Pedro Grifol might lose his job and the impending trades. That’s behind them now, and there is almost always a refresh under a new skipper — Will Venable, in this case. So I think they’ll win more games, but not many. I’d put them at 45-117.

Rogers: I think the Sox will get off to a bad start. New manager Will Venable doesn’t have much to work with in the bullpen while Benintendi has been slowed by a hand injury. But unlike last year when they tanked coming out of All-Star break, expect the White Sox to win more games in the second half. Montgomery’s debut will be a jolt, as will the potential of seeing top picks Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz on the mound for Chicago at some point. Even the current rotation will be better later in the season. The team will just look better as the season goes along. The result will be a 54-108 record.

David Schoenfield: Only the 1962-63 Mets have lost 110 games in consecutive seasons, so it’s really hard to be this awful two seasons in a row (although the Orioles lost 115 and then 108 in 2018-19). The White Sox will improve: Let’s go with 56-106.

Who will be the best player on their team this season?

MLB prospect rankings for 2025

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Olney: No doubt about it: Robert. Other teams see him as a player with value when he’s healthy. Maybe the most important question for Chicago’s big-league team this year will be how many games Robert plays leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, because the more he plays, the more he’ll produce — and the higher his value is. There will be teams interested in trading for him, but what they’ll be willing to pay will be directly tied to whether he stays on the field and if he hits.

Rogers: If it’s not Robert then he’s injured again, not as good as we thought or wearing a different uniform after a trade. He’s easily their best talent. Outside of that, don’t put it past Tauchman to be their most consistent hitter. Benintendi and Vaughn have a lot to prove.

The bottom line is the White Sox are a year away from their best player coming from their talented prospect base. Perhaps then it will be Montgomery or one of those stud pitchers. For now, it’s Robert — though with some doubts about his ability to stay healthy.

Schoenfield: I suppose Robert is the easy answer, given what he did in 2023 (38 home runs, 5.3 WAR). But he’s injury-prone, was terrible last season and might be traded. But there’s also no clear No. 2 choice. If Tauchman is any good, he’ll be traded. Same with Perez. Maybe one of the starting pitchers is good or Schultz comes up and dominates for 15 starts or Chase Meidroth posts a .400 OBP or something. But probably not. So Robert.

Who will be the biggest name traded by the White Sox this season?

Olney: They’ve got a couple of other interesting players on their roster capable of rebounding, like Benintendi, but if Robert plays well, he could be this year’s Crochet, with multiple teams angling to make a deal for him.

Rogers: Definitely Robert. He’s gone in July if he puts up any numbers in the first half.

Schoenfield: Robert is the easy answer, but there’s a scenario where he’s good, all the prospects take off and the White Sox start thinking they could be competitive as soon as 2026 and keep Robert through 2027. So I’ll go with Tauchman.

Will they be the worst team in baseball again — and if not, who will pass them for the honor?

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Olney: No doubt, they will be the worst. The Miami Marlins are a year ahead of Chicago in the rebuild process, and while the Marlins could win a third of their games, that might be a stretch for the White Sox.

Rogers: It’s close between the White Sox and Marlins, but Miami can pitch a little. I’ll say the White Sox finish with the worst record — but still improve by about 15 games!

Schoenfield: I think so. The Marlins might give them a run, especially since they’ll probably trade Sandy Alcantara, but Miami should have a decent enough bullpen to prevent the worst record.



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