Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
St. Louis Cardinals OF Victor Scott II was supposed to be a relevant fantasy option last season, but alas, hitting a baseball isn’t so easy and the noted speedster struggled to get on base. Eventually, when Scott hit .085 through 65 PA, the Cardinals mercifully sent him back to Triple-A Memphis, where Scott surprisingly continued to sputter along, hitting only .210 with a .597 OPS. Fantasy managers in roto/categories formats, so enthralled by the chance of a rookie stealing bundles of bases, were sad. We all were quite sad.
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Don’t be surprised… if Scott becomes the 2025 Cardinals’ best fantasy hitter (at least in roto leagues)
OK, so it’s been one week, and several veteran Cardinals are also off to positive starts at the plate and boast staying power, including the underappreciated 3B Nolan Arenado, steady OF Lars Nootbaar and rejuvenated power prospect OF Jordan Walker, but Scott stands out, too. He enters Thursday hitting .348 with a home run and four stolen bases in as many chances, all coming while (for now) he’s hitting eighth in the lineup.
Milwaukee Brewers 2B Brice Turang was one of only three players to reach 50 stolen bases last season, behind Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz and the incredible Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani. Unlike those fellows, Turang did not hit for power, but still, only 62 hitters finished with more ESPN fantasy points. In roto, however, we really loved him. Tampa Bay Rays SS/2B/3B Jose Caballero, Kansas City Royals 3B/2B Maikel Garcia and Seattle Mariners OF Victor Robles, among myriad others, also run a lot, but they don’t hit baseballs hard or over fences, which is why these players hold lesser value in points leagues.
What if the current version of Scott, who didn’t hit much at all anywhere last season, can replicate what Turang achieved last season, or even more? This certainly feels legit. A bulked-up Scott cranked four home runs in Spring Training as he chased the starting center field job that had seemingly been promised to defensive-minded Michael Siani. Fantasy managers may have assumed Scott would lose that battle or hit a meager .085 again if he had won it. Well, Scott did in fact win the job — as he should have — thanks to the power and improved CF defense. For fantasy purposes, the stolen bases are the big differentiator. He just needs to hit enough to run enough, if that makes sense.
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Arenado was probably faded too much in preseason drafts. I roster him in a few places, where the value of safety and durability was simply too strong, and expect a season like 2023, with 25 homers and 85 RBI. Nootbar, OF Alec Burleson, 2B Nolan Gorman and perhaps Walker should all hit 20 home runs. Willson Contreras, the C-turned-1B, finally earned his first hit on Wednesday, and he will be fine. OF/2B Brendan Donovan is a fine points league option, but only ordinary in roto. SS Masyn Winn will improve. This is a deep offense, really.
All that said, no Cardinals hitter is safely among the top-50 hitters in ESPN ADP. If Scott can hit .260 with high contact while managing 10 home runs and 35 steals — a trifecta that only Ohtani and Cleveland Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez achieved in 2024 (De La Cruz just missed at .259) — then we may have a top-50 points league hitter, and someone far more valuable in roto. Scott should be rostered in way more than 17.7% of leagues, including the points league ones.
Don’t be surprised… if things don’t get significantly better for Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers
Devers is now the team’s full-time DH — and perhaps he’s not happy about it. OK, so Devers got a few hits on Wednesday and lowered his 65% strikeout rate to 55%, but this is one situation where perhaps we don’t trust the numbers on the back of his baseball card. Things have changed, with the shoulder problems, his elongated Spring Training delay in hitting and the controversy moving off third base for Alex Bregman.
Devers looks compromised and, in the smallest of sample sizes, isn’t making contact or swinging the bat as fast and hard as in the past. Perhaps he could still hit .270-something and approach 30 home runs, but I would not trade for him right now as if he is a clear top-50 fantasy option. I worry we may get something like what Colton Cowser or Riley Greene did last season (.240-ish, 24 HR, 75 RBI). That’s fine and usable, but well below Devers’ expectations.
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Don’t be surprised… if the old Toronto Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette is back (to a degree)
I do believe players can have the occasional rough season (due to injury, personal stuff, whatever) and then bounce back after a full offseason. Perhaps Devers will be awesome again in 2026. Bichette went from years of hitting in the .290 range with modest 20-HR power to a frightful .225 batting average with a .322 slugging percentage in his age-26 campaign, mostly explained by calf and finger injuries.
Yes, Bichette had a bad year. He may not steal more than a few bases anymore, but seeing him hit .300 with 20 homers feels like it’s back in play again. His new double play partner, former Guardian Andres Gimenez, has been batting cleanup and aiming to prove his worthiness with three home runs in six games. While that seems unlikely to last, 20 homers for Gimenez isn’t a reach, since he hit 17 in 2022. Still, a 20/30 season would be awesome. Toronto once again has an exciting middle infield to watch.
Don’t be surprised… if Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz debuts in the majors very soon
Maybe even in a month? Yes, that’s an aggressive timeline, since he was drafted only last season (No. 4 overall out of Wake Forest). However, after a fantastic college career that showed off his power and plate discipline, Kurtz is proving he is ready right now. He smacked a few homers in spring games, walked more than he whiffed, and he has started 10-for-21 with three homers at Triple-A Las Vegas. There is little reason to leave him in the minors for months.
Athletics DH Brent Rooker — who will be hitting 50 blasts this season, as I foretold in my preseason Bold Predictions article — can play a corner outfield spot. The Miguel Andujar/Seth Brown left field platoon isn’t blocking him. I’ve already added Kurtz where I could in deeper formats — not for 2027, but for this summer, and summer is coming early.
Don’t be surprised… if I was completely wrong about trusting Atlanta Braves OF Jurickson Profar
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I was expecting Profar to modestly repeat his 2024 numbers, so yeah, this 80-game suspension for violating drug policy has me rankled. Profar, after years of disappointment, shockingly emerged in his age-31 season with stunning numbers across the statistical board (and the durability to play 158 games). He got his big contract and, well, now look at him. See you in late June.
We will never know how much of the stunning 2024 numbers are a direct result of “decisions made.” When San Diego Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr. was suspended in 2022 (and ultimately did not play that season), I wasn’t so skeptical about his future. He was 23, he stole bases, he was still going to be great. Profar? Cut him in ESPN’s shallow leagues with only three outfielders, of course, and I won’t be trading for him in deeper formats, either — not because I am mad at him, but because his future productivity is in question.
Incidentally, you also don’t want Atlanta OF Alex Verdugo (or Jarred Kelenic, Bryan De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild) in a fantasy league. The Braves will not lose all their games, of course, but things have changed (see the Reynaldo Lopez news as well) and this team is no longer an NL playoff lock.
Don’t be surprised… if Colorado Rockies OF/C Hunter Goodman becomes a top-10 fantasy catcher
Why didn’t we believe this a few weeks ago? Well, I did predict Goodman to hit 24 home runs (and walk only 12 times), but I did so while thinking he was going to be Colorado’s backup to the defensive-minded (and old) Jacob Stallings. Through five games, Goodman has started four behind the plate and, in the other game, he was the DH. He’s blasted two home runs and drawn nary a walk — but he is playing, and that is the key.
Goodman remains a work in progress behind the plate, but he is batting cleanup for a (dreadful) team that plays half of its games one mile above sea level. We underestimated the playing time. Now I’m thinking he hits .230 over 450 PA — with 30 homers and, hmm, 24 walks? Folks, that would be a top-10 fantasy catcher.
