Here’s MMAmania.com’s UFC 314 betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?

The mega-stacked UFC 314 is less than 24 hours away …

It all goes down this weekend (Sat., April 12, 2025) from inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. In the main event, former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight kingpin, Alexander Volkanovski, returns to action to try and become a two-time champion, taking on the absolutely red-hot, No. 3-ranked division contender, Diego Lopes.

We’ve started a new series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in Miami when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC 314 betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC 314 odds here).

Before we start, I have some good news. We got back into the win column because Brad Tavares has pillow fists and terrific takedown defense. However, this week might be risky as I’m going underdog hunting again.

We’re 4-1 so far, so let’s keep keeping on below …

Volkanovski vs. Lopes might be the UFC 314 main event, but the co-main event between Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett has much more juice because of the stakes and question marks.

Let’s address the elephant in the room: these two Lightweights’ resumes don’t belong in the same sentence. Chandler’s been battling elite killers since leaving Bellator, holding his own in most fights. If he’d faced Pimblett’s opponents, he’d be undefeated in the UFC too.

Case in point? Chandler obliterated Tony Ferguson, sending his head into the cheap seats (watch highlights), while Pimblett scraped by with a decision against the same guy later.

Now, let’s talk age. “Iron” Mike hits 39 this month, and Father Time’s lurking, especially after the wars he’s endured. Meanwhile, Pimblett, at 30, is just hitting his prime.

Still, I’m betting on the veteran. That’s why I’m grabbing Chandler’s money line at +105.

I can’t see Pimblett winning over five rounds. Chandler’s only been submitted once—by Dustin Poirier, who was losing that fight. Pimblett’s ground game is slick, no doubt, but if Chandler survived Charles Oliveira’s grappling for 25 minutes, he’s likely safe here.

A knockout? Good luck. Justin Gaethje unloaded bombs on Chandler and couldn’t stop him in what turned out to be the “Fight of the Year.” If Pimblett swings wildly like Gaethje, Chandler’s knockout power could end things quick.

Outpointing Chandler might be Pimblett’s best shot. Chandler’s fight IQ is sometimes horrendous, and he’s been known to brawl recklessly. But he knows losing to “The Baddy” isn’t an option.

With his back against the wall, facing a hungry U.K. star, I’m banking on Chandler to deliver.

However, I will say that if there is one person on planet Earth who can go out of his way and find a way to lose to Pimblett, it would be Chandler.

Coach John Kavanagh sees it differently:

GROK AI added this as well:

Youth and Momentum: Pimblett, at 30, is in his prime and undefeated in the UFC with a 6-0 record, including four finishes. His most recent win was a slick submission over Bobby Green at UFC 304, showing he’s improving. Chandler, at 38, is 2-4 in the UFC and coming off back-to-back losses to Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira. Age and wear could be catching up to Chandler, who’s been in wars.

Grappling Edge: Pimblett’s submission game is sharp—half his UFC wins are by submission, and he’s a former Cage Warriors champ with a knack for finding chokes. Chandler’s wrestling is solid, but he’s been controlled on the ground before (e.g., Oliveira at UFC 309). If Pimblett can take it to the mat, he might exploit Chandler’s defensive lapses, especially in a five-rounder where Chandler’s gas tank has shown cracks late.

Striking Improvement: Pimblett’s stand-up was once a weak point, but he’s shown better range management and kicking in recent fights. Chandler’s a wrestle-boxer who loves to slug it out, often leaving his chin exposed. Pimblett could use his 2-inch height and reach advantage to keep Chandler at bay with kicks or catch him lunging in, as Chandler’s aggressive style can be reckless.

Michael Chandler To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +250

Michael Chandler To Win By Submission: +900

Michael Chandler To Win By Decision: +600

Draw: +5000

Paddy Pimblett To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +240

Paddy Pimblett To Win By Submission: +215

Paddy Pimblett To Win By Decision: +1000

Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC 314 pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 314 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 314: “Volkanovski vs. Lopes” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.