The stage is set for one of the most anticipated NBA Finals of the decade. Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs facing the red-hot New York Knicks brings massive star power and one of the league’s marquee franchises into the 2026 NBA Finals.
While San Antonio is ahead of schedule in its Wembanyama championship window after rolling through the Western Conference and eliminating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, New York’s dominant postseason run through the East has the Knicks in position to win their first title in over 50 years.
Knicks fans are clamoring for a title with the franchise’s first Finals appearance since the lockout-shortened 1999 season, when New York lost to San Antonio during Tim Duncan’s second season.
Since New York’s last appearance, the Western Conference has usually produced the favorite entering the series. This season is another example of that, with the Spurs entering the finals as betting favorites over New York. The Spurs are -200 on FanDuel, -205 on DraftKings and -210 on BetMGM to win the Finals. The Knicks are +170 on DK and MGM and +168 on FD. Those odds imply San Antonio has a roughly two-thirds chance of winning the title.Although New York is the underdog playing the road schedule during the series, some analysts still believe the Knicks are the team to beat with the way New York blitzed the Eastern Conference during the playoffs.
The Spurs shocked the basketball world with the Game 7 road victory over the Thunder in the Western Conference finals on Saturday.
With San Antonio on the ropes down 3-2 in the series against the Thunder, the Spurs won back-to-back elimination games to reach the Finals for the first time since 2014. Entering Game 6, the Spurs had +550 odds to win the NBA title while Oklahoma City was -150. After San Antonio’s stunning series win over the Thunder, the Spurs are sizable favorites to beat the Knicks in the Finals.
Oklahoma City was the favorite to win the NBA Finals for the entire season. Since the Thunder were the clear frontrunners, San Antonio’s title odds fluctuated. The Spurs were as low as +6600 odds in October and saw a regular-season low of +4500 odds in late November.
San Antonio wasn’t taken seriously as a true title contender until late December. A convincing win over the Thunder on Christmas and a tight victory over the Knicks on New Year’s Eve pushed the Spurs into the clear No. 2 title favorite as the calendar turned to 2026.
Despite lacking playoff experience entering the postseason, San Antonio is capable of stepping up to the occasion. With Wembanyama’s ability to take over any game, he’s the favorite (-190 on BetMGM, -185 on DraftKings and FanDuel) to win Finals MVP entering the series.
Underdog New York comes in red hot
Riding an 11-game winning streak, the Knicks haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round against Atlanta on April 23. They have routinely blown out opponents with an average margin of 23.7 points per game during the streak. Ten of the 11 Knicks wins were by double digits. The last NBA team to win at least 11 straight postseason games, Golden State in 2017, went on to win the championship.
The Knicks took two out of three games from the Spurs during the regular season and have the personnel to match up against San Antonio. Jalen Brunson looked comfortable against the Spurs during the regular season and presents a major obstacle for San Antonio.
New York will also have a clear rest advantage over the Spurs with a nine-day lay-off by the time the NBA Finals start. With San Antonio overcoming Oklahoma City for an emotional comeback series victory, the Spurs only get three days off before hosting Game 1. New York is also the first team in NBA history to play three teams that were pushed to seven games in the previous series.
Even with New York’s postseason dominance and clear rest advantage, it should come as no surprise that San Antonio is favored against the Knicks. Since New York’s last finals appearance in 1999, the West has now been favored in 24 out of the last 27 NBA Finals, according to Sports Odds History.
Although there’s a clear disparity between the two conferences over the last quarter century, favorites are only 19-7 in the NBA Finals during that span — with all seven underdog winners coming from the Eastern Conference.
Multiple prominent basketball analysts still believe New York is the favorite to win the championship — even before the Western Conference finals were completed.
Jeff Van Gundy told The Athletic’s Ian O’Connor that he believes the Knicks are the favorites based on their current dominant form. Reggie Miller also mentioned during NBC’s broadcast of the Spurs and Thunder series that the Knicks were his favorites as well.
Regardless of outcome, recent NBA Finals with similar odds to 2026 produced some classics. In 2015 and 2016, the Golden State Warriors were -220 favorites both years over the Cleveland Cavaliers (+180 and +190, respectively) in two memorable series that culminated in 2016’s iconic finish.
The 2013 Finals also saw the Miami Heat (-220) as similar favorites over the Spurs (+180) to start another two-year Finals rivalry that resulted in San Antonio’s last title in 2014.
Game 1 of Spurs vs. Knicks is Wednesday in San Antonio. The Spurs are favored by 4.5 points.
