On Friday afternoon, the Philadelphia 76ers confirmed what most of us had long suspected: The left knee of Joel Embiid, their superstar center, is not healthy enough for him to continue playing this season.
The NBA’s schedule will go on, and the Sixers still have roughly six weeks of games to play down the stretch. But now that the Embiid domino has fallen and we have some clarity about his health, we know Philadelphia’s season is also over.
Still, Philadelphia is tinkering with its roster, trying to find hidden talent, trading for Jared Butler and signing Lonnie Walker IV. At 20-38, the Sixers are three games out of the 10th and final Eastern Conference Play-In spot heading into Saturday night’s nationally televised matchup with the Golden State Warriors. No matter what happens in this final run of 24 games, this is a lost season for the Sixers.
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But this lost season can be a one-off, a blip, an anomaly. That’s the good news.
If you are a Sixers fan, this is certainly a bleak moment, so it’s understood if you scoff at the sentiment above. But if the Philadelphia front office handles its business in the offseason, if Embiid can garner the correct treatment and rehabilitation for his knee to come back as the MVP-level player he was two years ago and if the Sixers can retain their first-round draft pick, which is top-six protected, to add a dynamic young talent, the path is there for a return to prominence in the Eastern Conference.
That’s a lengthy list of ifs and, given what we saw from him with his health, Embiid is the biggest. Still, in this bleak scenario, it’s possible to find optimism.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the precedent here. Remember when they lost star point guard Ja Morant in January 2024 to a season-ending injury? Remember when they lost a bunch of starters and rotation guys around him for long periods? The 2023-24 Memphis Grizzlies set an NBA record using 33 players. They used an NBA-record 51 different starting lineups. They had a whopping 578 combined games missed because of injuries and were one of the most injured teams in league history.
They finished 27-55, 13th in the West, 19 games out of the final Play-In spot. They collected the No. 9 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Then they took Zach Edey, who has become an impact starter this season. Ja Morant and the other missing parts of their rotation returned healthy. Heading into Saturday night, they are 38-21 on the season, in the third spot in the Western Conference, and are a contender to make a run deep into the playoffs.
That could be the Sixers. But these are some of the steps that need to be taken, because the Sixers equation is a little more murky than what the Grizzlies were dealing with. First and foremost, the Sixers need to lose. I wrote this in a column last week imploring Philadelphia to shut Embiid down for the remainder of the season. I’ll repeat it here and shout it from the rooftops: Philadelphia needs to lose as many games as possible down the stretch.
The Sixers only keep their first-round pick, which is otherwise owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder if they are in the draft’s top six. The Sixers are currently in the sixth spot in the lottery order. If they stay there, their odds of keeping the pick would be 45.8 percent.
The Sixers are three games behind the Toronto Raptors for the fifth-best lottery odds, which is notable because the teams play each other twice more this season. If Philadelphia were to finish with the fifth-best lottery odds, its chances of keeping the pick would skyrocket to 64 percent.
So, the Sixers need to lose. They should shut Paul George down, which should be an easy sell because he’s already dealing with an injured finger. They should shut down All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey, and explain to him this is for the better good of future Sixers teams. They should be rolling into games starting Jalen Hood-Schifino, whom they signed on Friday to a two-way contract, at point guard.
At this point, every loss is a win. Every win is a loss.
If the Sixers keep their pick, the potential talent on the roster heading into next season has a chance to be formidable. Maxey is a star and has blossomed into one of the most offensively gifted guards in the league. Philadelphia should get Jared McCain, whose season ended in December because of a meniscus tear in his left knee, back in the lineup, which would be significant. The rookie had already made his mark as a weapon shooter and a three-level scorer. He and Maxey could make for an offensively imposing backcourt. What the Sixers have done well is draft, and amid the chaos of this season, their young guys have developed surprisingly well.
Justin Edwards has started nine games and, at minimum, has established himself as a nice rotation player. Adem Bona has had solid moments at the center spot. He’s a backup, but his athleticism, ability to play above the rim and ability to protect the rim defensively give him a high ceiling for improvement.
But this is all a house of cards if Embiid, and to a lesser extent, George, don’t get back to form. What we’ve seen from both players this season has been troubling. Embiid’s ability to explode off the dribble and off the floor were both severely diminished. Because he is so skilled, he was able to score at a high rate with a diet of jumpers. He was still crafty enough to draw fouls. But, the other stuff that truly made him special as an all-around player just weren’t there.
At his best, Embiid is an apex rim protector, and he could not do that this season. At his best, Embiid can guard on the perimeter and he simply could not move laterally. Those attributes made him a unique two-way powerhouse, and it’s a big reason he’s been an MVP in his career. But this season he couldn’t play anywhere close to that level. If the Sixers are going to return to prominence by next season, he has to be healthy. Otherwise, this brief respite could turn into the new normal. Nobody associated with Philadelphia wants that.
A healthy Embiid, with a franchise level point guard such as Maxey, combined with George and McCain represents a significant level of talent, no matter what the remainder of a roster looks like, especially in the generally depth-starved Eastern Conference.
If the Sixers keep their pick, they will add one more significant talent. Then, you have the summer to work out the kinks of the roster with a solid base.
The steps have to be taken. But this season does not have to be the new normal. Like the Grizzlies, it can be a momentary speed bump.
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(Photo of Joel Embiid: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
