Is Cooper Flagg a Rookie of the Year lock? Plus, we preview Wolves and Pistons

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Today is the birthday of two titans in basketball nostalgia history, PJ Brown and Dwayne Schintzius. You’ll remember the glorious mullet of Dwayne, his brilliant role with the all-time cinematic quote of “Ivan make basket” in “Eddie” and his promotion of the Space Ball that involved getting hit in the Hans Molemans. Sadly, he would have turned 57 today, but he passed away in 2012.

I’ll remind you PJ had a good 15-year career, was All-Defense three times and won a title with Boston in 2008. He also received a fifth-place MVP vote in 2005. He averaged 10.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and made 44.6 percent of his shots. He did it on an 18-win Hornets team. Fifth-place MVP vote! Happy birthday to both of these basketball kings! And remember, we need your vote!

Rookie of the Year 🔒?

Flagg’s going to fly away with this … right?

The hype around Dallas Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg has been immense. From his time at Montverde (Fla.) Academy to his sensational age-18 freshman season at Duke, we knew he was going to be the top pick in 2025. We have also seen lots of prognosticating about him being a franchise guy who can’t miss. It’s not the most hype we’ve ever seen, but it’s up there.

And let’s be honest about this: It’s not often a U.S.-born white player projects as a superstar in the NBA. That adds to the “mystique” of him as a prospect. It’s a rarity.

Even though Flagg is on a good Mavs team with a loaded frontcourt, he’s still projected to be the Rookie of the Year for this coming season. BetMGM has Flagg as -225 to win the hardware, while Utah Jazz wing Ace Bailey and Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe are next at +1000. That’s a pretty healthy gap between prospective winners. 🤔

It made me wonder how many No. 1 picks of the last 25 years ended up winning Rookie of the Year. I also wondered if the most hyped top picks won ROY. Granted, that last part is a bit subjective. Let’s start with the top picks.

The good news for Flagg — who doesn’t turn 19 until December — is that the odds are in his favor. Also: good news for Kon Knueppel, the fourth pick of 2025, since the fourth picks have had the second most success. Considering the options on Cooper’s team, it would be kind of shocking to see him lead the rookie class in scoring average. Or maybe he’ll surprise everybody by keeping pace with the rest of his class there.

In the last 25 years, 15 of the Rookie of the Year winners have led the rookie class in scoring average. We can expand that to 17 of the winners with Ja Morant in 2020 (second in scoring average, but Zion Williamson only played 24 games) and Stephon Castle last season (Jared McCain had the highest but only played 23 games).

Maybe that’s where someone like Bailey threatens Flagg for Rookie of the Year. Bailey should get plenty of opportunities to 1) play as much as he desires and 2) get up a lot of shots for a tanking Utah squad. If the Sixers have the same injury problems as last year, Edgecombe could get into the mix.

Other options?

I can’t imagine San Antonio’s Dylan Harper (+1600) or Charlotte’s Knueppel (+1900) will have much of a chance.
Washington Wizards guard Tre Johnson can really shoot the ball, and he’s a good scorer overall. He’s +1100 to win right now, and he could put up a lot of points.
I also would recommend considering Portland’s Yang Hansen (+5000) as a big-time sleeper on the award. He’d have to be undeniable right away, take the starting center job, and actually play like Nikola Jokić (not the production, but the control).

Most likely, this is Cooper’s rookie world, and he’ll run away with it.

The Last 24

Best in the West, ranked

🏀 Top of the West. John Hollinger has his rankings for the Western Conference. Who can beat OKC?

🏀 Alex joins his brothers. How many Antetokounmpos does it take to keep Giannis in Milwaukee? The Bucks hope three!  

🦌 Speaking of Bucks … the Giannis and Myles Turner combination already looks good. Can this be a great two-man combo? 

🏀 Doc speaks. Doc Rivers has never been scared to voice his opinion outside of basketball. He denounced ICE activity in Chicago. 🏀 Embrace debate. Three of our NBA experts discuss who might surprise in the MVP race, which player has the most to prove and more.

He did what now?

Here’s your reminder that Wemby is 7-foot-5

As we’ve discussed several times, I know he’s listed at 7-foot-4. He was listed at 7-foot-3 last season, after being listed at 7-foot-4 as a rookie. I’m still convinced that Victor Wembanyama is 7-foot-5, like we heard when he was a transcendent prospect in France. I feel like I can prove he’s taller than he’s listed with what he did to Jay Huff and the Indiana Pacers last night. Watch this missed free throw by Harrison Barnes.

I’m not sure that legally counts as a hop by Wemby. He’s turning the NBA into a NERF hoop in a bedroom. He’s been a lot more physical in the preseason. He’s learning how to play bigger while still being nimble and lanky. We’re seeing him move giants out of his way. That man is 7-foot-5.

Hope-A-Meter

How much do you believe in your team?

We’ve been conducting a survey of Bouncers (that’s you!) about how  optimistic you feel about your favorite team for the 2025-26 season. So far, the entries and voting from you have been interesting and highly entertaining.

You’re probably wondering how you can vote if you didn’t get the chance to do so already. Fear not, my dear newsletter friends! You can quickly vote right here in this link! It’s just three questions about which teams you’re following or supporting, what your level of optimism is on a scale of 1-10, and then an option section to give a two-sentence reason for your optimism.

We’re going to run the results on the site and on The Bounce next week before the season begins Oct. 21. Vote early and vote often just the once!

Howl of a team

2025-26 Season Preview: Still feeling Minnesota

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been to two straight Western Conference finals. I start off with that fact because it seems to be a dismissed part of their last two years. They weren’t flukey either. Beating the defending champion Denver Nuggets in 2024 was big for putting this franchise on the map again. But they lost both WCF appearances in five games.

Following both eliminations, people have wondered if the Wolves need to change their roster around Anthony Edwards. Last year, they moved Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. They’ve opted for continuity this year and are hoping improvements from Ant and the young guys will be enough to figure it all out. Why doesn’t anybody believe in them? Let’s dive in!

Drama Meter: The Wolves are expensive (fourth-highest payroll) and they’re in the first apron. So maybe coming short of the finals once again would add some drama to how this roster is constructed? Rudy Gobert is 33, so there is a bit of a clock ticking on his part of the roster construction. This all comes down to Edwards’ improvement and how the young guys fill in.

Hot Seat Meter: I don’t think the chance of Chris Finch getting on the hot seat is zero, but I don’t think it’s high either. He’s a fantastic coach who brought them together at the right times. New ownership is very familiar with him, so I doubt they’re itching for a change.

Offseason question: This team was originally constructed to take down Denver, and it did that. But beware because Denver is back and better than before. Oklahoma City has so much versatility that it stretches Minnesota beyond its limits. And the Wolves let Nickeil Alexander-Walker walk for financial reasons, so I’m not sure they’ve answered this question positively.

2026 free agents: Mike Conley | Bones Hyland | Joe Ingles | Leonard Miller (team option) | Jaylen Clark (restricted)

Conley is nearing the end of his career, and the Wolves would love to have Rob Dillingham replace him. It will be probably another season until the Wolves have to worry about making another move for cap reasons.

Expectation for this season: I expect Minnesota to finish third or fourth in the West. The Wolves will win over 50 games, and we’ll see if Ant’s offseason has yielded a player who simply can’t be denied for 100 games instead of 82. I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re in the WCF a third straight year.

Bad Boys 3.0?

2025-26 season preview: Can the Pistons shock us?

What a difference a coach makes! Monty Williams seemed beyond checked out in his lucrative one season with the Detroit Pistons. J.B. Bickerstaff took over last season, and we saw an actual plan, real culture and development for this team. It netted them a 30-win improvement, the No. 6 seed in the East and a spirited six-game loss to New York in the first round.

Now the Pistons go into this season with real expectations and more of a target on their back. They went from a punchline to a puncher. Defense and Cade Cunningham’s ascension have made them feel like a top-six lock. But are their moves of Duncan Robinson, Caris LeVert, and Javonte Green replacing Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Simone Fontecchio good enough to get them deeper in the East? Let’s dive in!

Drama Meter: Even though expectations are much higher, there isn’t really much drama here. I guess the potential restricted free-agent situations for Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren might bring some? But those could also be resolved with extensions before the season starts. This team gets to just explore these new expectations.

Hot Seat Meter: Bickerstaff was exactly what the organization needed and did a great job in his first year. He’s on an extremely cold seat.

Offseason question: It mostly comes from internal development. Half of the rotation is 24 years old or younger, including Cunningham. We’ll see a leap from 22-year-old Ausar Thompson. Duren and Ivey could be massive here. Holland has a chance for a big sophomore season.

2026 free agents: Tobias Harris | Jaden Ivey (restricted) | Jalen Duren (restricted) | Javonte Green

I wonder if they move Harris for a better piece by dangling an asset or two if they think they can challenge for a top-three spot in the East. They’re still so young that they don’t need to get aggressive yet, but they have a lot of options.

Expectation for this season: They should be a top-four team in the East and from there give themselves a great chance at making the second round. I don’t really think they can go beyond that, unless Thompson really gets going, but this is a fun team that could approach 50 wins.