It’s anyone’s series now.
With the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks’ Eastern Conference first-round bout tied at two games a piece and with Game 5 scheduled for Tuesday, James L. Edwards III and Fred Katz got together to break down what has been a chaotic four games.
What Knicks-related storyline are you paying attention to for the rest of the series?
Edwards: Can New York win this series while getting very little out of Mikal Bridges?
To say this has been a difficult period for Bridges would be an understatement. He’s been stuck to the bench for, basically, the final 24 minutes of the last two games. His defense hasn’t been bad, but the offense isn’t there. He’s not shooting it particularly well, and he’s been turning the ball over more than he’s accustomed to.
Knicks coach Mike Brown pushed the right buttons in the Game 4 win by playing both Miles McBride and Jordan Clarkson more minutes than Bridges. My guess is that will continue in Game 5.
McBride has appeared to find his shooting stroke after it went away following his return from hernia surgery. Clarkson is doing the dirty work that only recently became his trademark style. Banking on 45 minutes of guard play from McBride and Clarkson could be risky if the former isn’t making shots and the latter isn’t defending at a good enough level.
Both have answered the call so far, but New York can’t afford for Bridges, McBride and Clarkson to not be productive offensively. In a world where all three don’t have it, it’s hard to see how Atlanta doesn’t steal at least one more game.
Katz: Can Jalen Brunson best the Hawks’ guards?
Through four games, the answer has been no. Atlanta’s defense revolves around the two guys perched at the top of it, Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Both have taken turns on Brunson. Each has found success.
Daniels, especially, has been magnificent. He has cornered Brunson up against the half-court line, using the backcourt as a sixth defender and poking away steals. Normally a ball-control point guard, Brunson had six turnovers in Game 4.
The Hawks have syphoned off driving lanes. Nothing is easy for the Knicks’ ballhandlers — not just Brunson but any of them, including Bridges, who has shied away from dribbling any time one of Atlanta’s thieves is near. The defensive effort and quality has been extraordinary, but that’s never before stopped Brunson from figuring it out over the course of a playoff series.
Will he continue to shoot an unusually low 48 percent in the restricted area? Will he keep running into walls on pick-and-rolls? If Daniels continues to hound him, will he call his own number as often? After Game 3, Brunson called his floor game “not good.” He had only three assists in Game 4, when the Knicks got him off the ball more and turned to Karl-Anthony Towns, who has dominated when given an opportunity in this series, for most facilitation. If Brunson can join Towns at the top of the totem pole, the Knicks won’t be easy to beat.
What Hawks-related storyline are you paying attention to for the rest of the series?
Edwards: Will Jonathan Kuminga find consistency?
In the Hawks’ two victories, Kuminga is shooting 16 of 26 from the floor. In the Hawks’ two losses, Kuminga is shooting 6 of 17.
New York has to give up something, and it’s allowing Kuminga to shoot in the half court while trying to limit him, and others, in transition. The 23-year-old has been all over the place offensively, and Atlanta desperately needs him to not be as bad as he was in Game 4. Daniels, if he’s not the best defender on the planet, has shown to be unplayable at times, and Kuminga, when he’s rolling, has been the one to pick up the slack.
The Hawks can’t afford both Kuminga and Daniels to be negatives offensively. They’re not deep enough. Kuminga has more juice than Daniels does on that end of the floor, but his squeaky jump shot and decision-making makes him a wild card.
Katz: Can Jalen Johnson turn the water back on?
The top dogs on each team, the two Jalens, have both struggled. In Johnson’s case, it’s part of learning about life in the playoffs, where he’s never been.
Johnson’s shooting numbers are down. He’s meeting contact whenever he arrives at the rim. And it’s not often he’s getting there, either. But the missing points from the Hawks’ leading scorer isn’t what stands out most.
Josh Hart has been physical with Johnson. When Johnson drives, Hart cuts him off. When he makes a quick first step, Hart has kept up with him. And with the Knicks’ sparkplug sticking with Johnson one-on-one, New York hasn’t had to converge on him as often, which has limited his playmaking. Johnson isn’t just a large, athletic forward. He’s also Atlanta’s leading creator, but he hasn’t been as effective in that role against New York.
He has made only 13 passes from the paint during the first four games of the series, according to Second Spectrum. He’s not driving to the hoop as often, an ode not just to Hart’s physicality but also his closeouts and urgent transition defense.
Young players sometimes take a playoff series or two before they grow comfortable. For some guys, it takes longer. For others, it never happens at all. But every once in a while, a high-IQ player, like Johnson most certainly is, will figure out how to combat playoff grit in the middle of a series.
Atlanta gets a leg up on the series if Johnson looks more like the likely All-NBA version of himself who dominated during the regular season.
What development over the first four games has surprised you the most?
Edwards: I don’t want to say that I’m surprised — because we saw it a ton toward the end of the regular season — but Hart, four games in, still being the Knicks’ best defender has been the most important angle of New York’s playoff run.
It’s no secret that the worst version of the Knicks comes out when the defense is lacking physicality. That’s been the case since October. Hart has taken serious pride on that end this entire series. He’s stripped Johnson of his pride, and he’s been the only one to make CJ McCollum look mortal.
Hart’s ability to toggle between Atlanta’s two best offensive weapons and really make them work was a big reason why New York dominated Game 4. He made them both miss shots and created turnovers that allowed the slow-paced Knicks to get out in transition and play a little faster.
New York can win games without Hart being a huge factor as a scorer. We’ve seen it time and time again. The Knicks, though, won’t win many games without someone setting the tone defensively, and Hart has done that nonstop, making him, in my opinion, the team’s most important player so far.
Josh Hart has done a little bit of everything for New York in these playoffs. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
Katz: Bridges’ diminished role. James, you touched on this, but I did not see a fall-off like this occurring, especially after he took a step up during last postseason.
This goes beyond shooting or scoring. Bridges has removed himself from the Knicks’ primary actions. With McCollum, the weakest defender in the Hawks’ starting lineup, guarding him much of the time, he’s run only 12 pick-and-rolls. All series. He’s set only 13 ball screens. All series.
Juxtapose that style with McBride’s, and you can better understand why the offense has run better with Bridges, the bigger-name player and still a starter, on the bench. McBride laid eight ball screens for Brunson in the second half of Game 3, when the Knicks came back from down 18 points to inspire a close but ultimately unsuccessful finish. He set seven more in Game 4.
The small-small pick-and-roll has become a reliable weapon for the Knicks in a way it wasn’t with Bridges out there. And so, he continues to sit, which isn’t surprising. That it became so extreme so quickly is the shocker.
Who is your X-factor for Games 5, 6 and (potentially) 7?
Edwards: It’s McBride for me. I would go with OG Anunoby because he’s playing tremendously, but he’s too good to be considered an X-factor.
Until further notice, Brown is going to play McBride as much or more than Bridges, with hopes of getting consistent shooting, secondary ballhandling and feisty defense.
McBride takes a lot of high-variance shots, and while he’s made them over the last two games, what happens when/if the 3-ball isn’t falling? Can he defend McCollum or whomever consistently without fouling? Can he avoid the live-ball turnovers that he had in the Game 2 and Game 3 losses?
It’s a lot to ask of someone not that far removed from hernia surgery, but Brown is putting a lot on McBride’s plate. And because no one knows what to expect from Bridges on a game-to-game basis, the Knicks need McBride to provide stability alongside Brunson.
Katz: Mitchell Robinson.
Robinson has barely played over the first four games, only 59 minutes total. And Brown has explained why.
For the 7-footer to crest above that number, he and Towns would have to play next to each other. But the Hawks start with an undersized center (Onyeka Okongwu) and four perimeter players, which doesn’t lend itself to friendly defensive matchups, he has said. Surely, the Hawks’ willingness to foul Robinson intentionally, sending a line-drive free-throw shooter to the stripe, has played into his limited playing time, too.
Yet, Robinson is an essential contributor, a defensive anchor and rebound fiend. In many ways, the smaller Hawks are an ideal matchup for him. He performed well against them during the regular season. He gobbled up five offensive rebounds in only 15 minutes during Game 4’s win.
Brown has placed both Robinson and Towns on smalls in other contexts. Both of them have guarded Daniels — a guard who operates more like a center on offense, constantly screening and cutting to the hoop — at different points. Both have taken Okongwu, too. But Brown would have to rejigger how early Robinson enters games, maybe to an impossible fashion, to make sure he and Towns are out there at the same time as Daniels and a center.
Even if Robinson continues to not play much, he can swing a game with his work on the glass or a key block.
