As the 2024-25 NBA regular season winds down, teams turn their attention to the postseason. Others began strategizing for the lottery.
The NBA regular-season awards are also right around the corner, with the biggest storyline being which Western Conference superstar will claim MVP.
It appears there are no clear winners for any of these major awards, with Defensive Player of the Year wide open and Sixth Man of the Year up for grabs.
NBA insiders Zach Kram, Tim MacMahon, Chris Herring, Jamal Collier and Tim Bontemps answer some of the biggest questions surrounding the league’s biggest regular-season awards, including their picks.
Jokic and SGA are the front-runners for MVP. Who deserves it more?
Zach Kram: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on pace to become the 10th player in NBA history to win the scoring title while leading his team to the league’s best record. Eight of the previous nine players who did so won the MVP; the only exception was Michael Jordan’s second-place finish in 1996-97, when Karl Malone won the award in a massive upset. But Gilgeous-Alexander has also broken Nikola Jokic’s seemingly ironclad grip on the top of the advanced stats leaderboards. Even the all-in-one metrics that factor in Jokic’s league-leading on/off differential, like estimated plus-minus and LEBRON, say SGA has been a slightly more valuable player this season.
Tim MacMahon: There isn’t a single valid knock against the cases of Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander, but you can only pick one. Michael Malone and Denver Nuggets fans don’t want to hear this, but if it’s even, I’d go with the guy who hasn’t won the award yet over the three-time MVP, mainly because the former’s team has a double-digit cushion in the West standings. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in scoring by 352 points and with a plus/minus of 911 — both loud indicators that this is his season.
Chris Herring: Part of me feels this whole season — the dominant winning, the four 50-point showings — has been a deserving coronation for Gilgeous-Alexander, whose team is lapping the field in the West. Traditionally, he’d be a crystal-clear MVP choice. On the other hand, Jokic is playing some of the best basketball of his career, one that already includes three MVPs and an NBA championship. His team has been worlds better with him on the court, whereas OKC has been better with SGA, but still great when he’s off the court. Depending on how you parse out “value,” I’d understand Joker being the pick. But I’d have a tough time not handing the award to SGA this season.
Tim Bontemps: This might seem like a funny answer coming from the person who conducts multiple straw polls throughout the season to gauge where the MVP race sits, but this award rarely is about who deserves it more, and it isn’t the case this year. Both guys fully deserve it and are having remarkable seasons. But that’s also what makes the choice so complicated in most seasons, and especially in this one: You’re choosing between two people who have pretty unassailable cases.
Jamal Collier: SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder have been on a dominant path all season, lapping the field in an extraordinarily tight Western Conference while Gilgeous-Alexander is on pace to win the scoring title and is near the top of the leaderboards in most of the advanced metrics. He’s been the favorite for some time, and this feels like his year to be crowned.
Draymond Green says the DPOY race is wide open with Victor Wembanyama out. Who has the best case?
MacMahon: Luguentz Dort is the most dominant and impactful defender on by far the league’s stingiest defense. In a season with no clear-cut favorite, he’s the candidate that I would lean toward. He doesn’t have the eye-popping numbers typically required for this award, averaging 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks, but a poll of the Thunder would result in a unanimous vote for Dort. His physical tenacity while always taking the toughest defensive assignment sets the tone for Oklahoma City, which has allowed only seven 30-point games to opposing players this season. The league’s elite scorers rarely test Dort in isolation — and for good reason, as he has allowed only 0.64 points per possession in those situations.
Bontemps: This is one I’m still trying to get my arms around with a couple of weeks left in the regular season. Evan Mobley has a case, as does Jaren Jackson Jr. I would also say Green has an argument, and would put Clippers center Ivica Zubac in that conversation, too. Mostly, though, I’d agree with his assessment that it’s as wide open as any award conversation in recent memory, and I’m very curious to see how it unfolds.
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Kram: This is such a tough call because the top five teams by defensive rating — the Thunder, LA Clippers, Orlando Magic, Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics — are all so effective because of group efforts and coaching, rather than being led by a single standout stopper. In the absence of any obvious favorite, I wonder if Dort could win as a representative for the Thunder’s dominance, in the same way that Marcus Smart took home the award in 2021-22. But it’s far more likely (and understandable) for a big man to win DPOY, which is why Mobley and Green are the leading candidates for now.
Herring: I think I’d lean toward Draymond for now. His IQ and effort have shown through all season for a team that desperately needed to be good, if not great, on defense with Stephen Curry being the lone offensive leader for much of the season. Shooters have managed just a 54% success rate around the basket when Green is the one defending it, down more than nine percentage points from their averages. The 35-year-old, averaging more than one steal and one block per game, would be the oldest player to win the award. I think whoever wins will benefit from OKC having so many noteworthy defenders that no single Thunder player has a real chance to finish first.
Collier: It is really a shame Wemby won’t get to be rewarded for what he’s done on defense in his first two seasons in the league. I’ve still never seen anyone change the shot selection for so many NBA players simply by his mere presence in the paint. With him out, this award feels like it is without a clear front-runner. Memphis Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. and Cleveland Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley, especially with a projected lack of award winners from the rest of the Cavs roster, seem like the two best bets.
Which player in the running for the Most Improved award has the biggest runway to becoming a solidified superstar?
Herring: Cade Cunningham, I guess? He’s arguably already a superstar, and that’s my issue. To me, Cunningham — who averaged 23, 4 and 8 last season — was already a star, one so good that considering him for Most Improved this season feels odd. I haven’t loved the recent trend of choosing guys who were already averaging 20 or more the prior season. I guess it depends on what you see as the tougher mountain to scale: going from an obscure, end-of-bench guy to a legitimately good player, or going from borderline stardom to superstardom. I’ve always preferred the former for the MIP award.
Collier: I’m with Herring in that I don’t think a player like Cunningham should even be considered for this award. Or a guy like Amen Thompson, a top-five pick in his second year in the league. The guy I’d point to, who has a slightly higher upside than I would have projected a year ago, is Tyler Herro. Herro was a deserving All-Star this year and did a good job carrying the Miami Heat earlier this season with Jimmy Butler III out.
Bontemps: This is another one where both of my leading choices — Cunningham and Evan Mobley — can make this argument. Cunningham has led the Detroit Pistons to its best season in a generation and has assumed deserving All-Star status as a big lead guard for the Pistons. Mobley, meanwhile, has also taken a big step forward this season, becoming a deserving All-Star as one of the more versatile bigs in the league.
Kram: The combination of Mobley’s offensive improvements — he’s posting career-best numbers in usage rate and efficiency — and defensive brilliance give him the highest two-way ceiling of any player in this category. Last year’s concerns about Mobley’s apparent stagnation look foolish in retrospect; he made his first All-Star team this season and should be a mainstay for years to come.
MacMahon: Cunningham proved this season that he can be the engine of a winning team. He finally had a chance to play on a competitive team, thanks to the arrival of Coach of the Year candidate J.B. Bickerstaff and the additions of some competent veteran shooting threats (Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasley), who provided Cunningham room to breathe in half-court sets. A big guard with a great feel who averages 25.7 points and 9.2 assists as a 23-year-old can claim he’s on a superstar trajectory.
Since 2012, there have been only two Sixth Man winners to become All-Stars (James Harden, Tyler Herro). Which candidate this year could buck that trend?
Bontemps: My list is going to start and end with Celtics guard Payton Pritchard, so I would argue no one is going to buck the trend this year. Pritchard has been a terrific story and has developed into a core piece for Boston on one of the best contracts in the league. But even his most ardent supporters wouldn’t be touting him as a future All-Star.
Kram: I agree with Bontemps that nobody is likely to buck the trend this year, as none of the top candidates for the award — Pritchard, Malik Beasley and the underrated Ty Jerome — are likely to become All-Stars at any point. So I’ll cheat and pick Russell Westbrook, who has a strong case for down-ballot consideration as the effective sixth man for the Nuggets, and who might receive an honorary All-Star berth in his eventual final season, a la Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade.
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MacMahon: Houston Rockets’ Amen Thompson would have been a good answer, but he moved into the starting lineup for good midway through the season. I don’t see a rising future All-Star among the top Sixth Man of the Year candidates this season.
Herring: Pritchard will win easily. But for this question, I’d put my money on someone like Naz Reid, who could garner some down-ballot votes after having won the award last season. He’s versatile on both ends, highly efficient and has proved to do serious damage when he gets starter’s minutes. In the 17 games he’s started this season, the 25-year-old has logged 18.3 points, nine rebounds and 3.2 assists. In a more featured role, he could be an All-Star someday.
Collier: Talk to anyone around Minnesota and they’ll start raving about Naz Reid. He’s unlikely to win the award this year after winning it last season, but Reid has become so important to the Minnesota Timberwolves ecosystem that it’s possible he could break through one day and join Anthony Edwards for an All-Star appearance.
Fact or fiction: The league should tweak the 65-game rule — or lose it entirely?
Herring: Fact. I never loved the implementation of the rule anyway. I’ve liked it even less after hearing someone like Tyrese Haliburton acknowledge that he’s pushed to play through discomfort for the sake of award eligibility, which triggers supermax eligibility. More than anything, I take issue with the fine print of the 65-game rule, which still leaves a handful of players — like Donte DiVincenzo, who played in 81 games last season — ineligible for stuff they would otherwise be clear candidates for.
Kram: Fact, especially for honors with multiple “winners,” like the All-Defensive and All-NBA teams. Through no fault of their own, many defensive specialists don’t play enough minutes across 65 games to qualify for consideration. And the league’s brightest stars can provide more overall value in, say, 60 games than lesser players can produce in 82, so it’s not a proper account of the season if they can’t be rewarded. The All-Rookie teams already don’t abide by the 65-game rule, and All-Defense and All-NBA should follow suit.
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MacMahon: Keep it but drop the minutes limit, especially for the All-Defensive teams. It’s unfortunate that the league needs to encourage its stars to play as often as possible — or perhaps incentivize their teams not to sit the stars — but it’s a reality in the modern NBA.
Bontemps: Fact. I’ve never been in favor of it and the rule hasn’t had a massive impact on things because people typically didn’t vote for a player below the 65-game threshold anyway. I would just trust the voters to make informed decisions, as they have proven it year after year.
Collier: Fact. Never been a fan, it’s a rule that solved an issue that didn’t exist.
