With just over two weeks remaining in the NBA season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape.
The 10 teams that will go into the post-season from each conference are now set, but questions remain about what the final standings will look like.
In the East, the one-to-four seeds are nearly complete, but there is quite a logjam from fifth to 10th. Just 3.5 games separate the fifth-place Toronto Raptors and the 10th-place Charlotte Hornets.
As for the West, the questions revolve around whether the Oklahoma City Thunder can hold onto the top seed. Their lead over the Spurs is just 2.5 games, and San Antonio has a game in hand over the defending champions.
The West’s play-in tournament is mostly solidified with the No. 6 Houston Rockets 3.5 games up on the No. 7 seed Phoenix Suns. The chance of the Suns passing the Rockets is slim with so little time left, but they should have home-court advantage for play-in games with a six-game lead over the 10th-place Golden State Warriors.
The East’s fight for a top-six finish
The Detroit Pistons have turned around their franchise over the past two seasons. After winning just 14 games in 2023-24, they have now clinched a second-straight playoff berth and are on the verge of clinching their first Central Division title since 2008.
The Pistons hold a four-game advantage over the Boston Celtics, who have also clinched their playoff spot, for the East’s top seed. Detroit can achieve its division title by beating the Raptors on Tuesday (8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+), but Toronto will be fighting for a victory to avoid falling below sixth place.
The Raptors, who are dealing with multiple injuries, are just barely holding onto fifth place. Their inability to defeat good teams has hindered their ability to be looked at as a serious contender. They’ve gone 2-1 over the last week, but that one loss was a 25-point beatdown from the Los Angeles Clippers.
Toronto has an easy schedule for the rest of the way, with five of its eight games against teams beneath it in the standings.
The Raptors will need to maintain composure with the scorching-hot Atlanta Hawks tied with them in the standings. The Hawks are 17-3 since Feb. 19 (the third most wins in the NBA) with their duo of Jalen Johnson and Canadian Nickeil Alexander-Walker both in the midst of career years.
It doesn’t get much easier behind the Hawks, with the Philadelphia 76ers finally back at full strength. Tyrese Maxey returned early from a finger injury, Joel Embiid got back in the lineup and Paul George finished serving his suspension for violating the league’s drug policy.
This trio has practically never gotten the chance to get an extended run together, but with a playoff spot on the line, it may finally be time to show the world why Daryl Morey spent so much money on all of them.
Beyond the top seven, it does appear to become a weaker fight with the Orlando Magic, Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets. The Magic have gone .500 through March, and the Heat are at 8-7, while the Hornets had a good run at 9-5.
Orlando suffered its worst loss ever with a 53-point blowout at the hands of the Raptors on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Heat’s Bam Adebayo voiced his displeasure with possibly being in the play-in for the fourth straight season.
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“I don’t want to be in the f—— play-in,” Adebayo said after a recent string of losses.
These six teams battling to get out of the play-in will take the court seven times over the next week. Here is when those crucial matchups take place:
Raptors at Pistons – March 31, 8 p.m. ET (Sportsnet, Sportsnet+)
Hawks at Magic – April 1, 7 p.m. ET
Celtics at Heat – April 1, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pistons at 76ers – April 4, 7 p.m. ET
Raptors at Celtics – April 5, 3:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet, Sportsnet+)
Knicks at Hawks – April 6, 7 p.m. ET
Pistons at Magic – April 6, 7 p.m. ET
The West is a whole different story from the East; on this side of the standings, there should be little to no movement from seventh to 10th place.
The top teams in the conference have done their jobs and have maintained records well above .500 to ensure themselves a chance to compete for the Larry O’Brien trophy. The Thunder, Spurs, Lakers, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Rockets will most likely make up the top six seeds, but the order in which they will finish is unclear.
It will definitely be one of the Thunder or Spurs finishing first. They have been the best two teams all season, and of their last 15 games, each has won 14.
Where the difference may come in is in their remaining few games. OKC has just six games left and the fourth-hardest schedule remaining in the NBA, per Tankathon. They will face the Lakers twice, the Nuggets, the Clippers and the Suns in this final stretch.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have the 14th-toughest schedule left and maintain a game in hand on the Thunder, with seven left to play. San Antonio also has the advantage of not needing to pass OKC; they just need to tie them in the standings, as they won the season series 4-1.
The Nuggets have also gotten hot in the midst of a six-game win streak and are 8-2 in their last 10. However, Denver has the misfortune of having to face the Spurs twice and the Thunder once in their final six games.
Behind the top two, just 3.5 games separate the No. 3 Lakers and No. 6 Rockets. The Lakers have gone 14-2 in March and recently won nine straight games, with Luka Doncic averaging 37.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 7.1 assists and 2.3 steals per game in the month.
In fifth place is the Timberwolves, who cannot now be counted out to jump a few spots in the standings with Anthony Edwards returning to the lineup on Monday. Edwards had missed six games, but having his near 30-point per game production gives them a fighting chance on any night.
The Rockets are the least likely of the bunch to jump up the standings due to their recent level of play. In March, they’ve had an 8-7 record, more losses than any of the teams they’re chasing. It’s not to say they don’t have a shot; any team with one of the greatest scorers of all time, Kevin Durant, could go on a run if they find their groove.
The top 10 seeds in the West will be in action five times against one another over the next week. Here is when we will see some decisive matchups and potential playoff previews:
Spurs at Warriors – April 1, 10 p.m. ET
Lakers at Thunder – April 2, 9:30 p.m. ET
Spurs at Clippers – April 2, 10:30 p.m. ET
Spurs at Nuggets – April 4, 3 p.m. ET
Rockets at Warriors – April 5, 10 p.m. ET
